Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous impact of the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene within the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, further reducing supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 18,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 16,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 65,209 lots, a decrease of 7,028 lots. The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse was 24,980 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 1,415 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 112.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.21 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 17,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,450 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 2,580 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil was 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar market, the overseas market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and the new - season sugar - making process in Brazil. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets that Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio will favor ethanol, tightening the final sugar supply. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion with an expected increase. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the high price of raw sugar and the potential policy bottom provide support. Zheng sugar may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. The demand side has some drag, and the inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point. However, the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment. The synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. The rising cost of raw materials and the expected reduction in supply make its price likely to continue to rise in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market 1. Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.79% and night - session closing at 5418 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5431 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.66% and night - session closing at 5448 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 contract was at 15.51 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.19% [1]. 2. Important Information - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado expects Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.3 million tons, down from 43.5 million tons in the previous season. - As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 million tons (2.21%); the ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year; the cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%); the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) [1]. - In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is near the end, with 183 out of 210 sugar mills having stopped production, and the remaining 27 mills are expected to stop within the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April. In Guangxi, China, 10 more sugar mills stopped production from March 27th to 30th. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 16,862, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. 3. Market Logic - Overseas: The ICE market is in wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the final sugar production in India and Thailand and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. Due to geopolitical factors, the market bets on Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio favoring ethanol, tightening the sugar supply. Short - term attention should be paid to overseas macro trends and Brazil's actual production [1]. - Domestic: Zheng sugar declined yesterday, and the main contract closed above 5400 at night. The domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season is nearing completion, and the expected increase in production is basically achieved. The domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose, but the approaching sugar - making season in Brazil and the tense Middle - East situation make Brazil's sugar - making prospects unclear. The high price of raw sugar provides some support, and there is also a potential policy bottom. Technically, Zheng sugar is still in an upward channel, but there is pressure above, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for Zheng sugar, and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market 1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.18%; the NR main contract closed at 13,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.73%; the BR main contract closed at 17,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.12% [4]. 2. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 80 Thai baht/kg (0.5/1%), and the cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg (0/0%). In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,300 yuan/ton (300/2%), and for producing concentrated latex was 15,300 yuan/ton (100/0.66%), with a price difference of 0 yuan/ton (- 200). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,800 yuan/ton (0/0%); in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (0/0%), and for producing concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton (0/0%) [4]. - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded - area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general - trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples in Qingdao decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general - trade warehouses increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,250 yuan/ton (- 150/- 0.91%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,015 US dollars/ton (- 20/- 0.98%), equivalent to 13,943 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,700 yuan/ton (- 100/- 0.63%) [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 645 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 95 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 17,600 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The natural rubber market oscillated weakly yesterday and rebounded at night. The seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, while the new - season tapping in China may suppress prices. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The inventory in Qingdao has not reached the de - stocking inflection point, which suppresses the rubber price. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are mixed, but the high prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber create a bullish sentiment [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR is still in an upward channel. The continuous impact of crude oil and frequent news of butadiene exports have increased the raw - material cost of cis - butadiene rubber, and some merchants' quoting intentions remain firm. