Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency's February report indicates a significant decline in global oil supply due to geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and reduced exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Supply and Price Dynamics - In January, global oil supply decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 106.6 million bpd, influenced by geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions [1]. - Russian oil supply fell by 350,000 bpd in January, with Indian imports dropping to 1.1 million bpd, the lowest since November 2022 [2]. - Venezuela's oil production decreased by 210,000 bpd to 780,000 bpd, but is expected to rebound following U.S. authorization for exports [2]. Group 2: Refining and Inventory Trends - Global refinery crude processing dropped from a record 86.3 million bpd in December to 85.7 million bpd in January due to seasonal maintenance and declining refining margins [3]. - Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December, reaching a total of 477 million barrels, with OECD inventories also rising above the five-year average for the first time since 2021 [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - The report forecasts a strong rebound in global oil supply in 2026, with an expected increase of 2.4 million bpd, reaching 108.6 million bpd, driven equally by OPEC and non-OPEC producers [4]. - Global oil demand growth is projected at 850,000 bpd for 2026, with non-OECD economies contributing the entire increase, and petrochemical feedstock expected to account for over 50% of this demand growth [4][5]. - Despite a slight downward adjustment in demand growth expectations due to economic uncertainties, China remains the largest contributor with an annual increase of approximately 200,000 bpd [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA predicts that global oil demand growth will be slower than expected in 2026, and the market will face a large - scale supply surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global demand. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to geopolitical uncertainties, and traders are advised to participate with light positions [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a mixed situation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, while the low - sulfur market in Singapore is under pressure. Both FU and LU are affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs, and traders are advised to hold light positions before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is affected by the cost - end oil price, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations after the US - Iran negotiation. Traders are advised to hold light positions before the Spring Festival [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil, the possible unscheduled shutdown of polyester raw materials, and the resumption of work of downstream and terminal enterprises after the festival [4]. - The rubber market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight increase in port inventory. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening of rubber tapping in southern Thailand, the inventory accumulation of domestic natural rubber, and the delivery of overseas orders of tire factories during the Spring Festival [5]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Although the decline in Iranian shipments will support prices, the low load of MTO devices and the approaching Spring Festival will limit the market [5]. - The polyolefin market will gradually start to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly due to the high - level production and the approaching Spring Festival [6]. - The PVC market has a weak fundamental driving force, but the export tax - free policy before April 1st will provide short - term support, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI March contract closed down $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a 2.77% decline; Brent April contract closed down $1.88 to $67.52 per barrel, a 2.71% decline; SC2604 closed at 456.3 yuan per barrel, down 24.4 yuan, a 5.14% decline. The price is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2605 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.09% to 2,888 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2604 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 3,349 yuan per ton. The market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2603 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.24% to 3,327 yuan per ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,220 yuan per ton, down 0.76%; EG2605 closed at 3,723 yuan per ton, down 1.09%. PX and PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2605 of Shanghai rubber fell 125 yuan per ton to 16,450 yuan per ton; NR main contract fell 75 yuan per ton to 13,370 yuan per ton; BR main contract fell 305 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton. The price is expected to be volatile [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,210 yuan per ton. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 6,520 - 6,700 yuan per ton. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market in East China was stable, and the price in South China rose slightly. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on February 12, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - The gasoline inventory at the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) hub decreased to 1.284 million tons, the fuel oil inventory increased to 1.112 million tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased to 0.857 million tons, the naphtha inventory increased to 0.68 million tons, and the diesel inventory increased to 2.159 million tons [9]. - Russia is preparing to transport crude oil and fuel to Cuba in the near future to help Cuba solve its fuel shortage problem [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][18][20][21][23][25][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [27][28][31][32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [35][37][41][43][46][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [51][53][54][57] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical varieties, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [59][61] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and multiple awards [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements and awards [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant work experience and awards [67].

