原油日报 | 2026-01-09 伊朗骚乱持续升级，市场焦点转向中东 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.77美元，收于每桶57.76美元，涨幅为3.16%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.03美元，收于每桶61.99美元，涨幅为3.39%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.58%，报425元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 1月8日，美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉实体的制裁。针对未来美国有关对委内 瑞拉"管理"的相关事宜，贝森特表示，其希望稳定委内瑞拉现有的结构。就有关委内瑞拉境内资产问题，贝森特 称，美国财政部将负责监督委内瑞拉的资产出售，并根据美国国务卿鲁比奥的指示将所得款项返还给委内瑞拉。 贝森特还表示，独立石油公司有兴趣尽快投资委内瑞拉，大型石油公司在委内瑞拉的行动可能会更加谨慎。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 1月8日，随着海湾两大强国之间长期存在的竞争局势日益紧张，沙特阿拉伯正采取行动，旨在终结阿联酋在 也门的角色，并削弱其邻国在红海等其他领域的影力。据两名听取了情况通报的相关人士透露，在命令阿联酋从 也门撤军并轰炸了 ...

一些分析师于周六表示，美国总统特朗普推翻石油出口国委内瑞拉的马杜罗政权的举动，在短期内 不太可能对能源市场造成冲击。 A/S Global Risk Management首席分析师兼研究主管 Arne Lohmann Rasmussen 指出，尽管美方此次 行动的规模出人意料，但市场此前已将委美冲突可能引发的石油出口中断这一因素纳入价格考量。 2025 年，国际石油市场迎来五年内最大年度跌幅。全球基准布伦特原油全年下跌约 19%，美国原 油跌幅近 20%。此前OPEC+在实施多年减产政策后扩大产量，同时美国原油日产量达到 1380 万桶以上 的历史新高，多重因素共同对市场形成压力。 分析师向CNBC表示，此次政权更迭可能会推动委内瑞拉未来石油产量提升，这一前景或进一步压 低油价。 MST Financial能源研究主管 Saul Kavonic 估计，若委内瑞拉新政府解除制裁、吸引外国投资者回 归，该国的石油出口量有望在中期内达到 300 万桶 / 日。 曾担任奥巴马政府国务院高级能源官员的能源行业顾问 David Goldwyn 表示："从任何角度来看， 委内瑞拉的未来发展都将对市场产生利空影响，因为其石油 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks collectively declined, with CNOOC (00883) down 2.96% to HKD 22.26, CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) down 2.86% to HKD 7.82, PetroChina (00857) down 1.43% to HKD 8.94, and Sinopec (00386) down 1.57% to HKD 4.4 [1] - International oil prices experienced the largest drop since June, with WTI crude oil futures for December delivery falling 4.2%, erasing gains from the previous three trading days, and January Brent crude down 3.8% [1] - OPEC's monthly oil market report indicated that global supply is increasing, leading to a slight surplus in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous forecasts that suggested a prolonged supply-demand imbalance [1]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined despite tensions between the US and Venezuela, which is counterintuitive to expectations [1] - Market participants are not focused on the US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela, with speculation that regime change could lead to increased Venezuelan oil supplies [2][3] - The restructuring of Venezuela's oil industry is expected to be a multi-year and costly process, complicated by significant Chinese and Russian interests [4] Middle East Tensions - Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are being closely monitored, with potential implications for the oil market [5] - A brief spike in oil prices occurred following Israeli strikes, but prices settled quickly, indicating market resilience [6] - Continuous escalation in the Middle East suggests that Israel may refocus on Iran, impacting regional stability and oil supply [8] Economic Indicators and Supply Concerns - Recent US rate cuts have not positively impacted oil prices, as anticipated inventory builds in Q4 are causing bearish sentiment [10][11] - Concerns about oversupply in the fourth quarter are prevalent among market participants [11] - Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could significantly affect Russian oil production and supply dynamics [12][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year, following OPEC+'s decision to increase production, while also adjusting the demand growth forecast upward due to resilient oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Supply Forecast - The IEA has increased its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [1] - This adjustment reflects the impact of OPEC+ production increases and the growing global oil inventory [1] Demand Forecast - The IEA has raised its oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The increase in demand is attributed to the resilience of oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Market Dynamics - The oil market is influenced by multiple factors, including potential supply losses due to new sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+ production increases and rising global oil inventories [1]

Group 1 - The recent oil market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) show significant divergence in their assessments, which is historically rare [1][2] - OPEC's monthly report is optimistic, raising the forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by stronger economic activity in key regions [1] - In contrast, the IEA report is pessimistic, indicating that global oil inventories are increasing at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation during the pandemic in 2020 [2] Group 2 - OPEC has consistently agreed to increase production to capture market share, reflecting its optimistic outlook on demand [1] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, primarily from the Americas [2] - The contrasting views of OPEC and the IEA highlight the current tensions in the oil market, with the market seemingly leaning towards a weakening demand side, which may continue to pressure oil prices [2]

