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黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-8-1)通胀升温引发金价回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 08:54
Group 1 - As of July 31, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, held 954.51 tons of gold, a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a continued decline in gold ETF holdings amid weak gold prices [2] - On July 31, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3,314.87 per ounce before closing at $3,288.70, up $13.78 or 0.42%, driven by a pullback in the US dollar and opportunistic buying after a previous drop [2] - Analysts suggest that when gold prices fall below $3,300, traders view it as a valuable investment opportunity, especially given the current economic uncertainties and renewed tariff threats from Trump [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETF demand for the second consecutive quarter, with inflows in China's gold ETFs reaching 464 billion yuan in Q2, marking the strongest quarterly performance on record [3] - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases in Q2, the World Gold Council believes geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to drive central banks to acquire gold [3] - Following the release of the latest US inflation data, gold prices experienced a decline, as the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may dampen Fed rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 50-day moving average, confirming a bearish crossover, indicating a continued short-term bearish sentiment [4] - If selling pressure persists, gold prices may target the 100-day moving average near $3,265, with further support at the June 30 low of $3,248 and the May 20 low of $3,205 [4] - For upward movement, gold prices need to break above the psychological level of $3,300 and reclaim resistance around the 21-day and 50-day moving averages near $3,340 [4]