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel this week, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively compared to last week[2] - U.S. total crude oil inventory stands at 84 million barrels, with commercial and strategic inventories at 42 million barrels each, reflecting changes of -324, -346, and +21 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480 thousand barrels per day from the previous week[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180 thousand barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 620 thousand barrels, while exports decreased by 54 thousand barrels to 405 thousand barrels, resulting in a net import increase of 110 thousand barrels per day[2] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 to 412, while active fracturing fleets decreased by 3 to 148[2] Refined Products - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices averaged $80, $101, and $89 per barrel respectively, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 per barrel[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel inventories decreased by 555 and 66 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline consumption decreased by 60 thousand barrels per day to 815 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 24 and 29 thousand barrels per day respectively[2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC Services[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, significant macroeconomic downturns, and potential changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have declined as traders shift focus to supply growth prospects in the U.S. and other regions, while tensions surrounding Greenland have eased [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell approximately 1%, dropping below $65 per barrel [1][2]. - The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, with official data to be released later this week [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan's oil export restrictions are set to be lifted as maintenance on a key oil loading facility in the Black Sea nears completion, leading to a gradual decrease in the backlog of crude oil awaiting shipment at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal [1][2]. - Venezuelan crude oil shipments are returning to the global market, and Indian refining giant Reliance Industries has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, with deliveries expected between February and March of this year [1][2]. Group 3: Demand and Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency slightly raised its oil demand growth forecast but maintained its view that the global oil market will experience significant oversupply this year [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions have eased, but supply-side risks remain unresolved, and cold weather is expected to boost U.S. crude oil demand, which may keep oil prices firm [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The energy market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the U.S., with traders concerned about potential military actions and their impact on oil supply [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices surged to multi-month highs earlier in the week amid speculation of imminent attacks on Iran, but dropped sharply as President Trump appeared to back off from military action [1]. - Traders are preparing for further price fluctuations, influenced by both oversupply and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply [1][3]. - The market's reaction to geopolitical events has been swift, with price increases followed by rapid sell-offs when fundamental conditions remain unchanged [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite geopolitical concerns, there have been no significant changes in oil production from key Gulf producers, and supply from the Gulf to international markets remains stable [3][4]. - The outlook for oil prices is contingent on whether geopolitical tensions escalate to disrupt Iranian oil production, which currently stands at approximately 3 million barrels per day [3][4]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Analysts predict that oil prices will be supported by global economic acceleration, with Brent crude oil price forecasted to reach $75 per barrel by year-end, representing a 16% premium over current levels [5][6]. - Geopolitical events are expected to prevent significant price declines, but anticipated oversupply is likely to hinder substantial price rebounds [6][7]. Group 4: OPEC's Position - The situation in Venezuela raises questions about OPEC's influence on oil supply and how it will respond to potential increases in Venezuelan production under U.S. control [7]. - Analysts are curious about OPEC's strategy in managing production quotas and its response to the shifting dynamics of member countries' oil sectors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been continuously rebounding recently, but the expected upside is limited. The reasons for the rebound are the escalating Iran situation, the continuous low - level of CPC crude oil exports, and the short - term large - scale buying due to the annual re - balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index funds. In the future, the impact of commodity index funds will dissipate, and the Iran situation has been controlled in the short term, with no impact on the actual supply chain [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a 2.51% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.90% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - Venezuela's crude oil production dropped significantly from 1.16 million barrels per day at the end of November 2025 to about 880,000 barrels per day last week. PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to restore production and is preparing for an internal audit and new business and investment after a cyber - attack [1] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have been lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran. They warned that overthrowing the Iranian regime would disrupt the oil market and