Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro environment turns cold and the energy and chemical sectors collectively decline, focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds [1][2] - In the case that the Iranian geopolitical risk does not continue to expand and based on the implementation of the US - Iran negotiations, maintain a short - selling strategy for crude oil and wait for entry signals after rebounds [2][4] - For the chemical sector, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds for methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, rubber, and PTA, which show the weakest technical structure and volume [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Commodity sentiment cools due to the nomination of an hawkish Fed chair, the US aims to keep oil prices low to control inflation, and there is progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to an oversupply situation, a cold macro environment, and cooling geopolitical tensions, causing crude oil to peak [3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It hit the daily limit down today, breaking the 464 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 485. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [4] Styrene - Logic: Weakening cost from crude oil, a cold macro environment, and a weakening micro - fundamental situation lead to a short - term peak. There is a strong expectation of increased supply due to high profits, and weak demand due to downstream losses and approaching holidays. Although short - term de - stocking supports prices, there is pressure from the resumption of maintenance devices [6][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction, breaking the 7535 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 7775. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [10] Pure Benzene - Logic: Its price increase is mainly driven by styrene's profit expansion and potential positive impacts from US - South Korea tariff adjustments. However, there is weak overseas demand and high import pressure. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction after the macro environment cooled [11] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction, breaking the 5930 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 6270. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [13] Rubber - Logic: High inventory in Qingdao, weakening tire demand due to a slowdown in the auto market, and strong supply increase expectation after the March tapping season. It lacks upward drivers and declined following the macro environment [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the daily - level trend. Pay attention to the short - term support at 16080. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [14] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Although the raw material butadiene is still strong, the macro environment cools and there is an expectation of a decline in crude oil prices, leading to a negative driving force [17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It showed signs of peaking with a long - negative - line decline at a high level but has not broken the short - term support at 12800. Wait and see for right - side entry on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: The medium - term supply - demand situation is strong before the new capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading early in December. There is negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and a decline in crude oil prices [21] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction but is still in the 7050 - 7500 range. Wait and see on the hourly level [21] PTA - Logic: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand in the off - season, with negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. There is negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and a decline in crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a large - position - reduction and large - volume long - negative - line decline, breaking the 5210 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 5295. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [24] PP - Logic: With cooling geopolitical tensions and a cold macro environment, olefins weakened. PP has weak seasonal demand and high supply pressure, with a negative medium - term driving force. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction at a high level [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction but has not broken the short - term support at 6650. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [28] Methanol - Logic: Weak fundamentals due to low profit and expected decline in MTO device operation in the coastal area, high inventory, cooling geopolitical tensions, and a cold macro environment, leading to a negative short - term driving force [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the previous trend, breaking the 2285 support with increased positions, showing an obvious peak signal. The short - term resistance is at 2345. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Weak domestic fundamentals with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, high supply start - up rate, and negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. There is a negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and cooling geopolitical tensions [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the previous trend, breaking the 3825 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 3950. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: With cooling geopolitical tensions and a cold macro environment, olefins weakened. Plastic has weak seasonal demand and high supply pressure, with a negative medium - term driving force. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction at a high level [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with position reduction but has not broken the short - term support at 6830. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36] Soda Ash - Logic: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory continue. Although there is a slight inventory reduction due to pre - holiday restocking, the far - month premium is expected to be gradually corrected downward. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a decline with large position reduction after reaching a high point. The breakthrough last Thursday afternoon is considered a false breakthrough. The short - term resistance is in the 1215 - 1225 range. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 1225 [40] PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, and the demand is weak with no expected reversal. However, the expected increase in industrial electricity prices provides short - term cost support [42] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high point and then declined. The short - term support is at 4860. Look for low - buying opportunities after the correction on the hourly cycle [44]