1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

机构观点 消息面 周三，华东PVC市场价格上调，电石法5型料4380-4470元/吨，乙烯料主流参考4450-4650元/吨左右。 本周PVC社会库存样本统计环比增加0.03%至105.93万吨，同比增加27.63%。 上周PVC开工率78.4%(-0.6%)，结束三连升，乙烯法装置复产，电石法降负现象增多，减产规模相当于一套50万吨左右的产能停车，尚难以推动 当下库存转为去化。 广州期货： 新增产能供应压力仍存，市场面临高开工、高库存与弱需求，期价反弹空间受限，近期政策支撑下低估值期价小幅反弹，但整体仍处于低位震荡 格局。 中辉期货： 主力移仓换月，盘面延续走强。反内卷情绪再起，国内商品普遍走强，当前上中游库存仍处高位，内外需求处于季节性淡季，在上中游未出现集 中性检修前，供需过剩矛盾尚难缓解。不过近期氯碱齐跌，西北自备电石法装置已亏现金流，关注装置动态。策略：短期多单轻仓持有；中长期 等待库存持续去化，回调试多。V【4600-4800】。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 过剩局面不改，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-15日沪镍主力合约2601开于115070元/吨，收于114690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.88%，当日成交量 为129996（+29560）手，持仓量为105210（252）手。价格走势延续近期弱势，呈现 \"冲高回落、震荡下行\" 走势， 核心受供需过剩、高库存及技术破位三重压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面矿山多履行前期订单出货为主， 矿山延续挺价心态。游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面， 12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 整体镍矿内贸价格预计仍将有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌精炼 镍现货升贴水多持稳。其中金川镍升水变化100元/吨至5300元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元 ...

中央经济工作会议及美联储会议并无超预期信号释放，宏观扰动暂告 一段落。淡季深入需求转弱，螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力 仍存，基本面难言亮点，钢材盘面延续弱势。冬储补库预期支撑下铁 矿下方仍有支撑，仓单压力以及蒙煤进口增加预期继续压制煤焦价 格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续大幅下滑，环保检修和年度检修均有，钢 厂盈利率环比走弱，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环比略增， 澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增加，本期 到港环比减量明显。港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环比不增反 降，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供增需稳，库存累积，但电炉利润 尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需求仍有支撑。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑弱化，二轮提降落地预期较强，但当 前焦钢企业已逐渐开启原料冬储补库，基本面支撑仍在，当前盘面估 值过低，继续大幅下行驱动不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。焦煤基本 面边际有所改善，但资金偏空之下市场短期仍保持悲观，后续随着交 割尘埃落定及中下游冬储补库逐步开启，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修 复，届时盘面估值有望向上修复。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中 ...

