周二(12月30日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格小幅反弹，目前交投于4361.46美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在日 内交易中上涨，试图收复此前部分跌幅，以缓解在指标开始释放积极信号之际相对强弱指标上明显的超 卖状态，这一修复意图更为明确。然而，此次改善仍处于持续负面压力之下。 尽管如此，进一步的盘整或暂时的抛售并不能排除，因为14日相对强弱指数(RSI)徘徊在中线附近。这 表明短期内的中性动能。 需要关注的直接阻力位是布林带的上边界4520美元。若果断突破该水平，可能会触发对歷史高点4550美 元的重新测试，并朝向4600美元的心理关口。 在新年假期前，交易量预计将保持低迷。交易者准备在周二稍晚发布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会 议纪要中寻找新的动力。 从技术面来看，黄金当天以积极的姿态交易。这种贵金属的建设性前景持续存在，因为价格保持在日线 图的关键100日指数移动平均线(EMA)之上，同时布林带扩大。 另一方面，黄金的初始支撑位出现在4305-4300美元区间，代表12月29日的低点和整数位。若后续卖盘 突破上述水平，将表明修正还有更多空间，可能会瞄准12月16日的低点4271美元。 据路透社周一报导，俄罗斯指 ...

受强劲的交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入推动，白银周五触及新的历史高位。 银价周五一度上涨3.9%，至每盎司59.33美元的历史新高。截止周四的四个交易日内，白银ETF的总增 持量已经超过7月以来任何完整一周的水平，尽管有迹象显示涨势可能已经过度，但这仍是投资者需求 的强烈信号。 受强劲的交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入推动，白银周五触及新的历史高位。 银价周五一度上涨3.9%，至每盎司59.33美元的历史新高。截止周四的四个交易日内，白银ETF的总增 持量已经超过7月以来任何完整一周的水平，尽管有迹象显示涨势可能已经过度，但这仍是投资者需求 的强烈信号。 Pepperstone Group Ltd．的研究策略师Dilin Wu表示："这些资金流动可以迅速放大价格波动，并触发短 期的逼空行情。"本周大部分时间里，白银的14天相对强弱指数在70这一水平上下来回波动，超过这一 门槛通常意味着交易员会认为超买。 Pepperstone Group Ltd．的研究策略师Dilin Wu表示："这些资金流动可以迅速放大价格波动，并触发短 期的逼空行情。"本周大部分时间里，白银的14天相对强弱指数在70这一水平上下来回波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) remains above the 0.6500 level following a trade surplus that exceeded expectations, despite a general decline in the USD and a recovery in risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 0.6440 acting as a significant support level, reinforced by the October low [1] - A potential downward trend could lead the AUD/USD to test the critical 200-day moving average support at 0.6445, with further declines possibly reaching the August low of 0.6414 and the June low of 0.6372 [1] - If bullish momentum returns, the October high at 0.6629 will be the immediate resistance, with potential upward movement towards 0.6707, followed by key levels at 0.6942 and 0.7000 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 45, indicating potential upward movement, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 16 suggests a sustained but weak trend [1] - The daily chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair is consolidating within a rectangular formation, showing sideways movement and remaining below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which indicates weak short-term momentum [1] Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - A successful breakout above the psychological level of 0.6500 could lead to testing the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6460, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414 recorded on August 21 [2] - Initial resistance is found at the nine-day EMA of 0.6520, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6539; breaking these levels would improve short- and medium-term price momentum [2] - Further upward movement would indicate a bullish trend, supporting the AUD/USD pair to approach the 13-month high of 0.6707 set on September 17 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices on October 21, which saw a decline of $230, is attributed to a complex interplay of factors rather than solely the rumors of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3][10]. Market Dynamics - The narrative linking the gold price drop to the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine war is seen as a superficial explanation, as discussions about a ceasefire had been ongoing prior to the price decline [3][5]. - The market's reaction to the ceasefire discussions was already priced in, indicating that the actual impact on prices was diminished by prior expectations [5][10]. Technical Analysis - The sudden and severe sell-off in gold aligns with technical breakdowns and liquidity issues, with automated trading triggering stop-loss orders after key support levels were breached [6][11]. - The gold market had experienced a parabolic rise, doubling in price over ten months, leading to an over-leveraged market that was vulnerable to any disturbances [8][10]. External Factors - A collective reduction in global risk sentiment contributed to the decline in gold prices, as key risk factors supporting gold's rise began to ease, including the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and improved U.S.-China trade relations [10][12]. - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar on October 21 was a critical factor, as it reflected market confidence in the U.S. economy and reduced the appeal of gold as a safe haven [10][11]. Future Outlook - Following the sharp decline, gold prices are expected to face continued downward pressure, with predictions suggesting a potential drop to the $2400-$2700 range if a substantial ceasefire occurs in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12][14]. - The next significant support level for gold is identified around $3500, which represents a 50% retracement from its previous rise, indicating a potential stabilization point [12][14]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid impulsive buying during the current downtrend, as the market is still in a search for a bottom, and premature entry could lead to further losses [15][18]. - Proper position management is emphasized, with recommendations for gold holdings in personal portfolios to be limited to 5%-10% to mitigate risk from price volatility [15][17].

