[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油周报 20250829：暂时观望》 《原油 9 月展望：等待利空因素释放》 期货（期权）研究报告 中东局势缓和预期推动地缘溢价回落 风险提示：俄乌局势变动。 [table_main] 宏源公 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The cotton market is facing a complex situation. Internationally, the extension of India's tariff exemption time supports US cotton, and the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand has made the pattern tighter. However, the adjustment of some countries' production may not be in place, and the slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support domestic cotton prices in the short term. But the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. - The sugar market has a situation where the continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, the low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices provide some support [5]. - The pulp market has supply pressure due to planned domestic pulp capacity expansion and high port inventories. On the demand side, weak consumption in Europe and the US, low domestic demand during the off - season, and over - capacity in the paper industry lead to limited demand improvement, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,412 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton. As of September 1, 2025, the weekly listing volume of Indian cotton was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5% [1]. Market Analysis - International: India's extension of the tariff exemption time supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the production adjustment of some countries may be incomplete. The slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside, and the ICE US cotton may be in the 65 - 70 cents range in the short term. - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of domestic cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas have not solved the short - term cotton shortage in Xinjiang. The supply is tight at the end of this season, and the approaching peak season improves demand. However, the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. In the short term, the tight supply, approaching peak season, and potential for抢购 may lead to a bullish oscillation of Zhengzhou cotton before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium term, the expected high yield in the new year and potential weak peak season may lead to a decline in cotton prices [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. India allows sugar mills to use various raw materials to produce ethanol to ensure domestic sugar supply [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region. Pakistan's sugar purchase supports sugar prices, but Brazil's peak crushing season and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limit the upside. - Domestic: The continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5]. Strategy - Neutral. The low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the further decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with only minor fluctuations [5][6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp capacity put into production in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking of ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and low domestic demand during the off - season, over - capacity in the paper industry, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected in the second half of the year [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The lack of improvement in the pulp market fundamentals and the absence of positive drivers suggest that the pulp price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The USDA in August significantly adjusted global cotton production and ending stocks, shifting the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the production adjustments for some countries may not be sufficient, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, and the new cotton is expected to increase in production. The quota policy has a limited impact on the market [2]. - Sugar: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. But Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation. In China, the import volume is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [5][6]. - Pulp: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased. There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,235 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Information: As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, 11.4 percentage points higher than the previous week but 15.8% slower than the same period last year. As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decline [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA adjusted the global cotton balance sheet, but the production adjustment for some countries may not be in place, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices [2]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices. The sliding - scale quota policy has limited impact on the market. The new cotton is expected to increase in production, and there will be hedging pressure during the new cotton listing period [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Market Information: Conab predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugarcane production would be 668.8 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The harvest area increased by 1%, but the yield per unit decreased by 2.1% [4]. Market Analysis - International: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, so raw sugar prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota sugar imports has been high for months, and the import volume in July increased significantly. The import supply in August - September is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Be neutral. The negative impact of import expectations has been reflected in the market. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to low inventory and late - growing sugarcane, there may be a price increase in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%) from the previous day [7]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Information: The import wood pulp spot market had individual price fluctuations. The trading volume of imported softwood pulp did not improve significantly, and the cost was under pressure. Some prices of imported hardwood pulp increased, while the supply and demand of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were weak [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8]. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is increasing. The domestic demand is weak, the finished paper inventory is high, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - **Asphalt**: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - **Polyester**: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - **Rubber**: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - **Methanol**: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].