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber continues to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. In the short term, the price of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to rise, and its price will fluctuate according to the macro situation and upstream production [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For the RU main contract, pay attention to whether it can stand above 16,750, and if so, look for pressure at 17,000; for the NR main contract, pay attention to the pressure around 14,000; hold the long positions of BR [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: April 1, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volume, inventory, and profit margins of BR and BD, providing data support for market participants to understand the market situation [4] Grouped Key Points BR Market - **Price and Trading Metrics**: The BR主力合约收盘价 was 17,350 on March 31, down 375 from the previous day and up 550 from the previous week. The持仓量 was 72,237, down 14,968 from the previous day and 2,428 from the previous week. The成交量 was 683,189, down 117,690 from the previous day and up 85,438 from the previous week [4] - **Inventory and Basis**: The仓単数量 was 48,740, down 60 from the previous day and up 890 from the previous week. The虚实比 was 7.41, down 2 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. The顺丁基差 was 650, up 375 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The丁苯基差 was 850, up 175 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4] - **Spread and Inter - Variety Metrics**: The 05 - 06 spread was 195, with a change of -120 from the previous week. The 06 - 07 spread was 290, with a change of 40 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was -1,005, up 180 from the previous day and down 430 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was -3,745, up 135 from the previous day and down 255 from the previous week [4] - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 700 from the previous week. The传化市场价 was 17,700, down 350 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The齐鲁出厂价 was 19,000, up 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR东北亚 was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR东南亚 was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The现货加工利润 was -2,254, up 408 from the previous day and 1,159 from the previous week. The进口利润 was -850, unchanged from the previous day and with a change of -1,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,677, unchanged from the previous day and down 568 from the previous week [4] BD Market - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 17,700, down 400 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The江苏市场价 was 17,850, down 250 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The扬子出厂价 was 18,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week. The CFR中国 was 2,580, unchanged from the previous day and up 280 from the previous week. The乙烯裂解利润 was -8 on March 30, and data for March 31 was not available. The碳四抽提利润 on March 27 was 6,749, and data for March 31 was not available. The进口利润 was -2,451, down 250 from the previous day and 2,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,601, up 1,946 from the previous day and 9,309 from the previous week. The丁苯生产利润 on March 27 was 88, and data for March 31 was not available. The ABS生产利润 on March 24 was -1,659, and data for March 31 was not available. The SBS生产利润 on March 27 was -1,535, and data for March 31 was not available [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of tin is tight and the demand is resilient, so the tin price is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [1] - The domestic methanol market has a high operating rate, and the demand has a phased recovery. The methanol price is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [2] - The national pig price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and the inventory is expected to decline significantly. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term [4] - The short - term soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] - The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the game between mine - end support and macro disturbances [5] - Short - term cautious operation for crude oil, and the medium - term trend depends on the war situation [6] - Short - term trading is recommended for polyester staple fiber [7] - Short - term cautious operation for synthetic rubber, and the medium - term trend depends on the war situation [8] - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Do not be overly bullish on the 30 - year treasury bond [9] - The polypropylene price is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - The float glass price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] - Platinum and palladium passively follow the silver's fluctuation with limited amplitude in the short term [12] - Gold has short - term support for rebound and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the medium term [12] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Tin - On March 31, the average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots was 371,000 yuan/ton, up 9,500 yuan/ton from March 30. The processing fees of tin concentrates were flat. The global tin mine supply lacks elasticity, and the AI - driven semiconductor industry boosts the demand for solder. Supply - demand factors lead to the expected short - term price trend [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest increased by 0.03 million tons to 4.83 million tons. The price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The port inventory decreased by 5.11 million tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 10.39% week - on - week. The domestic methanol operating rate is high, downstream demand recovers, and the inventory continues to decline [2] Pig - On March 31, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 15.31 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with support from second - fattening and early - month volume reduction, but the demand increase is limited [4] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from March 1 - 31, 2026, were 1,607,065 tons, up 56.72% from the previous month. The exports are strong, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly due to import profit inversion [4] Soybean Meal - On March 31, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in some regions decreased. Some oil - mill inventories are decreasing, and downstream procurement is cautious. The expected relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process suppresses the bullish sentiment [5] Copper - CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee in 2026. The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the demand side shows inventory reduction and increased restocking willingness. The copper price is affected by mine - end support and macro disturbances [5] Crude Oil - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels. The market's hope for the end of the Middle - East war has risen, causing the overnight oil price to drop significantly. Short - term cautious operation and medium - term focus on the war situation [6] Polyester Staple Fiber - In February 2026, China's export of uncombed polyester staple fiber decreased by 18.08% month - on - month. The export volume is expected to decline in March - April. The weak demand is the core contradiction in the pure - polyester yarn market [7] Synthetic Rubber - In March 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 9.68% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate decreased, and the production profit dropped significantly. The supply is tightening due to raw material shortages [8] Lead - From January - February 2026, China's refined lead imports increased by 732.08% year - on - year. The supply is supplemented by imports, and the cost support exists. The demand from downstream battery enterprises is stable [9] 30 - Year Treasury Bond - In March 2026, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range. The economic data recovery is negative for the bond market, and the rebound of the 30 - year treasury bond is limited [9] Polypropylene - The East - China polypropylene spot price decreased by 159 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased, the commercial inventory decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased. The supply is expected to tighten further [10] Float Glass - The national float glass average price was flat. The industry average operating rate decreased slightly, the profit improved slightly, and the inventory decreased by 1.09% week - on - week. The terminal real - estate demand is still declining [11] Platinum and Palladium - Fed officials are worried about inflation and economic downward pressure. Platinum and palladium may stop falling and stabilize, but the industrial attribute limits the rebound due to economic concerns [12] Gold - Market expectations for the end of the war have risen, risk preference has increased, and the interest - rate cut expectation has slightly returned. Gold has short - term support for rebound and is expected to oscillate widely in the medium term [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month. The fundamental factors of natural rubber present a situation of both support and pressure. The macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, but the upward trend of synthetic rubber restricts the downward space of natural rubber prices [8][90][91] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In March 2026, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber fluctuated in the range of 15,885 - 17,600 yuan/ton, with a high - level oscillation. It dropped significantly after two surges at the beginning of the month and rebounded in the late month, with a large overall decline in the month. As of March 31, 2026, it closed at 16,345 yuan/ton, down 810 points or 4.72% for the month [6][13] 现货 Price - As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous month. As of March 30, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,560 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous month [17][20] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with the previous month. As of March 31, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 190 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than the previous month [24] Domestic and Foreign Prices of Natural Rubber - As of March 31, the domestic price of natural rubber dropped significantly compared with the previous month, while the foreign price rose slightly [28] Important Market Information - The US and Iran are in talks to end the military operation in Iran, but there are differences in positions between the two sides. Iran plans to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US PPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in February rose as expected. The global economic growth rate is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. China's economic data shows that the CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the PPI decreased 0.9% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased 15.2% year - on - year. The auto sales in February decreased, but the auto export increased [32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Supply - side Situation - As of January 31, 2026, the production in the main producing areas of Thailand and Malaysia increased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia, India, and Vietnam decreased slightly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period with zero production. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in January 2026 was 990,500 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons or 1.71% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. As of February 28, 2026, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 7,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [42][47][51] Demand - side Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.24%, down 0.01% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 70.75%, up 0.03% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, China's monthly auto production was 1.6724 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.73%. The monthly auto sales were 1.8052 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 23.07%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 73,553 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.18%. As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 106.263 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. As of February 28, 2026, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 56.07 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The auto sales in major global countries in February 2026 showed different trends [56][59][64][67][71][74][78] Inventory - side Situation - As of March 31, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,410 tons, an increase of 10,940 tons from the previous month. As of March 22, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 685,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18% from the previous period [82][87] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic rubber - tapping is gradually starting smoothly. The raw material supply is generally tight, and the purchase price continues to rise, which supports the rubber price. Demand: In March, with the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, and the operating rate has remained at a high level recently. However, the terminal auto market is not performing well. Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last month, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased slightly week - on - week, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week [88][89] 后市 Outlook - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated at a high level in March 2026, with a large overall decline in the month. In the future, the macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, and the supply pressure has been alleviated, with cost support for the rubber price. The demand will form a certain support, but the terminal consumption is average, and the continuous inventory accumulation in Qingdao exerts pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month [90][91] Views and Operation Strategies - This month's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, consider a range - bound operation; for arbitrage and options, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [92]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene rubber plant's scheduled inspection has further reduced supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate, but some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the futures price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,350 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 375. The open interest of the main contract is 72,237, a decrease of 14,968. