Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The main issue in the bond market currently is the lack of incremental funds, but factors such as central bank's support for funds and weak growth momentum are beneficial to the bond market. The market should operate based on technical indicators, and currently, indicators like RSI are in the oversold range [2][15]. - The market may underestimate the long - term impact of real estate events. Despite high expectations for "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026, the bond market should adopt an "oversold buying, over - bought selling" strategy [19]. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation This Week - The bond market declined significantly this week. The participation of public funds and securities firms decreased, and funds have been net sellers of interest - rate bonds for 7 consecutive trading days, forming a strong resonance with securities firms on Wednesday and Thursday [2]. - News about the new fund redemption rules and emotional concerns about fund redemptions affected the market, causing significant declines on Wednesday [2]. Market Phenomena Observed - Futures led the decline in cash bonds, but the allocation power of cash bonds remained, with the entry of insurance funds increasing recently [6]. - Banks' buying power of cash bonds was weaker than in October, indicating that the overall scale of the central bank's bond - buying might be average [6]. - Funds were relatively stable. On Friday, the overnight DR001 for cross - month dropped to around 1.3%. The central bank's attitude towards funds was dovish, so cash bonds outperformed futures [6]. - Banks' behavior of increasing allocation, redeeming bond funds, selling OCI, and buying short - term bonds has been present since October, and the stage of large - scale redemptions this year may have passed [6]. Credit Bond ETF Situation - There were concerns about the redemption of credit - bond ETFs, but the overall scale of credit - bond ETFs did not decline significantly. However, there was structural differentiation among products [8]. - Among interest - rate products, ultra - long - term bond products had obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in a week [11]. - For credit - type ETFs, there was a net outflow of 535 million yuan in a week. Short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and an outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, while science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [11]. Impact of Real Estate Bond Credit Events - A new important real - estate bond credit event had little impact on the market. The trading impact was only about 10BP, and it was unlikely to cause a chain negative reaction [15]. - The event did not lead to interest - rate trading for monetary policy easing expectations. The market believed that the credit of real - estate enterprises was "market - based", and there might be no corresponding aggregate policy support [17]. - In the short term, it was reasonable for the market to have such a reaction, as real estate/house prices have been decoupling from various assets this year [17]. - However, the market may have underestimated the long - term impact of real - estate events. There is still significant pressure to stabilize growth in Q1 2026, but the market has a surprisingly consistent view on "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026 [19].