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房地产行业周度观点更新:出口承压时期的地产演绎路径-2025-04-06
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-06 09:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [15]. Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is significantly more proactive, and market expectations have improved. Although there is a seasonal decline in volume and price, resilience remains. A trend reversal will take time, but the sharp decline in volume has likely ended, bringing housing prices closer to equilibrium. The most challenging period for the industry may be passing, with structural highlights in core regions and quality properties. The current stock positions for quality real estate stocks are not far from their bottom, and the importance of real estate in the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked. Attention should be paid to quality real estate companies with core assets, local leaders benefiting from debt reduction, and central state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows [8][12]. Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.86%, with an excess return of +0.51% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 19th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.72%, with an excess return of -1.85% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 25th out of 32 [9][19]. Policy Updates - Nanjing has fully lifted housing transfer restrictions, while Guangzhou has clarified its construction plans for commodity and affordable housing for 2025. Nanjing's recent meeting emphasized support for young homebuyers and the acceleration of housing supply to meet demand [10][21]. Sales Data - New home registrations in sample cities have shown a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transactions remain high. The new home transaction area in 37 cities increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in 19 cities saw a 35.5% increase [11][23]. Economic Impact of Export Pressure - The pressure on exports has two transmission paths affecting the real estate cycle: one through economic factors like employment and income, and the other through more proactive domestic demand policies in response to external risks. The strength of economic versus policy effects depends on policy goals and intensity. Historical data supports this, indicating that the current real estate industry still faces adjustment pressure, with policies focused on risk prevention, making it difficult to expect a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [3][12].