1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, most yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.43%. In December, the central bank's net investment through treasury bond trading was 500 million yuan, lower than market expectations. Domestically, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December both rebounded and returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the US raid on Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro caused geopolitical shocks. The Fed's December meeting minutes indicated a divergence among officials, with most expecting looser monetary policy in the future if inflation declines as expected. Overall, the rebound in December's manufacturing PMI suggests a possible marginal improvement in economic indicators. The new regulations on fund redemptions have relaxed requirements for bond funds, alleviating market concerns and reducing redemption pressure. Interest rates may enter a phased repair window but are still subject to the suppression of a strong equity market and the supply pressure of government bonds in the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main - contracts decreased by 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.31% respectively [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of T, TS, and TL main - contracts increased by 1165, 4332, and 14958 respectively, while the trading volume of TF main - contract decreased by 327 [2]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: Most price spreads showed an upward trend [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL main - contracts increased by 3499, 3110, and 3705 respectively, while the position of TS main - contract decreased by 1428. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased by 3807, 701, and 2250 respectively, while the net short position of TL increased by 639 [2]. 3.2 Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of most CTD bonds declined [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10 - year active treasury bonds all increased, with increases ranging from 0.25bp to 1.38bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2435%, 1.4057%, and 1.4300% respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2630%, 1.4220%, and 1.4650% respectively. The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.65bp, 3.43bp, and 1.00bp respectively, Shibor overnight and 7 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, and Shibor 14 - day interest rate increased by 0.80bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 6, 2026, the issuance scale of open - market operations was 16.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 312.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 296.3 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In December 2025, the central bank had a net investment of 500 million yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 1000 million yuan through MLF, and a net investment of 71 million yuan through SLF [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate over 100 billion yuan in funds to support Yangtze River protection projects and will establish a unified cross - regional ecological compensation mechanism in the Yangtze River mainstream [2]. - On January 5, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US and pleaded "not guilty" in court. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting, and China called on the US to ensure Maduro's safety and resolve the issue through dialogue [3]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 7, 18:00, Eurozone CPI preliminary value for December 2025 - January 9, 21:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for December 2025 [5]

Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The main issue in the bond market currently is the lack of incremental funds, but factors such as central bank's support for funds and weak growth momentum are beneficial to the bond market. The market should operate based on technical indicators, and currently, indicators like RSI are in the oversold range [2][15]. - The market may underestimate the long - term impact of real estate events. Despite high expectations for "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026, the bond market should adopt an "oversold buying, over - bought selling" strategy [19]. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation This Week - The bond market declined significantly this week. The participation of public funds and securities firms decreased, and funds have been net sellers of interest - rate bonds for 7 consecutive trading days, forming a strong resonance with securities firms on Wednesday and Thursday [2]. - News about the new fund redemption rules and emotional concerns about fund redemptions affected the market, causing significant declines on Wednesday [2]. Market Phenomena Observed - Futures led the decline in cash bonds, but the allocation power of cash bonds remained, with the entry of insurance funds increasing recently [6]. - Banks' buying power of cash bonds was weaker than in October, indicating that the overall scale of the central bank's bond - buying might be average [6]. - Funds were relatively stable. On Friday, the overnight DR001 for cross - month dropped to around 1.3%. The central bank's attitude towards funds was dovish, so cash bonds outperformed futures [6]. - Banks' behavior of increasing allocation, redeeming bond funds, selling OCI, and buying short - term bonds has been present since October, and the stage of large - scale redemptions this year may have passed [6]. Credit Bond ETF Situation - There were concerns about the redemption of credit - bond ETFs, but the overall scale of credit - bond ETFs did not decline significantly. However, there was structural differentiation among products [8]. - Among interest - rate products, ultra - long - term bond products had obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in a week [11]. - For credit - type ETFs, there was a net outflow of 535 million yuan in a week. Short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and an outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, while science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [11]. Impact of Real Estate Bond Credit Events - A new important real - estate bond credit event had little impact on the market. The trading impact was only about 10BP, and it was unlikely to cause a chain negative reaction [15]. - The event did not lead to interest - rate trading for monetary policy easing expectations. The market believed that the credit of real - estate enterprises was "market - based", and there might be no corresponding aggregate policy support [17]. - In the short term, it was reasonable for the market to have such a reaction, as real estate/house prices have been decoupling from various assets this year [17]. - However, the market may have underestimated the long - term impact of real - estate events. There is still significant pressure to stabilize growth in Q1 2026, but the market has a surprisingly consistent view on "strong stocks and weak bonds" in 2026 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]