harm the US economy [1] - The US government has applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. US military and coast guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks. Although the transportation has resumed under US supervision, the government has filed multiple civil forfeiture lawsuits [1] Investment Logic - The reasons for the recent oil price rebound are the escalating Iran situation, low CPC crude oil exports, and short - term buying from index fund re - balancing. In the future, these factors will weaken, and the actual supply chain remains unaffected [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advisable [3] Risks - Downside risks include the reaching of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events. Upside risks are supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.77 to $57.76 per barrel, a gain of 3.16%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.03 to $61.99 per barrel, a gain of 3.39%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.58% at 425 yuan per barrel [1] - On January 8, US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the US would lift some sanctions on Venezuelan entities. He also mentioned that independent oil companies were interested in investing in Venezuela, while large oil companies might be more cautious [1] - On January 8, Saudi Arabia took action to end the UAE's role in Yemen and weaken its influence in other areas. Riyadh aimed to bring all UAE - supported factions in Yemen under its control [1] - On January 8, US Energy Secretary Wright said that US oil companies were studying how to play a role in revitalizing Venezuela's energy industry. Chevron was expected to expand its business in Venezuela [1] - After Maduro's arrest, the Trump administration planned to sell Venezuelan heavy - high - sulfur and corrosive crude oil in the US. US Gulf Coast refineries had the capacity to process such crude oil [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The sharp rebound in oil prices was mainly due to the escalating riots in Iran, where the domestic internet was cut off, indicating irreconcilable domestic contradictions. The situation in Iran and the Maduro event had similar logics, and Iran's large oil export volume would have a significant impact on the oil market [2][3] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [4]

Core Insights - The recent actions by President Trump to overturn the Maduro regime in Venezuela are not expected to have an immediate impact on the energy market, as the potential for oil export disruptions has already been factored into prices [2] - Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, has the largest proven oil reserves globally but currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global oil production [2] - The global oil market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, which is typical for the first quarter of the year, leading to expectations of only a slight increase in Brent crude prices [2] Group 1: Market Impact - Analysts predict that Brent crude prices may rise by only $1 to $2 following the geopolitical event, with expectations of a slight decline below the previous closing price of $60.75 [2] - The potential for a regime change in Venezuela could lead to an increase in oil production, which may further depress oil prices in the medium term [3] - If sanctions are lifted, Venezuela's oil exports could potentially reach 3 million barrels per day, significantly impacting the market [3] Group 2: Investment Considerations - U.S. oil companies are poised to invest billions to rebuild Venezuela's energy sector, but specific investment details and company names remain undisclosed [3][4] - The complexity of investing in Venezuela is highlighted by the historical context of foreign oil companies being expelled in the early 2000s, making current investment decisions cautious [4] - The development of Venezuela's oil resources is projected to require decades and substantial investment, raising questions about the long-term viability of such investments given changing global oil demand dynamics [5]

Group 1 - Oil stocks collectively declined, with CNOOC (00883) down 2.96% to HKD 22.26, CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) down 2.86% to HKD 7.82, PetroChina (00857) down 1.43% to HKD 8.94, and Sinopec (00386) down 1.57% to HKD 4.4 [1] - International oil prices experienced the largest drop since June, with WTI crude oil futures for December delivery falling 4.2%, erasing gains from the previous three trading days, and January Brent crude down 3.8% [1] - OPEC's monthly oil market report indicated that global supply is increasing, leading to a slight surplus in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous forecasts that suggested a prolonged supply-demand imbalance [1]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined despite tensions between the US and Venezuela, which is counterintuitive to expectations [1] - Market participants are not focused on the US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela, with speculation that regime change could lead to increased Venezuelan oil supplies [2][3] - The restructuring of Venezuela's oil industry is expected to be a multi-year and costly process, complicated by significant Chinese and Russian interests [4] Middle East Tensions - Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are being closely monitored, with potential implications for the oil market [5] - A brief spike in oil prices occurred following Israeli strikes, but prices settled quickly, indicating market resilience [6] - Continuous escalation in the Middle East suggests that Israel may refocus on Iran, impacting regional stability and oil supply [8] Economic Indicators and Supply Concerns - Recent US rate cuts have not positively impacted oil prices, as anticipated inventory builds in Q4 are causing bearish sentiment [10][11] - Concerns about oversupply in the fourth quarter are prevalent among market participants [11] - Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could significantly affect Russian oil production and supply dynamics [12][13][14]