| | | | 11/11/11/2 | 操作评级 | 2025年11月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破了前期震荡区间,关注后续走势。棉花现货套保咯有增加,一口价报价低价咯有减少,高价变动不大。虽然今年 新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春 节前需求能否出现小旺季。市场对于国内新年度的种植有一定的利多预期，目标价格或有所变化。关注郑棉突破后的走势，短 朗上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至1 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 「周度要点小结」 策略建议： br2601合约短线预计在10100-10700区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周山东市场顺丁橡胶价格窄幅震荡，现货价格区间在9750-10650元/吨。中石化化 销BR9000出厂价格在10400元/吨，中石油各销售公司BR9000出厂价格在10400-10500元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升。本周民营资源供应充足， 且成本面缺乏进一步带动因素影响下，下游压价心态坚决，现货商谈重心延续承压，生产企业库 存及贸易企业库存均表现增长。考虑茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置检修和部分装置重启后产量释放，整 体供应面变动预计有限，而下游需求面或延续压价跟进，短期生产企业库存及贸易企业库存增量 预计有限。需求方面，本周部分半钢胎企业检修，拖拽企业产能利用率走低；全钢胎检修企业复 工，产能利用率恢复性提升。下周随着检修企业开工逐步恢复至常规水平，将带动整体产能利用 率恢复性提升，但部 ...

化肥价格稳中略涨，其中尿素与前一周基本持平，三元复合肥上涨0.4%。 成品油批发价格基本平稳，其中92号汽油、95号汽油均与前一周基本持平，0号柴油上涨0.1%。 有色金属价格小幅回落，其中铝、锌、铜分别下降0.9%、0.9%和0.3%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.3%，聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降2.1%和 1.3%。 橡胶价格继续上涨，其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别上涨0.9%和0.8%。 煤炭价格略有波动，其中动力煤、无烟块煤每吨793元和1167元，分别上涨0.6%和0.2%，炼焦煤每吨 1073元，下降0.3%。 钢材价格略有上涨，其中螺纹钢、热轧带钢、高速线材每吨3337元、3490元和3523元，分别上涨 0.5%、0.4%和0.2%。 商务大数据显示，11月17日至23日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）上涨0.2%。 ...

生产资料市场：基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.3%，聚丙烯、甲醇分 别下降2.1%和1.3%。橡胶价格继续上涨，其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别上涨0.9%和0.8%。煤炭价格略 有波动，其中动力煤、无烟块煤每吨793元和1167元，分别上涨0.6%和0.2%，炼焦煤每吨1073元，下降 0.3%。钢材价格略有上涨，其中螺纹钢、热轧带钢、高速线材每吨3337元、3490元和3523元，分别上 涨0.5%、0.4%和0.2%。化肥价格稳中略涨，其中尿素与前一周基本持平，三元复合肥上涨0.4%。成品 油批发价格基本平稳，其中92号汽油、95号汽油均与前一周基本持平，0号柴油上涨0.1%。有色金属价 格小幅回落，其中铝、锌、铜分别下降0.9%、0.9%和0.3%。 商务大数据显示，11月17日至23日，全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）下降0.1%，生 产资料市场价格比前一周上涨0.2%。 食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.62元，下降0.9%，其中莴笋、西兰花、菠菜分别下降 8.0%、7.7%和3.8%。禽产品批发价格小幅下降，其中鸡蛋、白条鸡分别下降1.1%和0. ...

