投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-03-11 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，盘⾯存在调整压⼒ 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若产销不能持续好转，则高库存始终 压制价格。纯碱供应短期高位稳定，整体供需仍旧过剩，预计短期以 震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格中枢仍将下行， 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值⾼位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存⽭盾仍存，铁矿⽯⾼库存压⼒难以缓解，蒙煤进⼝数 量⾼企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合⾦基本⾯⽀撑不⾜，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘⾯价格⾃⾼位有所回落。 地缘风险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值高位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存矛盾仍存，铁矿石高库存压力难以缓解，蒙煤进口数 量高企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合金基本面支撑不足，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘面价格自高位有所回落。 1. 铁元素方面：供应端发运恢复但仍存扰动预期，高库存压力短期 难以缓解，两会召开叠加地缘政治扰动较多，宏观仍存不确定性，近 期商品表现偏强，若宏观扰动弱化则铁矿基本面压力仍较大，铁矿预 计震荡偏弱。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international oil prices have shown a strong rebound due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil prices rising from $57.5 to $67.28 per barrel, marking a 17% increase, and ICE Brent crude prices rising from $60.86 to $72.12 per barrel, with an 18.5% increase [1][2] - Analysts suggest that once geopolitical disturbances subside, oil prices may revert to a downward trend due to an oversupply situation in the market [2][3] - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran are identified as a significant catalyst for the recent price surge, with a risk premium of $6 to $8 being factored into oil prices due to concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent price increases, the oil market is still characterized by an oversupply, with OPEC+ potentially resuming production increases of 137,000 barrels per day in April, which could lead to sustained ample supply [3] - Demand for refined oil is slowing down, indicating a phase of weak overall crude oil demand that may hinder strong price increases [3] - Long-term projections suggest that due to a generally loose supply in the global oil market, prices are unlikely to experience significant unilateral increases, even with short-term volatility driven by geopolitical events [3]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in soda ash futures, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1192.00 yuan, reflecting a 2.41% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soda ash futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract reported at 1189.00 yuan, marking a rise of 2.41% [1]. - The short-term outlook for soda ash is mixed, with different institutions providing varying assessments on market trends [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Galaxy Futures predicts a short-term strong fluctuation in soda ash prices, citing stable daily production above 110,000 tons and resilient demand despite some inventory accumulation during the holiday [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures suggests a bearish view, indicating that the market is facing long-term oversupply pressures, and recommends a cautious approach to any rebounds [3]. - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a weak short-term trend for soda ash, noting stable glass production but rising inventory levels, leading to a subdued market environment [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro environment turns cold and the energy and chemical sectors collectively decline, focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds [1][2] - In the case that the Iranian geopolitical risk does not continue to expand and based on the implementation of the US - Iran negotiations, maintain a short - selling strategy for crude oil and wait for entry signals after rebounds [2][4] - For the chemical sector, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds for methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, rubber, and PTA, which show the weakest technical structure and volume [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Commodity sentiment cools due to the nomination of an hawkish Fed chair, the US aims to keep oil prices low to control inflation, and there is progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to an oversupply situation, a cold macro environment, and cooling geopolitical tensions, causing crude oil to peak [3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It hit the daily limit down today, breaking the 464 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 485. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [4] Styrene - Logic: Weakening cost from crude oil, a cold macro environment, and a weakening micro - fundamental situation lead to a short - term peak. There is a strong expectation of increased supply due to high profits, and weak demand due to downstream losses and approaching holidays. Although short - term de - stocking supports prices, there is pressure from the resumption of maintenance devices [6][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction, breaking the 7535 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 7775. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [10] Pure Benzene - Logic: Its price increase is mainly driven by styrene's profit expansion and potential positive impacts from US - South Korea tariff adjustments. However, there is weak overseas demand and high import pressure. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction after the macro environment cooled [11] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction, breaking the 5930 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 6270. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [13] Rubber - Logic: High inventory in Qingdao, weakening tire demand due to a slowdown in the auto market, and strong supply increase expectation after the March tapping season. It lacks upward drivers and declined following the macro environment [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the daily - level trend. Pay attention to the short - term support at 16080. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [14] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Although the raw material butadiene is still strong, the macro environment cools and there is an expectation of a decline in crude oil prices, leading to a negative driving force [17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It showed signs of peaking with a long - negative - line decline at a high level but has not broken the short - term support at 12800. Wait and see for right - side entry on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: The medium - term supply - demand situation is strong before the new capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading early in December. There is negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and a decline in crude oil prices [21] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction but is still in the 7050 - 7500 range. Wait and see on the hourly level [21] PTA - Logic: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand in the off - season, with negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. There is negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and a decline in crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a large - position - reduction and large - volume long - negative - line decline, breaking the 5210 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 5295. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [24] PP - Logic: With cooling geopolitical tensions and a cold macro environment, olefins weakened. PP has weak seasonal demand and high supply pressure, with a negative medium - term driving force. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction at a high level [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with large position reduction but has not broken the short - term support at 6650. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [28] Methanol - Logic: Weak fundamentals due to low profit and expected decline in MTO device operation in the coastal area, high inventory, cooling geopolitical tensions, and a cold macro environment, leading to a negative short - term driving force [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the previous trend, breaking the 2285 support with increased positions, showing an obvious peak signal. The short - term resistance is at 2345. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Weak domestic fundamentals with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, high supply start - up rate, and negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. There is a negative short - term driving force due to a cold macro environment and cooling geopolitical tensions [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline that reversed the previous trend, breaking the 3825 support and turning the short - term structure bearish. The short - term resistance is at 3950. Wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: With cooling geopolitical tensions and a cold macro environment, olefins weakened. Plastic has weak seasonal demand and high supply pressure, with a negative medium - term driving force. It showed a peak signal with large position reduction at a high level [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It had a long - negative - line decline with position reduction but has not broken the short - term support at 6830. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36] Soda Ash - Logic: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory continue. Although there is a slight inventory reduction due to pre - holiday restocking, the far - month premium is expected to be gradually corrected downward. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It had a decline with large position reduction after reaching a high point. The breakthrough last Thursday afternoon is considered a false breakthrough. The short - term resistance is in the 1215 - 1225 range. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 1225 [40] PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, and the demand is weak with no expected reversal. However, the expected increase in industrial electricity prices provides short - term cost support [42] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high point and then declined. The short - term support is at 4860. Look for low - buying opportunities after the correction on the hourly cycle [44]

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "sideways" for the black building materials industry [6] Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between reality and expectation, with prices mainly moving sideways. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, coal mines are resuming production in January, and Mongolian coal imports have rebounded to a high level, so there is still high supply pressure, and the futures prices are expected to move sideways. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak. As steel mills gradually resume production, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, and fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have relatively high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [2]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the pressure of upstream inventory reduction is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity removal [3]. 5. Specific Varieties Analysis - Steel: The spot market trading is average. With the end of some steel mill overhauls, iron and steel production continues to increase. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. But with the resumption of steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will move in a wide sideways range [8]. - Iron ore: The spot price is moving sideways. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals have increased. The fundamentals on both the supply and demand sides still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [9]. - Coke: The cost side of coke has strong support, and the spot price has started to rise. The demand for coke is well - supported by the resumption of steel mills, and the inventory of steel mills is steadily increasing. The supply - demand structure is expected to tighten, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [12]. - Coking coal: The supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [12]. - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply and demand are in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly [13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. The futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level in the medium term [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

Market Overview - The PVC market in East China has seen price increases, with calcium carbide method prices ranging from 4380 to 4470 CNY/ton and ethylene method prices around 4450 to 4650 CNY/ton [1] - The PVC operating rate is at 78.4%, a decrease of 0.6%, ending a three-week increase, with ethylene facilities resuming operations and calcium carbide method facilities reducing output, equivalent to the shutdown of a 500,000-ton capacity [1] - Current inventory levels are transitioning to depletion, with social inventory statistics showing a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week to 1.0593 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 27.63% [1] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that the main contract is experiencing a strong continuation, with a resurgence of anti-involution sentiment and overall strength in domestic commodities. However, high inventory levels and weak demand during the seasonal off-peak period are creating supply-demand imbalances that are difficult to resolve before concentrated maintenance occurs in the upstream and midstream sectors [3] - The recent decline in chlor-alkali prices and cash flow losses in self-sufficient calcium carbide facilities in Northwest China are points of concern, with a strategy of holding light long positions in the short term and waiting for continued inventory depletion for potential buying opportunities in the medium to long term [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlights ongoing pressure from new capacity additions, with the market facing high operating rates, high inventory, and weak demand, limiting the rebound potential of futures prices. Despite recent policy support leading to a slight rebound in undervalued prices, the overall market remains in a low-level oscillation pattern [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Nickel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,070 yuan/ton and closed at 114,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 129,996 (+29,560) lots, and the open interest was 105,210 (+252) lots. The price trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the triple pressure of supply - demand surplus, high inventory, and technical breakdown [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, maintaining a price - holding attitude. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their pressure on nickel ore purchase prices might ease. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore was expected to decline [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 120,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 5,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,872 (+2,622) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,392 (+360) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2][3] Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,560 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,564 (+56,756) lots, and the open interest was 118,271 (-4,171) lots. The trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the pressure of supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and export policy disturbances. In the short term, there was unlikely to be an obvious rebound, and it was expected to oscillate and consolidate in the range of 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton [3] - The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with purchases mainly on an as - needed basis. Inventory reduction slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 265 - 465 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]