2026.03. 11 本文字数：2324，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 近日，新华社披露《第十四届全国人民代表大会财政经济委员会关于2025年中央和地方预算执行情况与2026年中央和地方预算草案的审查结果报告》 《下称报告》 ， 称2025年预算执行情况总体较好，2026年预算草案总体可行，建议批准预算报告和中央预算草案。 全国人大财经委还对做好今年预算执行和财政工作给出6项建议，其中一项是积极有序化解地方债务风险。 今年政府工作报告在部署2026年政府工作任务时，要求积极有序化解地方政府债务风险。今年预算报告在部署2026年七大财政改革发展重点工作之 一，是加强地方政府债务管理。 显然今年政府将继续着力解决地方债问题。对此，根据上述《报告》，全国人大财经委给出六大建议： ·优化中央和地方政府债务结构，加快构建同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理长效机制。 ·督促加强对地方政府专项债券项目的效益评估，做好融资收益平衡，强化收益归集，防范专项债偿付风险。 ·严格政府投资项目管理，不得违规新增隐性债务，强化问责处理。 ·优化债务重组和置换办法，加大对非标、"双非"等债务化解的支持力度，推动融资平台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][3][4]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The conference reiterates the need for a proactive fiscal policy while highlighting the importance of fiscal management and addressing local fiscal difficulties [2][4]. - The expected budget deficit for 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, corresponding to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, with local government special bonds potentially increasing to 4.5 trillion yuan [3]. Policy Stability and Optimization - The tone of the meeting indicates a shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," suggesting a focus on maintaining stability in fiscal policy rather than aggressive increases in spending [4][5]. - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue, with a greater emphasis on service consumption and significant projects aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Tax System and Local Government Revenue - There is a call to improve the local tax system, with potential adjustments to the proportion of shared taxes to stabilize local government revenues [6]. - The meeting highlights the need for a flexible monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices, with tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions being considered [6][7]. Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - The focus on debt management includes optimizing debt restructuring methods and addressing risks associated with local government financing platforms [8]. - The scale of hidden local government debt is expected to decrease significantly, with estimates suggesting it could fall to around 6.5 to 7 trillion yuan by the end of the year [8]. Government Debt Issuance - Predictions indicate that in 2026, the total issuance of special government bonds could reach 2 trillion yuan, alongside 2 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts, leading to an overall increase in government debt of approximately 14.4 trillion yuan [9].