石油股集体走低，截至发稿，中海油(00883)跌2.96%，报22.26港元；中海油服（601808）(02883)跌 2.86%，报7.82港元；中石油(00857)跌1.43%，报8.94港元；中石化(00386)跌1.57%，报4.4港元。 消息面上，国际油价创下6月以来最大跌幅。当地时间周三，12月交割的WTI原油期货下跌4.2%，抹去 了此前连续三个交易日的涨幅；1月布伦特原油下跌3.8%。欧佩克发布的月度石油市场报告显示，随着 全球供应增加，石油市场将在2026年出现小幅过剩。在此之前，欧佩克所有的预测都认为，石油市场会 长时间保持供不应求的格局。 ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined despite tensions between the US and Venezuela, which is counterintuitive to expectations [1] - Market participants are not focused on the US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela, with speculation that regime change could lead to increased Venezuelan oil supplies [2][3] - The restructuring of Venezuela's oil industry is expected to be a multi-year and costly process, complicated by significant Chinese and Russian interests [4] Middle East Tensions - Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are being closely monitored, with potential implications for the oil market [5] - A brief spike in oil prices occurred following Israeli strikes, but prices settled quickly, indicating market resilience [6] - Continuous escalation in the Middle East suggests that Israel may refocus on Iran, impacting regional stability and oil supply [8] Economic Indicators and Supply Concerns - Recent US rate cuts have not positively impacted oil prices, as anticipated inventory builds in Q4 are causing bearish sentiment [10][11] - Concerns about oversupply in the fourth quarter are prevalent among market participants [11] - Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could significantly affect Russian oil production and supply dynamics [12][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year, following OPEC+'s decision to increase production, while also adjusting the demand growth forecast upward due to resilient oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Supply Forecast - The IEA has increased its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [1] - This adjustment reflects the impact of OPEC+ production increases and the growing global oil inventory [1] Demand Forecast - The IEA has raised its oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The increase in demand is attributed to the resilience of oil deliveries in developed economies [1] Market Dynamics - The oil market is influenced by multiple factors, including potential supply losses due to new sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+ production increases and rising global oil inventories [1]

Group 1 - The recent oil market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) show significant divergence in their assessments, which is historically rare [1][2] - OPEC's monthly report is optimistic, raising the forecast for global oil demand in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by stronger economic activity in key regions [1] - In contrast, the IEA report is pessimistic, indicating that global oil inventories are increasing at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation during the pandemic in 2020 [2] Group 2 - OPEC has consistently agreed to increase production to capture market share, reflecting its optimistic outlook on demand [1] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, primarily from the Americas [2] - The contrasting views of OPEC and the IEA highlight the current tensions in the oil market, with the market seemingly leaning towards a weakening demand side, which may continue to pressure oil prices [2]

Core Insights - International oil prices weakened due to an increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and a negative outlook on oil market supply and demand from the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on August 13, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, a decrease of 0.82% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery decreased by $0.49 to $65.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.74% [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Inventory Data - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was reported at 426.7 million barrels, an increase of 3 million barrels week-on-week [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 700,000 barrels [1] - Propane and propylene inventories saw a significant increase of 3.9 million barrels [1] - Overall, U.S. commercial oil inventories rose by 7.5 million barrels [1] Group 3: Refinery Operations - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries was 17.2 million barrels, an increase of 56,000 barrels week-on-week [1] - The average refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, down from 96.9% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply was 9 million barrels, a decrease of 40,000 barrels week-on-week [1] - The average daily net crude oil imports were 3.433 million barrels, an increase of 699,000 barrels week-on-week [1] Group 4: Strategic Oil Reserves and Production - The commercial crude oil inventory in the Cushing region was 23.1 million barrels, showing a slight increase [2] - The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve stood at 403.2 million barrels, an increase of 226,000 barrels [2] - The average daily crude oil production in the U.S. was 13.327 million barrels, an increase of 43,000 barrels week-on-week [2] Group 5: Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The IEA's monthly oil market report projected global daily crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels this year and 1.9 million barrels next year, higher than previous forecasts [2] - Global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 685,000 barrels this year and 699,000 barrels next year, lower than earlier predictions [2] - The report indicated that demand from major economies remains sluggish, with consumer confidence under pressure, making a significant rebound in oil demand unlikely [2]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, providing price data, market news, and trend analysis [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may continue to strengthen and challenge the $85 mark. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]. - The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The Israel-Iran conflict has made the shipping industry uneasy, with many vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the number of ships passing through and an expected increase in shipping costs [2]. - The US API reported a -22.8 million barrels per day change in crude oil production, a 34.9 million barrels per day change in refined oil imports, and a -1013.3 million barrels change in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 [2]. - The CPC Blend crude oil exports from the Black Sea will remain at 165 million barrels per day in July [2]. - Russia's President Putin will hold talks with the OPEC Secretary-General on the oil market on June 20 [2]. - The UAE plans to increase its energy investment in the US six-fold to $440 billion in the next decade [2]. - The EU suggests that member states formulate national plans by March 1, 2026, to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2027 [2]. - The IEA warns that tightening carbon emission rules and economic slowdown will weaken the growth of marine fuel demand [2]. - Russia's oil exports decreased by 23 million barrels per day in May, resulting in a revenue loss of $480 million [2]. Market Forecast - The OPEC monthly report predicts that US shale oil production will stabilize at 905 million barrels per day next year, and the average daily production of OPEC+ in May was 4123 million barrels, an increase of 18 million barrels from April. It also maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 130 million barrels per day and 128 million barrels per day, respectively [5]. - The IEA monthly report states that the oil market will be well-supplied in 2025 and 2030 without major disruptions. It forecasts that the total crude oil demand will reach 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026, and the global oil supply will be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - Fitch expects the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict to be controlled at around $5 - $10. Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure will further push up prices [5]. - Goldman Sachs still expects an oversupply of liquefied natural gas in the market, leading to near-capacity natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe in the summer of 2027 [5]. Price Changes - WTI crude oil for July delivery rose $3.07 per barrel, or 4.28%, to $74.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil for August delivery rose $3.22 per barrel, or 4.40%, to $76.45 per barrel. SC2508 crude oil futures rose 31.90 yuan per barrel, or 6.13%, to 552.50 yuan per barrel [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission of China increased domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from 24:00 on June 17, 2025 [5].

Group 1: IEA Monthly Report Highlights - The IEA projects sufficient oil market supply through 2025 and beyond, barring any major disruptions [1] - Global oil demand is expected to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Global oil supply is forecasted to be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 from 760,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [1] - The global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day [1] Group 2: OPEC Monthly Report Highlights - U.S. shale oil production is expected to stabilize at 9.05 million barrels per day next year [2] - The average daily oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [2] - OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers for 2026 [2] - Despite trade concerns, the economic outlook remains strong, with no mention of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the latest report [2] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026 [2] - Economic growth forecasts for the global economy are held steady at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with U.S. growth forecasts unchanged at 1.7% and 2.1% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the global oil market is expected to be well-supplied in 2025, assuming no major disruptions occur [1] Supply and Demand Forecast - The IEA has raised its forecast for supply growth while lowering its demand growth expectations for the year [1] - Global oil demand is projected to increase by 720,000 barrels per day, which is a reduction of 20,000 barrels per day from last month's estimate [1] - Oil supply is expected to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]