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国泰海通 · 晨报0923|机械、固收
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages in the current changing external environment and policy dynamics [3]. Macro Summary - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [3]. Cost Tracking - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan slightly depreciated, while the euro appreciated against the yuan [4]. - The shipping costs for various routes, including Europe, the U.S. East Coast, the U.S. West Coast, and Southeast Asia, have decreased year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive index of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1125.30, down 38.11% year-on-year and 2.07% month-on-month [4]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The U.S. restaurant industry saw a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.7 in July, down 0.3% from June [5]. - The U.S. housing market index in September was 32, down 21.95% year-on-year, with existing home inventory increasing by 15.67% year-on-year [5]. - U.S. wholesale sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month in July, while retail sales rose by 0.6% in August [5]. - The export volume of golf carts from China decreased by 5.85% month-on-month and 72.12% year-on-year in July [5]. - Motorcycle exports from China saw a month-on-month decline of 3.17% but a year-on-year increase of 24.42% in August [5]. Recent Activities - The article mentions various upcoming industry events and reports, including discussions on transportation, new energy, electronics, coal, agriculture, and home appliances [20].