1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices may continue the weak and volatile market due to the pressure of production increase and the expectation of easing in the Middle East situation. After the holiday, domestic oil prices opened lower to make up for the decline and continued to decline weakly on Friday. The domestic SC was weaker than the external market due to inventory pressure [4][75]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of macro - economic improvement. Crude oil may benefit as an asset choice for hedging inflation and de - dollarization, and the bullish sentiment is expected to improve [4][75]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Oil prices fluctuated during the holiday**: Oil prices were affected by production increase and the expectation of geopolitical easing. OPEC+ continued to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, less than market rumors. After October 6, prices rebounded, but geopolitical premiums declined due to the expected easing in the Middle East. As of October 9, WTI closed at $61.52 per barrel, Brent at $65.23 per barrel; as of October 10, SC closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel [4][9][75]. - **Inter - monthly spreads fluctuated weakly**: The inter - monthly spreads showed a weak and volatile trend [11]. - **WTI fund net long positions were at a low level**: As of the week ending September 30, Brent's net long positions were 202,480 lots, a decrease of 9,903 lots from the previous week. As of the week ending September 23, WTI's net long positions were 26,483 lots, a decrease of 10,316 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 412 lots, diesel by 3,200 lots, and heating oil decreased by 2,483 lots [16]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The actual production increase rate was lower than the planned rate. In the planned production of the eight major countries from May to August, there was a difference of about 150,000 barrels per day between the planned and actual production in July and August. The actual monthly incremental production was different from the planned values. This gap was based on Kazakhstan's over - production. If Kazakhstan was also restricted by the production cut compensation plan, OPEC+'s actual production increase might be further revised down. On October 5, OPEC+ chose a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, and its future production increase might depend on market stability and oil price performance [21][25][30]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. The production increase ability was limited due to the previous low oil prices and uncertain future demand. Institutions had revised down the production increase expectations for US shale oil. When WTI was between $55 - 65 per barrel, it was difficult to see a significant increase in shale oil production, and below $55 per barrel, production might decline slightly [31][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand for refined oil rebounded, with distillate demand performing better than gasoline. As of the week ending October 3, the demand for gasoline, distillate, and aviation kerosene showed different trends, and the total demand for petroleum products increased. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel were at a neutral level, and refinery profits were moderately high. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4% as of the week ending October 3, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year [36][45][49]. - **China**: The demand was better than expected. From June to August, the crude oil processing volume and refined oil production increased year - on - year. The main refineries had a significant increase in operation since June and remained at a high level, while local refineries had only a certain improvement in operation [55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil had a slight inventory build - up, mainly due to increased domestic supply and net imports, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the week ending October 3, the crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week. The SPR inventory was 406.985 million barrels, an increase of 285,000 barrels from the previous week. The Cushing area's inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels from the previous week. In the refined oil market, there was a slight inventory drawdown due to improved demand [61][62][67]. - **OECD**: The surplus pressure was gradually increasing. With OPEC+'s production increase, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and the OECD continued to build up inventory. In September 2025, the global monthly supply - demand gap was 3.88 million barrels per day, and the OECD's inventory at the end of September was 2.878 billion barrels, an increase of 39 million barrels from the previous month [71].