Core Insights - International oil prices weakened due to an increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and a negative outlook on oil market supply and demand from the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on August 13, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, a decrease of 0.82% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery decreased by $0.49 to $65.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.74% [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Inventory Data - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was reported at 426.7 million barrels, an increase of 3 million barrels week-on-week [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 700,000 barrels [1] - Propane and propylene inventories saw a significant increase of 3.9 million barrels [1] - Overall, U.S. commercial oil inventories rose by 7.5 million barrels [1] Group 3: Refinery Operations - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries was 17.2 million barrels, an increase of 56,000 barrels week-on-week [1] - The average refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, down from 96.9% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply was 9 million barrels, a decrease of 40,000 barrels week-on-week [1] - The average daily net crude oil imports were 3.433 million barrels, an increase of 699,000 barrels week-on-week [1] Group 4: Strategic Oil Reserves and Production - The commercial crude oil inventory in the Cushing region was 23.1 million barrels, showing a slight increase [2] - The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve stood at 403.2 million barrels, an increase of 226,000 barrels [2] - The average daily crude oil production in the U.S. was 13.327 million barrels, an increase of 43,000 barrels week-on-week [2] Group 5: Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The IEA's monthly oil market report projected global daily crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels this year and 1.9 million barrels next year, higher than previous forecasts [2] - Global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 685,000 barrels this year and 699,000 barrels next year, lower than earlier predictions [2] - The report indicated that demand from major economies remains sluggish, with consumer confidence under pressure, making a significant rebound in oil demand unlikely [2]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, providing price data, market news, and trend analysis [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may continue to strengthen and challenge the $85 mark. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]. - The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The Israel-Iran conflict has made the shipping industry uneasy, with many vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the number of ships passing through and an expected increase in shipping costs [2]. - The US API reported a -22.8 million barrels per day change in crude oil production, a 34.9 million barrels per day change in refined oil imports, and a -1013.3 million barrels change in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 [2]. - The CPC Blend crude oil exports from the Black Sea will remain at 165 million barrels per day in July [2]. - Russia's President Putin will hold talks with the OPEC Secretary-General on the oil market on June 20 [2]. - The UAE plans to increase its energy investment in the US six-fold to $440 billion in the next decade [2]. - The EU suggests that member states formulate national plans by March 1, 2026, to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2027 [2]. - The IEA warns that tightening carbon emission rules and economic slowdown will weaken the growth of marine fuel demand [2]. - Russia's oil exports decreased by 23 million barrels per day in May, resulting in a revenue loss of $480 million [2]. Market Forecast - The OPEC monthly report predicts that US shale oil production will stabilize at 905 million barrels per day next year, and the average daily production of OPEC+ in May was 4123 million barrels, an increase of 18 million barrels from April. It also maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 130 million barrels per day and 128 million barrels per day, respectively [5]. - The IEA monthly report states that the oil market will be well-supplied in 2025 and 2030 without major disruptions. It forecasts that the total crude oil demand will reach 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026, and the global oil supply will be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - Fitch expects the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict to be controlled at around $5 - $10. Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure will further push up prices [5]. - Goldman Sachs still expects an oversupply of liquefied natural gas in the market, leading to near-capacity natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe in the summer of 2027 [5]. Price Changes - WTI crude oil for July delivery rose $3.07 per barrel, or 4.28%, to $74.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil for August delivery rose $3.22 per barrel, or 4.40%, to $76.45 per barrel. SC2508 crude oil futures rose 31.90 yuan per barrel, or 6.13%, to 552.50 yuan per barrel [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission of China increased domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from 24:00 on June 17, 2025 [5].

Group 1: IEA Monthly Report Highlights - The IEA projects sufficient oil market supply through 2025 and beyond, barring any major disruptions [1] - Global oil demand is expected to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Global oil supply is forecasted to be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 from 760,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day [1] Group 2: OPEC Monthly Report Highlights - U.S. shale oil production is expected to stabilize at 9.05 million barrels per day next year [2] - The average daily oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [2] - OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers for 2026 [2] - Despite trade concerns, the economic outlook remains strong, with no mention of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the latest report [2] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026 [2] - Economic growth forecasts for the global economy are held steady at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with U.S. growth forecasts unchanged at 1.7% and 2.1% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the global oil market is expected to be well-supplied in 2025, assuming no major disruptions occur [1] Supply and Demand Forecast - The IEA has raised its forecast for supply growth while lowering its demand growth expectations for the year [1] - Global oil demand is projected to increase by 720,000 barrels per day, which is a reduction of 20,000 barrels per day from last month's estimate [1] - Oil supply is expected to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast [1]