国际能源署近日发布的2月国际石油市场报告显示，受地缘政治紧张局势升级、北美暴风雪与极端气 温，以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉石油出口萎缩等因素影响，1月全球石油供应环比下降120万 桶/日，至1.066亿桶/日。全球基准布伦特原油价格近日突破70美元/桶关口，创2025年9月以来新高。 报告显示，1月，伊朗与美国的地缘政治紧张加剧推高了油价。尽管2月初因缓解紧张局势的谈判取得进 展的消息传出，国际油价一度有所回落，但在美国政府建议船舶航行霍尔木兹海峡时避开伊朗水域后， 国际油价迅速掉头回升。近期美伊紧张局势升级，推动国际油价显著上涨，可见石油市场对地缘局势不 确定事态依然高度敏感。 多个产油国供应中断事件令现货原油市场收紧，也进一步推高了油价。1月俄罗斯石油供应大幅下降35 万桶/日，其主要客户在美国及欧盟扩大制裁的压力下，减少了俄油进口，特别是印度炼油厂加大力度 寻求替代供应，对俄油出口影响最大。1月印度俄油进口量已经降至110万桶/日，为2022年11月以来的 最低水平，也远低于2025年平均170万桶/日的水平。1月委内瑞拉原油产量环比下降21万桶/日，降至78 万桶/日，但市场预计，美国政府授权美国 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价大幅下挫，其中 WTI 3月合约收盘下跌 1.79 美元至 62.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.77%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 1.88 美元至 67.52 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.71%。SC2604 456.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 24.4 元/ 以 桶，跌幅 5.14%。IEA 在周四发布的最新月度石油市场报告中称， | | | | | 今年全球石油需求增速将比预期更加缓慢，同时预测全球市场将 继续面临大规模的供应过剩，尽管 1 月份的中断削减了供应。受 | | | | 原油 | OPEC+产油国以及非 OPEC+的供应增加推动，2026 年将出现 373 | | 震荡 | | | 万桶/日的供应过剩。这一预测与上月报告预测的 369 万桶/日过剩 | | | | | 相差不大。这一规模的过剩量将战全球需求的 4%左右，并且高于 | | | | | | 其他预测机构的数值。美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗须与美国达成 | ...

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel this week, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively compared to last week[2] - U.S. total crude oil inventory stands at 84 million barrels, with commercial and strategic inventories at 42 million barrels each, reflecting changes of -324, -346, and +21 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480 thousand barrels per day from the previous week[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180 thousand barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 620 thousand barrels, while exports decreased by 54 thousand barrels to 405 thousand barrels, resulting in a net import increase of 110 thousand barrels per day[2] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 to 412, while active fracturing fleets decreased by 3 to 148[2] Refined Products - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices averaged $80, $101, and $89 per barrel respectively, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 per barrel[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel inventories decreased by 555 and 66 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline consumption decreased by 60 thousand barrels per day to 815 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 24 and 29 thousand barrels per day respectively[2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC Services[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, significant macroeconomic downturns, and potential changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]

2026 年年初的几周内，由于石油输出国组织（欧佩克）核心成员国伊朗出现短暂动荡，且哈萨克斯坦 原油出口受阻，国际油价曾一度走高。 本周三，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普表示，不会因格陵兰岛问题对欧洲加征关祱，并透露双方已接近达成 一项框架协议。 哥本哈根盛宝银行策略师奥莱・斯洛特・汉森表示："地缘政治紧张局势已有所缓和。不过，鉴于多项 供应端风险尚未解决，且寒冷天气将提振美国原油需求，油价或将保持坚挺。" 随着交易商将关注点转向美国及其他地区的供应增长前景，同时围绕格陵兰岛的争议逐渐平息，国际油 价出现下跌。 在伦敦市场，全球原油基准布伦特原油价格下跌约 1%，跌破每桶 65 美元关口。据行业资助的美国石 油学会数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加 300 万桶。官方库存数据将于本周四晚些时候公布。 与此同时，随着黑海一座关键石油装卸设施的维修工作接近尾声，哈萨克斯坦持续数周的石油出口限制 即将解除。里海管道联盟码头积压的待运原油货物量正逐步回落。 委内瑞拉的原油运输正重返全球市场，印度炼油巨头信实工业有限公司也再度采购俄罗斯原油，这批原 油将于今年 2 月至 3 月完成交付。 为主要经济体提供能源咨询的国际能源署于本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the U.S., with traders concerned about potential military actions and their impact on oil supply [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices surged to multi-month highs earlier in the week amid speculation of imminent attacks on Iran, but dropped sharply as President Trump appeared to back off from military action [1]. - Traders are preparing for further price fluctuations, influenced by both oversupply and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply [1][3]. - The market's reaction to geopolitical events has been swift, with price increases followed by rapid sell-offs when fundamental conditions remain unchanged [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite geopolitical concerns, there have been no significant changes in oil production from key Gulf producers, and supply from the Gulf to international markets remains stable [3][4]. - The outlook for oil prices is contingent on whether geopolitical tensions escalate to disrupt Iranian oil production, which currently stands at approximately 3 million barrels per day [3][4]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Analysts predict that oil prices will be supported by global economic acceleration, with Brent crude oil price forecasted to reach $75 per barrel by year-end, representing a 16% premium over current levels [5][6]. - Geopolitical events are expected to prevent significant price declines, but anticipated oversupply is likely to hinder substantial price rebounds [6][7]. Group 4: OPEC's Position - The situation in Venezuela raises questions about OPEC's influence on oil supply and how it will respond to potential increases in Venezuelan production under U.S. control [7]. - Analysts are curious about OPEC's strategy in managing production quotas and its response to the shifting dynamics of member countries' oil sectors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been continuously rebounding recently, but the expected upside is limited. The reasons for the rebound are the escalating Iran situation, the continuous low - level of CPC crude oil exports, and the short - term large - scale buying due to the annual re - balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index funds. In the future, the impact of commodity index funds will dissipate, and the Iran situation has been controlled in the short term, with no impact on the actual supply chain [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a 2.51% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.90% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - Venezuela's crude oil production dropped significantly from 1.16 million barrels per day at the end of November 2025 to about 880,000 barrels per day last week. PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to restore production and is preparing for an internal audit and new business and investment after a cyber - attack [1] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have been lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran. They warned that overthrowing the Iranian regime would disrupt the oil market and harm the US economy [1] - The US government has applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. US military and coast guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks. Although the transportation has resumed under US supervision, the government has filed multiple civil forfeiture lawsuits [1] Investment Logic - The reasons for the recent oil price rebound are the escalating Iran situation, low CPC crude oil exports, and short - term buying from index fund re - balancing. In the future, these factors will weaken, and the actual supply chain remains unaffected [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advisable [3] Risks - Downside risks include the reaching of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events. Upside risks are supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

