此外，IEA还小幅上调了对2026年非欧佩克+产油国（以美洲国家为主导）的产量预期。其中将2026年 非欧佩克+产油国日供应增长预期上调10万桶至100万桶，增量主要来自美国、圭亚那、加拿大和巴 西。 近期公布的两份油市报告对石油市场的判断出现较大分歧，这在历史上较为少见，欧佩克月报偏乐观， 主要代表产油国立场；国际能源署报告偏悲观，主要代表消费国立场。虽然分歧存在，但是从油价表现 看依然偏弱，主要利空来自沙特增产以及俄乌谈判，后市难言乐观，油价将继续承压为主。 具体来看，最新公布的欧佩克月报显示，在本月欧佩克上调了对明年全球石油需求的预估，同时下调了 对美国和欧佩克+集团以外产油国的供应增长预估，表明市场前景趋紧。正是基于这样的乐观预期，欧 佩克+已经连续多次同意增产，以抢占市场份额。 其中，欧佩克预计2026年全球石油需求将增加138万桶／日，高于此前预计的128万桶，主要受主要地区 经济活动更为强劲的推动。今年的需求增长预期仍为129万桶／日。欧佩克还小幅上调了全球经济增长 预测，并表示，尽管贸易不确定性依然存在，可能推高通胀压力，但各国财政刺激与货币政策仍有望对 冲部分负面影响。 相比之下，国际能源署 ...

2025 年 6 月 18 日 原油：或延续强势挑战 85 美元，多单持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月收涨 3.07 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%，报 74.84 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收涨 3.22 美 元/桶，涨幅 4.40%，报 76.45 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收涨 31.90 元/桶，涨幅 6.13%，报 552.50 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强， -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 13. 欧佩克月报：预计明年美国页岩油产量将稳定在 905 万桶/日；5 月欧佩克+原油日产量平均为 4123 万桶，较 4 月增加了 18 万桶；下调对 2026 年美国及其他非欧佩克+产油国石油供应增长 的预测；尽管存在贸易担忧，但经济前景依然强劲（最新报告未提及以伊 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心大幅上移，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘上涨 1.14 美元至 | | | | 62.47 美元/桶，涨幅 1.86%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘上涨 1.18 美元 | | | | 至 65.85 美元/桶，涨幅 1.82%。SC2505 以 482.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 8.3 元/桶，涨幅为 1.75%。随着美国总统特朗普试图加大对德黑兰 | | | | 的压力，并将伊朗石油出口降至零，美国发布了针对伊朗石油出 | | | | 口的新制裁。同时发布的新的制裁名单，其中包括一家山东地炼 | | | | 企业，市场担忧风险再度上升。OPEC 表示，该组织已收到伊拉 | | | 原油 | 克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计划，以补偿超过 | 震荡 | | | 商定配额的产量，这进一步提振了石油价格。EIA 表示，上周美 | | | | 国原油库存增加，而汽油和馏分油库存下降。截至 4 月 11 日当 | | ...