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 24,980 tons, a decrease of 30 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are all 18,050 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 112.78 US dollars/barrel, and the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 18,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil is 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.95 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons, and the trader's inventory is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces, and the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. Industry News - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material price is firm during the low - production season, the supply is expected to increase as the tapping season begins, the demand is recovering well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on the price [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 31, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.82% [1] 3.2 Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of natural rubber was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons or a growth rate of 1.36%. The import volume was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - festival stocking and arbitrage trading support the high import volume. The global natural rubber is mainly flowing to the Chinese market. The global natural rubber producing areas have normal phenology this year. Starting from mid - March in Yunnan, the world will enter a new tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and there is an increasing expectation of new rubber supply in the future [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 27, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 78.30%, and that of all - steel tires was 70.77%, both higher than the average in the same period over the years. The recovery of tire production line operating rates and the strong export of automobiles drive the downstream to have a stronger purchasing intention, and there may be follow - up purchase orders. The high price of synthetic rubber stimulates some enterprises to increase the substitution purchase of natural rubber, which provides short - term support for the price [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to the survey data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 27, the inventory of general trade warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao was 566,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 0.78% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area of Qingdao was 141,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 0.42% from the previous period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment tendencies: - **Strongly Bullish**: None - **Bullish**: PX, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, LPG,丙烯,尿素 - **Neutral**: PTA, rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, short - fiber, bottle - chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene, container shipping index (European line) - **Bearish**: fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [9][10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX, PTA, MEG**: In the short - term, they are in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, they tend to be bullish. PX faces the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. PTA has ample supply in the short - term but is expected to see a decline in inventory in April. MEG has a significant reduction in supply, with a clear decrease in Middle - East sources and a decline in domestic production capacity utilization [9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows wide - range fluctuations. The rise in raw material prices in the tire industry has led to increased costs and reduced profits. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the downstream demand recovery is slow [12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations during the day. The decline in butadiene inventory has reduced the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industry chain. Geopolitical conflicts may increase intraday volatility [16][18]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. PP will see an increase in cracking and PDH maintenance in April, with strong supply support. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost of raw materials, and the demand side shows different trends [19][20]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is at a low valuation level and may show a bullish - biased oscillatory trend later. Although there are short - term factors such as delivery pressure and high inventory, the expected improvement in domestic supply - demand contradictions and the potential increase in procurement prices support the market [24][25]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the upstream - downstream supply - demand contradiction persists. Attention should be paid to the changes in external market prices and downstream replenishment willingness [30][31]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand, with slightly slow recent transactions [34][35]. - **Methanol**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. Geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in expected imports from Iran, and the port inventory is expected to decline [37][41]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up. The domestic fundamentals are in a neutral - to - bullish pattern, but policy constraints limit the upside space. It is expected to operate within a range [43][46]. - **Styrene**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. The reduction in Asian pure - benzene supply, the increase in styrene exports, and the active replenishment of other downstream industries support the price [47][48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The supply of soda - ash enterprises is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is tepid, with a lack of obvious driving factors [53][55]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances. Propylene has fundamental support and a bullish trend. Geopolitical factors affect the price and supply of LPG, and the fundamentals of propylene are relatively strong [59][63]. - **PVC**: It shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and supply disturbances support the market [67][68]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil maintains a high level in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market continues to decline [71]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The near - month contract 2604 fluctuates in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the market [73][83]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: They are in a high - level oscillatory state, and the cost drive is still upward. The prices of upstream raw materials affect the prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip, and the market trading atmosphere is general [89][90]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see attitude. The market price is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [92][93]. - **Pure Benzene**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. The decline in port inventory and the increase in market prices support the price [97][98]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 9840 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The spot price was 1275.67 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars. An East - China 100 - million - ton PX device is scheduled for maintenance. The price is affected by the contradiction between cost and demand, and it is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [5][9]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 6768 yuan/ton, down 1.57%. A 70 - million - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, restarted. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on EB and short on PTA [5][10]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 5359 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The port inventory was about 107.5 million tons, up 3.6 million tons. A 180 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol device had part of its units restarted and part scheduled for maintenance. The supply is tight, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be in a long position [5][10]. Rubber - The closing price of the main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton during the day and 16,555 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The price of tire raw materials increased, and the profit of tires decreased. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and downstream demand [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The closing price of the main contract of cis - butadiene rubber was 17,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The butadiene inventory decreased, and the synthetic rubber market is affected by geopolitical conflicts [16][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: The closing price of the L2605 contract was 8804 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The plastic start - up rate was 74%. The supply contraction continues, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and cost transmission [19][20]. - **PP**: The closing price of the PP2605 contract was 9269 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The start - up rate of PP decreased to 66%. The supply is supported by increased maintenance in April, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [19][20]. Caustic Soda - The 05 - contract futures price was 2353 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton. Although there are short - term pressures, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [24][25]. Paper Pulp - The closing price of the main contract was 5182 yuan/ton during the day and 5162 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The market lacks clear guidance, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [30][31]. Glass - The closing price of the FG605 contract was 1040 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The domestic float - glass market price was generally stable, and the downstream orders were weak [34][35]. Methanol - The closing price of the main contract was 3319 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. Geopolitical factors support the price [38][41]. Urea - The closing price of the main contract was 1882 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the market is in a neutral - to - bullish pattern, with the price center moving up [44][46]. Styrene - The closing price of the 2604 contract was 10,811 yuan/ton, up 144 yuan. The reduction in pure - benzene supply, the increase in exports, and the active replenishment of downstream industries support the price [47][48]. Soda Ash - The closing price of the SA2605 contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The domestic soda - ash market was stable with light trading, and the supply and demand were tepid [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The closing price of the PG2604 contract was 6616 yuan/ton, down 3.20%. Geopolitical risks and supply disturbances affect the market [59][64]. - **Propylene**: The closing price of the PL2605 contract was 8944 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The fundamentals are supported, and the trend is bullish [59][63]. PVC - The 05 - contract futures price was 5551 yuan/ton, and the East - China spot price was 5450 yuan/ton. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase, while in the long - term, geopolitical factors support the market [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The closing price of the FU2605 contract was 4619 yuan/ton, up 3.47%. It maintains a high level in the short - term [71]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The closing price of the LU2605 contract was 5285 yuan/ton, up 2.48%. It remains weak, and the price difference with high - sulfur fuel oil continues to decline [71]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The closing price of the EC2604 contract was 1735.0, down 3.80%. The spot loading is under pressure, the near - month contract fluctuates in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors [73][83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Short - Fiber**: The closing price of the 2604 contract was 8278 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan. The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price increased. The sales were light [89][90]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The closing price of the 2604 contract was 8368 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. The upstream raw material price increased, and the market trading atmosphere was general [89][90]. Offset Printing Paper - The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets were relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction persisted. It is advisable to wait and see [92][93]. Pure Benzene - The closing price of the BZ2605 contract was 9062 yuan/ton, up 182 yuan. The port inventory decreased, and the market price increased [97][98].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market is in a wide - range shock state [1] - The tire market is facing cost pressure and profit shrinkage due to rising raw material prices, and the implementation of price - increase policies faces significant resistance [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of the rubber main contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 16,540 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,555 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 49,928 hands to 183,593 hands, and the open interest of the 05 contract decreased by 10,483 hands to 81,467 hands. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 125,410 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,338 hands to 11,930 hands [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" increased by 20 to - 140, the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 90 to - 740, and the month - spread of "RU05 - RU09" increased by 20 to - 25 [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all increased. The prices of substitute products, such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber, decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton, while Qilu cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 18,000 yuan/ton. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber, also increased [2] 2. Industry News - As of March 30, more tire companies are raising prices, with an increase of 3 - 5% and most price - increase implementation times concentrated on April 1. Some companies have raised prices through recycling policies, and some have restricted shipments to customers who have completed their purchase tasks. However, the overall product supply is tight, and some companies have obvious shortages, which affects the shipment volume to a certain extent [3][4] - In March, due to geopolitical disturbances, the price of crude oil rose significantly, leading to a general increase in the prices of petrochemical raw materials such as synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives. Although the upstream price - increase policy has driven the downstream replenishment sentiment to some extent, this round of replenishment is mainly a transfer of inventory from manufacturers to channels. The channel inventory is at a high level, and the release of terminal demand still takes time, resulting in significant resistance to the implementation of the price - increase policy [5] - The raw material costs of tires, including natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives, have increased this month, and the profit of tire products has further shrunk. As of March 27, 2026, the theoretical profit of mid - range brand 205/55R16 semi - steel tires was - 1.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.05 yuan/kg compared with last month and 2.09 yuan/kg compared with last year. The theoretical profit of economy - type 12R22.5 all - steel tires was - 1.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.50 yuan/kg compared with last month and 0.10 yuan/kg compared with last year [4]