原油日报 | 2026-01-09 伊朗骚乱持续升级，市场焦点转向中东 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.77美元，收于每桶57.76美元，涨幅为3.16%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.03美元，收于每桶61.99美元，涨幅为3.39%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.58%，报425元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 1月8日，美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉实体的制裁。针对未来美国有关对委内 瑞拉"管理"的相关事宜，贝森特表示，其希望稳定委内瑞拉现有的结构。就有关委内瑞拉境内资产问题，贝森特 称，美国财政部将负责监督委内瑞拉的资产出售，并根据美国国务卿鲁比奥的指示将所得款项返还给委内瑞拉。 贝森特还表示，独立石油公司有兴趣尽快投资委内瑞拉，大型石油公司在委内瑞拉的行动可能会更加谨慎。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 1月8日，随着海湾两大强国之间长期存在的竞争局势日益紧张，沙特阿拉伯正采取行动，旨在终结阿联酋在 也门的角色，并削弱其邻国在红海等其他领域的影力。据两名听取了情况通报的相关人士透露，在命令阿联酋从 也门撤军并轰炸了 ...

一些分析师于周六表示，美国总统特朗普推翻石油出口国委内瑞拉的马杜罗政权的举动，在短期内 不太可能对能源市场造成冲击。 A/S Global Risk Management首席分析师兼研究主管 Arne Lohmann Rasmussen 指出，尽管美方此次 行动的规模出人意料，但市场此前已将委美冲突可能引发的石油出口中断这一因素纳入价格考量。 2025 年，国际石油市场迎来五年内最大年度跌幅。全球基准布伦特原油全年下跌约 19%，美国原 油跌幅近 20%。此前OPEC+在实施多年减产政策后扩大产量，同时美国原油日产量达到 1380 万桶以上 的历史新高，多重因素共同对市场形成压力。 分析师向CNBC表示，此次政权更迭可能会推动委内瑞拉未来石油产量提升，这一前景或进一步压 低油价。 MST Financial能源研究主管 Saul Kavonic 估计，若委内瑞拉新政府解除制裁、吸引外国投资者回 归，该国的石油出口量有望在中期内达到 300 万桶 / 日。 曾担任奥巴马政府国务院高级能源官员的能源行业顾问 David Goldwyn 表示："从任何角度来看， 委内瑞拉的未来发展都将对市场产生利空影响，因为其石油 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks collectively declined, with CNOOC (00883) down 2.96% to HKD 22.26, CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) down 2.86% to HKD 7.82, PetroChina (00857) down 1.43% to HKD 8.94, and Sinopec (00386) down 1.57% to HKD 4.4 [1] - International oil prices experienced the largest drop since June, with WTI crude oil futures for December delivery falling 4.2%, erasing gains from the previous three trading days, and January Brent crude down 3.8% [1] - OPEC's monthly oil market report indicated that global supply is increasing, leading to a slight surplus in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous forecasts that suggested a prolonged supply-demand imbalance [1]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined despite tensions between the US and Venezuela, which is counterintuitive to expectations [1] - Market participants are not focused on the US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela, with speculation that regime change could lead to increased Venezuelan oil supplies [2][3] - The restructuring of Venezuela's oil industry is expected to be a multi-year and costly process, complicated by significant Chinese and Russian interests [4] Middle East Tensions - Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are being closely monitored, with potential implications for the oil market [5] - A brief spike in oil prices occurred following Israeli strikes, but prices settled quickly, indicating market resilience [6] - Continuous escalation in the Middle East suggests that Israel may refocus on Iran, impacting regional stability and oil supply [8] Economic Indicators and Supply Concerns - Recent US rate cuts have not positively impacted oil prices, as anticipated inventory builds in Q4 are causing bearish sentiment [10][11] - Concerns about oversupply in the fourth quarter are prevalent among market participants [11] - Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could significantly affect Russian oil production and supply dynamics [12][13][14]