Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are accumulating, and global oil is slightly de - stocking. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, while the overhaul rate of Middle - East refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and potential OPEC production - increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern. In the fourth quarter, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 13 - 19, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $1.30, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.54. SC increased by 5.70, and OMAN decreased by 1.22. Other related prices such as those of refined products and differentials also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The Kremlin stated that it could arrange a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump if necessary. News of the decline in the signal of the Russia - Ukraine peace process led to a drop in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high, and production hit a two - and - a - half - year peak [3][4]. 3. Inventory - In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels, and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 702,000 barrels per day. UAE's Fujaidira Port's refined oil inventory increased by 3.204 million barrels in the week of November 12. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters in the week of November 08. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased [5].

【钢材】价格持稳 周二期现价格持稳,但现货成交量回落,市场主动追涨动能偏弱。宏观层面,下个观察期在12月初以后;重点观察并跟踪 | | | | | | | | Ext ENGEREN | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | 1000 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Weak [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The coking coal price has risen significantly, and the short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market needs to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] - The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. [3] - The log market is expected to have weak oscillation due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation due to the weakening of cost support and the poor demand. The oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation due to the concerns about supply and demand. The meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] - The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price due to the increase in demand and the slowdown in slaughter. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation due to the impact of weather on supply and the recovery of demand. [7] - The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. [9] Industry Summaries Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a record high in recent years, with a month-on-month increase of 12.298 million tons and an increase of 59%. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal price has risen significantly due to the overseas interest rate cut, the easing of Sino-US relations, and the exceeding of market expectations by the 14th Five-Year Plan. The short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. [2] - Rebar and coil: The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts of more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy. The steel market still has supply and demand contradictions and is mainly in oscillation adjustment. [2] - Glass: The cold repair of 4 production lines in Shahe is expected to be seen this week, with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons. The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Chinese government has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. [2][3] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The central bank has carried out 65.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds is 492.2 billion yuan. [3] - Gold and silver: The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. The silver market also has a high-level oscillation trend. [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased month-on-month, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import volume of logs shows a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure increases. The log market is expected to have weak oscillation. [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices weakens, and the demand is poor. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation. [5] - Double-adhesive paper: The supply pressure of double-adhesive paper still exists, and the market expectation is cautious. The double-adhesive paper market is expected to oscillate. [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil market has high inventory and increasing production, and the oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation. [5] - Meal: The Chinese government has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products, and the meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs has decreased slightly. The demand for large pigs has increased, and the price of large pigs has remained strong. The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price. [7] - Rubber: The supply of rubber raw materials is stable in Yunnan and affected by weather in Hainan. The demand for rubber has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation. [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PX price follows the oil price fluctuation. [9] - PTA: The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The cost support for PTA prices is weakened. [9] - MEG: The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. The short-term cost fluctuation is large. [9] - PR: The polyester bottle chip market may oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of effective driving factors. [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber market may have weak consolidation due to the overnight oil price decline and the lack of obvious positive factors. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with red dates futures experiencing a downward trend and weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for red dates opened at 9675.00 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 9755.00 CNY and a low of 9560.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.37% [1]. - The overall market sentiment for red dates is pessimistic, with the main contract showing a downward trend and testing support levels [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply of red dates is sufficient, with markets in Hebei and Guangdong reporting stable arrivals and a preference for older stock over new [1]. - The overall production for the year is expected to remain around 550,000 ± 50,000 tons, indicating a clear oversupply situation [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with increased short positions and a decline in the long-short ratio [2]. - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is anticipated to boost end-consumer demand for red dates, although the market remains cautious [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of futures prices rising and then falling, with spot prices slightly increasing. There are positive factors in the macro - level, but the industry faces challenges such as high production and insufficient demand. The resolution of high - production issues requires time to accumulate contradictions [4] - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. They are affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply - demand balance, and cost [4] - For coking coal and coke, the spot procurement sentiment has slowed down, and the futures are challenging the "anti - involution" trading high. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future [4] - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating, and it is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities. There may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices rose and then fell on Tuesday, with spot prices slightly increasing and trading volume shrinking. The macro - level has positive factors, and the industry is in a seasonal destocking phase. However, demand lacks explosive power, and it will take time to resolve high - production problems. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between hot rolled coils and rebar when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for arbitrage. Also, perform rolling stop - profit for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Due to weak downstream demand, the black sector is under pressure. Although they rebounded under factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a warm macro - environment, the rebound space is narrowing. The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere is average, and a northwest coking enterprise has initiated the third price increase, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not responded. The procurement sentiment has slowed down. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating, and the prices of coking coal and coke on the disk are weakening. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot when the coke disk is at a premium [4] Iron Ore - There are many trade disputes, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of negotiation results on commodities. The supply side has no major problems, but there may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [4]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins, including polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), are in a downward - trending phase. Their price centers are expected to decline in the later period. The reason is that they are in a capacity - release cycle, with new devices coming into operation and high existing production loads. Meanwhile, Q4 may see an increase in imports, leading to large supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and cannot digest the high production volume. As a result, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move down [3]. - In Q3, the polyolefin market had no major contradictions, but the supply - demand pattern was under pressure. New devices were put into production, and demand in the peak season was lower than expected, causing the price center to gradually decline. In Q4, the supply pressure will increase due to expected import growth, the cost - side crude oil outlook is pessimistic, and the oversupply pattern will continue to intensify, further pressuring prices [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Spread Trends**: In July, after a brief rebound, polyolefin prices started to decline. In August and September, prices, especially for PP, weakened. The basis of PP was under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread was at a low level. The basis of PE was stronger than that of PP and has been strengthening since August, but the absolute value was still low. The 1 - 5 spread of PE also weakened against the season [11][18]. - **Spread Analysis**: Before late August, the L - P spread was upward, but then turned downward as the demand for L also failed to meet expectations. The L - V01 and PP - V01 spreads fell in July and then recovered and stabilized in August. Methanol was statically weak, and MTO profits improved [33][34]. 3.2 Supply Review - **Domestic Capacity Release**: In 2025, multiple PP and PE production devices are planned to be put into production. In Q3, PP added 1.3 million tons of production capacity, and there are still 750,000 tons to be put into operation by the end of the year. PE added 900,000 tons of production capacity in Q3, and there are still 1.7 million tons to be put into operation, with slightly greater pressure than PP [39][40]. - **Production - Side Profits**: In Q3, the cost - side oil price center moved down. The profit of the oil - based production end was at the same level as the previous year. LPG supply pressure increased, and PDH profits were poor. With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, coal prices rebounded, CTO profits shrank but remained high, and inland MTO profits deteriorated [65]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: From January to August, the supply of PP and PE remained high. In Q3, PP devices operated stably with few maintenance cases, but parking increased in mid - to - late September due to weak demand. PE had more maintenance, especially in September, but the overall supply was still in surplus [72][78]. - **Imports and Exports**: From January to August, PP imports decreased by 9.76% year - on - year, exports increased by 29.01% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 91.68% year - on - year. PE imports decreased by 0.84% year - on - year, exports decreased by 25.91% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 2.66% year - on - year [89][90]. 3.3 Demand Review - **PP Demand**: In Q3, PP demand entered the seasonal peak season but did not meet expectations. Although industries such as agriculture, construction, packaging, and PP pipes showed some improvement in demand, the overall demand was still weaker than expected, increasing the downward pressure on PP prices [115]. - **PE Demand**: PE has a more obvious demand peak - season attribute, but similar to PP, the demand support was not strong. With the approach of the peak season for greenhouse film demand, production has recovered, but it was worse than the same period last year. The packaging film market has slightly improved, but the overall demand has not fully met expectations [133]. 3.4 Inventory Review - **PP Inventory**: Upstream production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and inventory mainly accumulated in the middle - link. Production enterprise inventory, port inventory, and trader inventory data showed the inventory transfer and accumulation situation [134][137]. - **PE Inventory**: PE inventory remained stable, and inventory accumulated in the middle - link during the off - season. With the increase in demand for greenhouse film and packaging film in August, social inventory decreased slightly [151].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the cost line, with support around 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, due to supply - side复产, increased imports, and lack of short - term domestic demand growth, although potential risks at the Guinea mine end may provide a price safety cushion [16][147][151]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation provides macro - level support, and the strengthening of the peak - season fundamentals, along with inventory de - stocking, will drive up the price. Existing long positions can be held [16][147][151]. - Casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The rise in aluminum prices drives up alloy prices, and the increase in raw material costs and the improvement in demand from the automotive market support the price, despite high inventory levels [18][148][152]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important Information**: In August, the US CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Aluminum will be classified as both "critical minerals" and "growth minerals" in the UK's upcoming strategy. Qinghai Baihe Aluminum plans a 500,000 - ton capacity upgrade project [8][9]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,077.47 yuan/ton, down 68.84 yuan/ton from September 5. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. China's electrolytic aluminum production in August 2025 was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in August was 53.3%, up 9.2% from July [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton. The smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory was 625,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, down 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 72,469 tons, up 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina fluctuated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards [16]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to fall this week, and the spot premium narrowed to about 150 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. In August 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased month - on - month and year - on - year [34]. - **Imports and Exports**: On September 11, the FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 338 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 5. The alumina import window opened, increasing domestic supply pressure [35]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the alumina port inventory was 55,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In July, China's alumina export volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of September 12, coal prices in major regions fluctuated. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in September slightly decreased to about 0.382 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable this week [50][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [56]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%, the highest in the same period in the past four years [58]. - **Spot**: As of September 12, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [61]. - **Price Trend and Premium**: This week, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, the spot price in the spot market rose, and the spot was at a discount. LME aluminum fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot was at a premium [67]. - **Demand**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. In August, the aluminum processing industry PMI reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [68]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [71][76]. - **Imports and Exports**: The aluminum ingot import profit window closed. In August 2025, China exported 534,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to August was 3.996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [80][83]. - **End - Use Markets**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles is relatively bright. From September 1 - 7, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% [92]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloys. The price of scrap aluminum has been rising, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has changed [100][105]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by raw material prices. The spot price of ADC12 has changed, and the overseas price and import profit also show certain trends. The production volume of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloys have their own characteristics [111][114][122]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand end for casting aluminum alloys. The demand for casting aluminum alloys has seasonal characteristics, and the new order index has increased since August [126][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloys includes social inventory and factory - level inventory, and the current inventory level is relatively high [137].