Market Performance - The A-share market saw declines with the Shenzhen Composite Index dropping 2.54% to close at 12,895 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3,865 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.57 trillion RMB [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a downturn, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441 points, down 1.73%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling over 3.7% to 5,923 points, with trading volume nearing 400 billion HKD [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks were notably weak, with SMIC (00981.HK) declining by 8.5%. Pharmaceutical stocks also faced significant losses, with CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093.HK) down over 7%, and China Biologic Products (01177.HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692.HK) falling by 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively [3] - Technology stocks were heavily impacted, with Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) dropping nearly 6.8%, Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) down 5.4%, and Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) falling 4.3%. Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) also saw a decline of over 2.8%, reaching a new low in at least a month [3] Investment Trends - There was a shift in investor sentiment towards income-generating stocks, with China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) rising nearly 4.7%, marking it as the best-performing constituent stock. The four major state-owned banks saw increases ranging from 0.9% to 2.3% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence in the Eurozone's economic performance, with services outperforming manufacturing, leading to a mixed economic outlook [1] - The Eurozone's September PMI preliminary value shows a significant split, with services rising to 51.4, surpassing the expected 50.5, while manufacturing fell to 49.5 from 50.7, indicating contraction [1] - Germany's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, below the neutral line, while services rebounded to 52.5, reflecting strong domestic demand [1] - France's economic indicators show weakness, with manufacturing PMI declining to 48.1 and services dropping to 48.9, suggesting greater economic pressure [1] - Overall, the Eurozone economy remains on the edge of moderate expansion, with service sector performance offsetting ongoing manufacturing weakness, alleviating some concerns about a deep recession [1] Group 2 - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing above the simple moving average (SMA) support at around 1.1730, indicating a mild bullish trend [2] - The 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are rising steadily below the short-term averages, aligning with limited demand for the USD [2] - Short-term momentum indicators show a neutral overall trend, with the relative strength index (RSI) slightly retreating to around 53 [2] - The Euro to USD is trading above all moving averages, with the 20-period simple moving average providing intraday support at approximately 1.1770 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced significant volatility, primarily due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and political uncertainty in the UK, leading to a notable decline against the US dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of September 4, the GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.3434, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.04% from the previous close of 1.3440 [1] - The pound fell sharply by 1.15% on September 2, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly two months [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The UK government's borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since 1998, indicating strong market concerns regarding fiscal stability [1] - Prime Minister Starmer's urgent reshuffle of the senior economic advisory team has raised investor doubts about the continuity and stability of economic policies, further undermining market confidence [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - A widespread sell-off in major global bond markets has led to a significant increase in UK bond yields, intensifying downward pressure on the pound [1] - The daily chart for GBP/USD indicates a double top reversal pattern, with key moving averages suggesting potential for further upward movement, although caution is advised due to the current market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.16, with a drop of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1706 [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks indicated that the ECB has entered a new phase of monetary policy, shifting focus from active economic intervention to continuous monitoring of economic dynamics [1] - Kazaks noted that the current inflation rate is close to the 2% target, and recent economic data does not show significant deviation from the June quarterly forecast, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar has shown limited progress, with the weekly chart indicating that buyers are looking for entry points on dips [2] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at 1.1520, providing support for buying, despite losing upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators have shown a shift but remain in positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, indicating no clear directional guidance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that persistent inflation in the UK reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England within the year, with market expectations for the first 25 basis point cut now pushed to March 2026 [1] - Recent data shows that the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK is expected to reach 4% in September, which aligns with previous forecasts and has led to minimal market reaction [1] - The market's shift in expectations regarding interest rate cuts suggests that discussions around potential cuts will likely be more relevant in 2026 rather than 2025, as indicated by the flattening of the SONIA futures curve [1] Group 2 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently oscillating between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a significant contraction in market volatility and a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [2] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 11 low of 1.3400, which is crucial as it coincides with the lower boundary of the current consolidation range; a break below this level could intensify downward pressure [2] - On the upside, the July 1 high near 1.3790 serves as a critical resistance level, and a breakout above this point could open up greater upward potential for the currency pair [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]