All right, so let's get into this. Al Lima, these tensions with Venezuela between the US, we've actually seen oil prices decline since then. That seems very counterintuitive, which to what you would expect.The idea that there's tensions between the US and Venezuela that could potentially knock some of that capacity online. Why are oil prices going down with that. Well, I don't think they're moving on the Venezuelan story.I think market participants are not especially focused on the significant US naval pres ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year, following OPEC+'s decision to increase production, while also adjusting the demand growth forecast upward due to resilient oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Supply Forecast - The IEA has increased its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [1] - This adjustment reflects the impact of OPEC+ production increases and the growing global oil inventory [1] Demand Forecast - The IEA has raised its oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The increase in demand is attributed to the resilience of oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Market Dynamics - The oil market is influenced by multiple factors, including potential supply losses due to new sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+ production increases and rising global oil inventories [1]

Group 1 - The recent oil market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) show significant divergence in their assessments, which is historically rare [1][2] - OPEC's monthly report is optimistic, raising the forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by stronger economic activity in key regions [1] - In contrast, the IEA report is pessimistic, indicating that global oil inventories are increasing at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation during the pandemic in 2020 [2] Group 2 - OPEC has consistently agreed to increase production to capture market share, reflecting its optimistic outlook on demand [1] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, primarily from the Americas [2] - The contrasting views of OPEC and the IEA highlight the current tensions in the oil market, with the market seemingly leaning towards a weakening demand side, which may continue to pressure oil prices [2]

美国石油学会在12日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比增加150万桶；汽油库存环 比下降180万桶，蒸馏油库存则环比增加30万桶。 新华财经纽约8月13日电（记者刘亚南）由于上周美国商业原油库存增加和国际能源署对石油市场供需 预期恶化，国际油价在隔夜市场走弱，13日早盘明显走低，午后跌幅收窄，收盘时国际油价下跌。 美国"重新投资"资本公司创始合伙人约翰·基尔达夫（John Kilduff）表示，由于关税带来冲击，美国原 油出口量依然低于以往水平。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.52美元，收于每桶62.65美元，跌幅 为0.82%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.49美元，收于每桶65.63美元，跌幅为0.74%。 国际能源署在13日发布的月度石油市场报告预计，今年和明年全球日均原油供应量将分别增加250万桶 和190万桶，高于此前预期的210万桶和130万桶。报告同时预计，今年和明年全球日均石油需求分别增 加68.5万桶和69.9万桶，低于此前预测的70.4万桶和72.2万桶。 美国能源信息局在当日发布的数据显示，美国上周商业原油库存量为4.267亿桶， ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, providing price data, market news, and trend analysis [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may continue to strengthen and challenge the $85 mark. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]. - The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The Israel-Iran conflict has made the shipping industry uneasy, with many vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the number of ships passing through and an expected increase in shipping costs [2]. - The US API reported a -22.8 million barrels per day change in crude oil production, a 34.9 million barrels per day change in refined oil imports, and a -1013.3 million barrels change in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 [2]. - The CPC Blend crude oil exports from the Black Sea will remain at 165 million barrels per day in July [2]. - Russia's President Putin will hold talks with the OPEC Secretary-General on the oil market on June 20 [2]. - The UAE plans to increase its energy investment in the US six-fold to $440 billion in the next decade [2]. - The EU suggests that member states formulate national plans by March 1, 2026, to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2027 [2]. - The IEA warns that tightening carbon emission rules and economic slowdown will weaken the growth of marine fuel demand [2]. - Russia's oil exports decreased by 23 million barrels per day in May, resulting in a revenue loss of $480 million [2]. Market Forecast - The OPEC monthly report predicts that US shale oil production will stabilize at 905 million barrels per day next year, and the average daily production of OPEC+ in May was 4123 million barrels, an increase of 18 million barrels from April. It also maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 130 million barrels per day and 128 million barrels per day, respectively [5]. - The IEA monthly report states that the oil market will be well-supplied in 2025 and 2030 without major disruptions. It forecasts that the total crude oil demand will reach 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026, and the global oil supply will be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - Fitch expects the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict to be controlled at around $5 - $10. Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure will further push up prices [5]. - Goldman Sachs still expects an oversupply of liquefied natural gas in the market, leading to near-capacity natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe in the summer of 2027 [5]. Price Changes - WTI crude oil for July delivery rose $3.07 per barrel, or 4.28%, to $74.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil for August delivery rose $3.22 per barrel, or 4.40%, to $76.45 per barrel. SC2508 crude oil futures rose 31.90 yuan per barrel, or 6.13%, to 552.50 yuan per barrel [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission of China increased domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from 24:00 on June 17, 2025 [5].

Group 1: IEA Monthly Report Highlights - The IEA projects sufficient oil market supply through 2025 and beyond, barring any major disruptions [1] - Global oil demand is expected to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Global oil supply is forecasted to be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 from 760,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day [1] Group 2: OPEC Monthly Report Highlights - U.S. shale oil production is expected to stabilize at 9.05 million barrels per day next year [2] - The average daily oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [2] - OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers for 2026 [2] - Despite trade concerns, the economic outlook remains strong, with no mention of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the latest report [2] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026 [2] - Economic growth forecasts for the global economy are held steady at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with U.S. growth forecasts unchanged at 1.7% and 2.1% respectively [2]

金十数据6月17日讯，国际能源署（IEA）周二表示，在没有重大中断的情况下，今年全球石油市场看 起来供应充足。该机构上调了对供应增长的预测，同时下调了对需求增长的预测。IEA在月报中表示， 今年全球石油需求将增加72万桶/日，较上月预估减少2万桶/日，而供应量将增加180万桶/日，较上月预 估增加20万桶/日。 订阅原油市场资讯 +订阅 国际能源署：2025年世界石油市场料供应充足 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心大幅上移，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘上涨 1.14 美元至 | | | | 62.47 美元/桶，涨幅 1.86%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘上涨 1.18 美元 | | | | 至 65.85 美元/桶，涨幅 1.82%。SC2505 以 482.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 8.3 元/桶，涨幅为 1.75%。随着美国总统特朗普试图加大对德黑兰 | | | | 的压力，并将伊朗石油出口降至零，美国发布了针对伊朗石油出 | | | | 口的新制裁。同时发布的新的制裁名单，其中包括一家山东地炼 | | | | 企业，市场担忧风险再度上升。OPEC 表示，该组织已收到伊拉 | | | 原油 | 克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计划，以补偿超过 | 震荡 | | | 商定配额的产量，这进一步提振了石油价格。EIA 表示，上周美 | | | | 国原油库存增加，而汽油和馏分油库存下降。截至 4 月 11 日当 | | ...