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量化择时周报:短期关注红利应对假期不确定性-20250928
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-28 13:14
Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is in an upward trend, with the key observation variable being whether the market's profit effect can be sustained. As long as the profit effect remains positive, incremental funds are expected to continue entering the market [2][10][14] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6184 points, with a profit effect of approximately 0.66%, still positive. It is advised to hold positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The industry allocation model suggests that the precious metals sector is still in an upward trend and should be monitored. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven initiatives, such as new energy and chemicals, are expected to perform well [2][10][14] Market Overview - The market is currently showing a profit effect of about 0.66%, indicating a positive environment for investment. The report suggests maintaining positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The valuation indicators for the WIND All A index show a PE at the 85th percentile and a PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [2][10][14] - The report recommends an 80% allocation to absolute return products based on the current market conditions and trends [2][10][14] Industry Focus - The report highlights the precious metals sector as a continuing upward trend, which should be closely monitored [2][10][14] - The technology sector, particularly chips and robotics, is recommended for continued focus based on the TWO BETA model [2][10][14] - Given the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming National Day holiday, there is a specific emphasis on focusing on dividend-paying sectors as a defensive strategy [2][10][14]