近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块反弹,但总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩,铁水 下调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高 合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 近期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤现货竞拍跌幅收窄,部分煤种小幅反弹 | | | | | | | | HE A F V FE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-03 现实预期博弈，盘⾯上涨乏⼒ 12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但⽬前钢材库存⽔平依旧同⽐偏⾼，需求⾯临转弱压⼒，钢材盘 ⾯上涨乏⼒。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但目前钢材库存水平依旧同比偏高，需求面临转弱压力，钢材盘 面上涨乏力。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强支撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑，补库需求暂未明显释放，前期价格回 升后进一步上行支撑不足，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢到货偏低， 价格下降后性价比回升，长、短流程钢企废钢需求均有支撑，下方空 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are accumulating, and global oil is slightly de - stocking. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, while the overhaul rate of Middle - East refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and potential OPEC production - increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern. In the fourth quarter, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 13 - 19, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $1.30, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.54. SC increased by 5.70, and OMAN decreased by 1.22. Other related prices such as those of refined products and differentials also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The Kremlin stated that it could arrange a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump if necessary. News of the decline in the signal of the Russia - Ukraine peace process led to a drop in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high, and production hit a two - and - a - half - year peak [3][4]. 3. Inventory - In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels, and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 702,000 barrels per day. UAE's Fujaidira Port's refined oil inventory increased by 3.204 million barrels in the week of November 12. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters in the week of November 08. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state where price suppression lacks safety - margins, but there is no clear upward driving force. Steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and prices are under pressure. Despite stronger cost support, the oversupply pattern persists [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal auction prices mostly declined. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and demand is marginally weakening. Coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again around mid - December [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and although there is strong macro - sentiment, the inventory pressure is high, and the price is difficult to break through the range. It is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the spot and futures prices remained stable, but the spot trading volume declined, and the market's initiative to chase up prices was weak. The next macro - observation period is after early December [2]. - There are contradictions in the industry: low static valuation of steel futures prices, lack of upward driving force, and unresolved concerns about long - term production cuts in steel mills. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - Investment strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading; consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the pressure on steel prices, steel mill profits have shrunk, iron - water production has decreased, and the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. - Although alloy factory profits are poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. The inventory of alloy factories and the number of warehouse receipts are accumulating. - Despite the strengthening of cost support due to the rise in coking coal and coke prices, the oversupply pattern continues, and prices will be under pressure. - Investment strategy: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated put options to protect their spot positions [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the domestic market sentiment has weakened. Most coking coal spot auctions have declined, and the port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price has decreased. - On the futures side, coking coal and coke prices dropped sharply at the opening, and after the end of speculation, they returned to the original downward trend. - The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and downstream demand is marginally weakening. High valuations are difficult to sustain. - In November, coal prices are under downward pressure and will be weak in a volatile manner. Considering the limited domestic coal production and low coal mine inventories, the decline is expected to be limited. Around mid - December, prices may rise again if there is a new round of restocking. - Investment strategy: Adopt a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [3]. Iron Ore - In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has weakened slightly, but subsequent shipments are not significantly affected, and inventory will continue to accumulate. - The increase in iron - water production is due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills and the end of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. However, steel mill profits are affecting production willingness, and port inventory will continue to rise. - Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [3]. Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On November 18, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3139.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 757.50 yuan/ton, 1795.00 yuan/ton, and 1232.00 yuan/ton respectively; for near - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3286.00 yuan/ton, 792.00 yuan/ton, 1649.50 yuan/ton, and 1159.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Changes**: The far - month contracts had price changes of 11.00 yuan/ton, 4.00 yuan/ton, 8.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 38.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.35%, 0.12%, 1.07%, - 2.55%, and - 2.99%. The near - month contracts had price changes of 14.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, 11.00 yuan/ton, - 48.50 yuan/ton, and - 46.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.21%, 1.41%, - 2.86%, and - 3.86% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: On November 18, the inter - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 were - 49.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 34.50 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On November 18, the coil - to - rebar spread was 196.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.90, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar's on - paper profit was - 99.30 yuan/ton, and the coking on - paper profit was 108.03 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billets, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3420.00 yuan/ton, 2970.00 yuan/ton, and 105.20 respectively [1]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM were - 16.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, 84.42 yuan/ton, and 251.00 yuan/ton respectively [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Weak [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The coking coal price has risen significantly, and the short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market needs to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] - The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. [3] - The log market is expected to have weak oscillation due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation due to the weakening of cost support and the poor demand. The oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation due to the concerns about supply and demand. The meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] - The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price due to the increase in demand and the slowdown in slaughter. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation due to the impact of weather on supply and the recovery of demand. [7] - The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. [9] Industry Summaries Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a record high in recent years, with a month-on-month increase of 12.298 million tons and an increase of 59%. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal price has risen significantly due to the overseas interest rate cut, the easing of Sino-US relations, and the exceeding of market expectations by the 14th Five-Year Plan. The short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. [2] - Rebar and coil: The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts of more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy. The steel market still has supply and demand contradictions and is mainly in oscillation adjustment. [2] - Glass: The cold repair of 4 production lines in Shahe is expected to be seen this week, with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons. The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Chinese government has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. [2][3] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The central bank has carried out 65.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds is 492.2 billion yuan. [3] - Gold and silver: The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. The silver market also has a high-level oscillation trend. [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased month-on-month, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import volume of logs shows a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure increases. The log market is expected to have weak oscillation. [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices weakens, and the demand is poor. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation. [5] - Double-adhesive paper: The supply pressure of double-adhesive paper still exists, and the market expectation is cautious. The double-adhesive paper market is expected to oscillate. [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil market has high inventory and increasing production, and the oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation. [5] - Meal: The Chinese government has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products, and the meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs has decreased slightly. The demand for large pigs has increased, and the price of large pigs has remained strong. The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price. [7] - Rubber: The supply of rubber raw materials is stable in Yunnan and affected by weather in Hainan. The demand for rubber has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation. [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PX price follows the oil price fluctuation. [9] - PTA: The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The cost support for PTA prices is weakened. [9] - MEG: The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. The short-term cost fluctuation is large. [9] - PR: The polyester bottle chip market may oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of effective driving factors. [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber market may have weak consolidation due to the overnight oil price decline and the lack of obvious positive factors. [9]