Group 1 - The report highlights that the previous leading indicators for bond pricing, particularly the reverse trading of rural commercial banks and the forward configuration of insurance in long-term bonds, may no longer be effective in the current market environment [5][6][14] - Rural commercial banks have shown a significant preference for increasing their holdings in 7-10 year government bonds, while their net buying of certificates of deposit has decreased [6][7] - The insurance sector has shifted its focus from long-term government bonds to local government bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy compared to previous years [14][15] Group 2 - The report discusses two quantitative trading strategies: mean-variance strategy aimed at maximizing expected returns under given risk levels, and threshold buy-sell strategy designed to identify high-value trading opportunities [18][22] - Evidence suggests that the effectiveness of leading indicators is declining, with rural commercial banks showing a reduced probability of bond yield increases following net buying actions in 2025 compared to previous years [18][24] - The report indicates that rural commercial banks have a relative advantage in timing their profit-taking actions, as their net selling after exceeding threshold levels correlates with lower probabilities of subsequent yield increases [24]