Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been continuously rebounding recently, but the expected upside is limited. The reasons for the rebound are the escalating Iran situation, the continuous low - level of CPC crude oil exports, and the short - term large - scale buying due to the annual re - balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index funds. In the future, the impact of commodity index funds will dissipate, and the Iran situation has been controlled in the short term, with no impact on the actual supply chain [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a 2.51% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.90% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - Venezuela's crude oil production dropped significantly from 1.16 million barrels per day at the end of November 2025 to about 880,000 barrels per day last week. PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to restore production and is preparing for an internal audit and new business and investment after a cyber - attack [1] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have been lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran. They warned that overthrowing the Iranian regime would disrupt the oil market and harm the US economy [1] - The US government has applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. US military and coast guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks. Although the transportation has resumed under US supervision, the government has filed multiple civil forfeiture lawsuits [1] Investment Logic - The reasons for the recent oil price rebound are the escalating Iran situation, low CPC crude oil exports, and short - term buying from index fund re - balancing. In the future, these factors will weaken, and the actual supply chain remains unaffected [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advisable [3] Risks - Downside risks include the reaching of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events. Upside risks are supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]