l js 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/28 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 10/28 | 11/21 | 11/25 | 11/26 | 11/27 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约(12) | 10805 | 10385 | 10270 | 10360 | 10400 | 40 | 15 | | | | 持仓量 | 48651 | 68247 | 68735 | 63030 | 58829 | -4201 | -9418 | | | 需值 | 成交量 | 112436 | 167355 | 114069 | 129096 | 82482 | -46614 | -84873 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8580 | 12030 | 12500 | 15380 | 15450 | 70 | 3420 | | | | 虚实比 | 28.35 | 28.37 | 27.49 | 20.49 | 19.04 | -1 | -9 | | | | 顺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, PP,烧碱,苯乙烯: Trend Weak [2][31][35][59] - MEG: Hold Long MEG and Short PX [2] - 橡胶: Oscillating with an Upward Bias [2] - 合成橡胶: Oscillating, with Fundamental Pressure but Valuation Support [2] - 沥青: Rising Production, Accelerated Inventory Reduction in the North [2] - LLDPE: Positive Basis, Ample Supply [2] - 纸浆: Oscillating [2] - 玻璃: Stable Raw Sheet Prices [2] - 甲醇: Short - term Rebound Continues [2] - 尿素: Trading in a Range, Following Spot Sentiment Intraday [2] - 纯碱: Little Change in the Spot Market [2] - LPG: Strong External Market, Decent Demand [2] - 丙烯: Weakening Demand Support, Limited Upside Drivers [2] - PVC: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 燃料油: Oscillating, Reduced Short - term Fluctuations [2] - 低硫燃料油: Continuing the Adjustment Trend, Slight Rebound in the High - Low Sulfur Spread of External Spot [2] - 集运指数（欧线）: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 短纤, 瓶片: Short - term Oscillation, Medium - term Pressure [2] - 胶版印刷纸: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 纯苯: Short - term Oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - For PX, PTA, the trend is weak, suggest exiting long positions and holding long MEG and short PTA/PX hedges [4][7][9] - For MEG, the price is at a low level, with improved supply - demand balance in December, suggest closing short positions and anti - arbitrage, and holding long MEG and short PX hedges [7][9] - For 橡胶, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias due to supply tightening expectations and raw material price support [10][13] - For 合成橡胶, it will oscillate as it faces fundamental pressure from inventory but has valuation support from international prices and natural rubber events [14][16][17] - For 沥青, production is rising and inventory in the north is being reduced rapidly, with a downward trend in future production [18][27] - For LLDPE, the basis is positive but supply remains ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [28][29] - For PP, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but mid - term trend pressure persists due to high supply and weak demand [31][32] - For 烧碱, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, with limited cost support and downward pressure [35][37] - For 纸浆, it will oscillate as the market is in a stalemate with high inventory and weak demand [41][45] - For 玻璃, raw sheet prices are stable, with cost support but weak downstream orders [48][49] - For 甲醇, the short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals still face pressure [51][54] - For 尿素, it will trade in a range, with high domestic supply pressure but weakened downward drive by policies, and clear support and resistance levels [56][58] - For 苯乙烯, it will oscillate in the short term, with a slightly stronger pattern than pure benzene but limited rebound height [59][60] - For 纯碱, the spot market changes little, with stable production and demand, and is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62] - For LPG, the external market is strong and demand is decent, while for 丙烯, demand support is weakening [65][66] - For PVC, it is at a low level, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is hard to change in the short term [74] - For 燃料油, it oscillates with reduced short - term fluctuations, and 低硫燃料油 continues the adjustment trend [77] - For 集运指数（欧线）, it oscillates at a low level [79] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6718元/吨，跌0.83%；PTA主力4632元/吨，跌1.11%；MEG主力3873元/吨，跌0.59% [5] - **Market Dynamics**: PX价格下跌，PTA装置负荷调整至73.7%，MEG部分装置有重启和检修计划 [6] - **Trend Strength**: PX和PTA趋势强度为 - 1，MEG为0 [7] - **Suggestions**: Exit long positions in PX and PTA, hold long MEG and short PX/PTA hedges, close short positions and anti - arbitrage in MEG [7][9] 橡胶 - **Fundamental Data**: 橡胶主力日盘收盘价15,280元/吨，夜盘15,465元/吨，成交量减少，持仓量减少 [11] - **Industry News**: The natural rubber market had large long - short divergence this week, with prices oscillating downward. Supply tightening expectations supported prices, but inventory and export data dragged them down [12][13] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [11] 合成橡胶 - **Fundamental Data**: 顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价10,400元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [14] - **Industry News**: Butadiene inventory increased significantly this period, and domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory also rose. The market oscillates with pressure and support [14][16][17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [16] 沥青 - **Fundamental Data**: BU2601昨日收盘价3,007元/吨，跌1.18%；炼厂开工率34.11%， up 4.26%；炼厂库存率25.89%， down 0.04% [18] - **Market News**: As of November 27, factory and social inventories decreased, and December production is expected to decline [27] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [26] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: L2601昨日收盘价6699元/吨，跌0.12%，基差转正 [28] - **Spot News**: The futures market opened low and oscillated, with the basis in North China gradually repaired. Middle - East and US offers declined, and arrivals in Q1 2026 may increase [28] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [30] PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP2601昨日收盘价6295元/吨，跌0.03% [31] - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market weakened this week, with the price center slightly moving down [32] - **Market Analysis**: Supply pressure is high, but short - term short - chasing is not advisable due to improved short - term trading. Mid - term pressure persists [32] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [33] 烧碱 - **Fundamental Data**: 01合约期货价格2238元/吨，山东最便宜可交割现货32碱价格760元/吨 [35] - **Spot News**: Factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda enterprises increased, and the storage ratio rose in all regions [36] - **Market Analysis**: High production and inventory continue, with limited cost support and downward pressure [37] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [38] 纸浆 - **Fundamental Data**: 纸浆主力日盘收盘价5,184元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [43] - **Industry News**: The imported pulp market shows a "weak softwood, strong hardwood" pattern, with high inventory and weak demand [44][45] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [43] 玻璃 - **Fundamental Data**: FG601昨日收盘价1041元/吨，涨1.46% [49] - **Spot News**: Float glass prices were stable with a weakening trend, with cost support but weak downstream orders [49] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [49] 甲醇 - **Fundamental Data**: 甲醇主力收盘价2,114元/吨，成交量 increased,持仓量 decreased [51] - **Spot News**: The port methanol market rebounded, and inventory decreased significantly. The inland market also rose [53] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals face pressure [54] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [55] 尿素 - **Fundamental Data**: 尿素主力收盘价1,668元/吨，成交量 decreased,持仓量 increased [56] - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventory decreased in most regions this period, and trading volume increased recently. High supply pressure exists but is mitigated by policies [57][58] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [58] 苯乙烯 - **Fundamental Data**: 苯乙烯2512收盘价6,487元/吨， down 86 [59] - **Spot News**: The pure benzene market oscillates, with weak domestic chemical drive and strong overseas blending drive. The styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene but with limited rebound [60] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [59] 纯碱 - **Fundamental Data**: SA2601昨日收盘价1,176元/吨，涨0.26% [62] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, with stable production and demand, and is expected to be stable and oscillate in the short term [62] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [63] LPG, 丙烯 - **Fundamental Data**: PG2512昨日收盘价4,363元/吨，跌0.46%；PL2601收盘价5,871元/吨，涨0.31% [66] - **Market News**: CP paper prices rose on November 27. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71][72] - **Trend Strength**: Both are 0 [70] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: 01合约期货价格4517元/吨，华东现货价格4450元/吨 [74] - **Spot News**: The domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with some devices having production - cut expectations [74] - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates at a low level, with a high - production and high - inventory pattern hard to change in the short term [74] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [75] 燃料油, 低硫燃料油 - **Fundamental Data**: FU2601昨日收盘价2,471元/吨，涨0.16%；LU2601收盘价3,023元/吨， unchanged [77] - **Trend Strength**: Both are 0 [77] 集运指数（欧线） - **Fundamental Data**: EC2512昨日收盘价1,779.7，涨0.69% [79] - **Trend Strength**: No specific strength mentioned, but it oscillates at a low level [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - **Logic**: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - **Logic**: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - **Logic**: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - **Outlook**: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Logic**: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10400 | 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 58829 | -4201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2950 | 70 | | 现货市场 | | 10400 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10350 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 140 | 东(日,元/吨) -90 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures on November 27, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. For example, PX is advised not to be chased at high prices in the short term, and MEG's supply - demand pattern is improving [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term not to chase high, with the price rising on November 26. The spread between PX and naphtha continues to expand. Suggest to exit long positions, go long MEG and short PX, and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage position [2][6][10]. - **PTA**: In a unilateral oscillating market, not to chase high. Valuation is at a high level, suggest to exit long positions and go long MEG and short PTA for hedging [2][10]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand balance sheet improves, suggest to cut short positions, take profit on short - position and reverse - arbitrage, and go long MEG and short PX for hedging [2][10]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trend strength is 1. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume has also increased. In October 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports showed a short - term slowdown, and the export orders in November were weak [11][12][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. The inventory of domestic butadiene and butadiene rubber has increased. The short - term is in a weak decline, and the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [15][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is following the weak trend of crude oil. The trend strength is - 1. The production capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the shipment volume has also increased. The planned production volume in December has decreased [19][27][28]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a situation where import offers may decrease and cracking load is disturbed. The trend strength is 0. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid demand. The supply side has some short - term contradictions, and medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure [29][30]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, do not chase short positions in the PP market, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The supply side is currently under high pressure, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit of PP limits the downward space [31][32][33]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is also limited, and long - term negative feedback may occur in the industry chain [35][37][38]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. In November 2025, the pulp market showed a pattern of "weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp". The price changes are affected by factors such as financial attributes, cost, and supply - demand structure [40][42][44]. 3.9 Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The trend strength is 0. The spot price is slightly weak, the cost support is increasing, but the processing factory orders are average, and the trading volume is general [47][48]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market continues the short - term rebound pattern. The trend strength is 1. The spot price index has increased, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term rebound is due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and capital games, while the medium - term fundamentals are still under pressure [50][52][53]. 3.11 Urea - The urea market is operating within a range, and the intraday trend mainly follows the spot sentiment. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The domestic fundamentals are under pressure, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [55][56][57]. 3.12 Styrene - The styrene market is oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is - 1. The pure benzene market is oscillating, and the styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise device is stable with minor fluctuations, the downstream demand is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62][63]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The external market is strong, and the demand is acceptable. The trend strength is 0. The CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane have increased [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The demand support is weakening, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is 0 [22][66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC market is oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The market is in a weak oscillation, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. Although the absolute valuation is low, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [74][75]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating at night, may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continuing the adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market has shrunk again. The trend strength is 0 [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is operating weakly. The trend strength is not explicitly stated, but the market shows a weak trend with fluctuations in freight rates and trading volumes [79].