Market Pricing Status: Trading Activity Slightly Decreased, Profitability Increased - The trading turnover rate has decreased, with the average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market dropping to 2.1 trillion yuan, and the average number of daily limit-up stocks decreasing to 60.8 [8][12] - The proportion of stocks that increased in value rose to 47.6%, while the median weekly return for A-share stocks increased to -0.1% [12][15] - The trading concentration in both primary and secondary industries has declined, with six industries having turnover rates in the historical top 90% [12][19] A-Share Liquidity Tracking: Foreign Capital Slightly Inflows, ETF Capital Slightly Outflows - Foreign capital inflow amounted to approximately 3.67 million USD, with the northbound trading volume accounting for 34.6% of total trading [29][46] - The new issuance scale of equity funds increased to 43.63 billion yuan, indicating a rise in overall stock positions of public funds [29][31] - ETF funds experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, with the proportion of passive trading decreasing to 6.6% [29][25] A-Share Industry Allocation Tracking: Divergence in Movements of Foreign Capital, ETF Capital, and Financing Capital - Foreign capital saw net inflows in the non-ferrous metals (+39.1 million USD) and banking (+21.4 million USD) sectors [29][43] - Financing capital showed net inflows in the media (+2.88 billion yuan) and environmental protection (+0.24 billion yuan) sectors, while there were significant outflows in power equipment (-6.5 billion yuan) and non-bank financials (-4.56 billion yuan) [29][19] - The ETF sector experienced widespread outflows, particularly in electronics (-11.47 billion yuan) and power equipment (-4.94 billion yuan) [29][19] Hong Kong Stock and Global Liquidity Tracking: Slowing Inflows from Southbound Funds, Marginal Inflows of Global Foreign Capital into Developed Markets - Southbound fund inflows decreased to 27.8 billion yuan, representing the 76th percentile since 2022 [29][4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.6%, while global markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea leading with a 5.5% increase [29][4] - Global foreign capital saw marginal inflows into developed markets, particularly in the US (+8.13 billion USD), Japan (+3.9 billion USD), and the UK (+2.11 billion USD) [29][4]

春节假期余温未散，A股市场即将迎来马年首个交易日。公开数据显示，仅在马年首个交易日2月24日当天，就有18只新基金（份额合并计算，下同）齐 发，首周更是多达35只新品密集亮相。若从年初以来的情况看，2026年前两个月公募基金新发数量则达到245只，规模更已接近2100亿元，双双创下近四年 同期新高。在业内人士看来，2026年市场开局稳中有升，为马年行情创造了有利条件。同时，居民储蓄通过买基金入市向资本市场大转移的速度正在加 快，有望为市场带来更多增量资金。对于马年市场的整体表现，业内人士同样保持乐观预期。 首个交易日18只新基齐发 赚钱效应延续是关键 除新发数量有所增长外，2026年开年至今的新发规模更同比增长迅速。以基金成立日来看，截至2月23日，2026年基金新发规模已达2094亿元，较2025年同 期的1062.92亿元同比增长97%。再向前追溯，2023年和2024年同期的新发规模分别为1018.74亿元、874.83亿元。换句话说，2026年开年新发规模已创下近 四年同期新高。 在发行数量与规模双双走高的背景下，郭施亮向北京商报记者表示："2025年市场行情表现亮眼，2026年市场开局稳中有升，为马 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 2026年的1月，本应是银行理财惯例中的"开门红"旺季，却意外遭遇了一场"倒春寒"。 全市场理财规模缩水逾千亿，头部大行理财子更是成为了缩量的重灾区。与此同时，公募基金却在权益市场的回暖中异军突起，月度发行份额创近三年新 高，开户数更是翻倍。 "一冷一热"背后，并非简单的季节性波动，还有居民财富在"降息周期"与"赚钱效应"博弈下的自发迁移。数据显示，今年1月，公募基金业绩表现优异，35 只基金月度收益超过30%，还有3只基金涨幅超过50%。 这种极端的业绩表现，不断通过社交媒体发酵。而银行理财长期以来宣传的"低波动、小确幸"，在权益基金单月50%的暴利面前，显得有些苍白无力。 按照往年惯例，1月通常是银行理财的"开门红"时点，然而今年1月的数据却给市场泼了一盆冷水。 据华西证券数据，全市场银行理财规模在1月内缩量1142 亿元，并未如市场预期那样回升。其中月末周（26-30日），在回表的驱动下，理财规模再度承 压，环比降1788亿元至33.18万亿元。 市场呈现出鲜明结构性特征。过去两年狂飙突进的头部理财子公司，在今年首月反而成为了缩量的重灾区。 据证券时报及相关渠道 ...

2月3日，上交所最新披露2026年1月A股新开户数据，数据显示，2026年首月投资者新开A股账户达492万户。 如何看待492万的新开户数？ 值得对比的是，与2015年牛市期间的高开户数相比，当前市场具有明显不同：一是估值水平更低，当前上证指数市盈率约17倍，远低于 2015年高点的30倍以上；二是资金结构更健康，当前中长期资金占比更高，而2015年以杠杆资金、散户资金为主；三是政策导向更稳健， 当前监管层强调稳字当头，避免市场大起大落，这些差异有望支撑市场走出慢牛行情。 总体来看，2026年首月A股市场交出了一份亮眼的成绩单，492万户的新开账户数为市场注入了新活力。尽管短期市场面临一定的调整压 力，但在政策、资金、经济基本面等多重利好因素的支撑下，A股中长期上行趋势明确。随着春节后各项利好因素的逐步落地，市场有望迎 来新一轮的上涨行情，为投资者带来更多投资机会。 A股新开户数因何创新高？ 2026年1月A股市场实现开门红，三大核心指数全线收涨且量能创历史新高，叠加政策与资金双重利好，市场赚钱效应吸引。月末受节前资 金避险、获利盘出逃等因素影响，主要指数迎来回调，市场情绪有所降温，但新增资金入场的整体趋势未 ...

Market Pricing Status - The market transaction activity has slightly increased, but the profit effect has decreased. The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market rose to 3.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks that increased in value dropped to 23.6% [6][8][15] - The median weekly return for all A-shares decreased to -3.4%, indicating a decline in profitability [6][8][15] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - Financing funds have seen a slight inflow, while ETF funds experienced a significant outflow. The new issuance scale of equity funds decreased to 35.09 billion yuan, and the overall stock position of public funds has declined [6][20][29] - Private equity confidence index increased by 0.5% compared to December, but the positions have marginally decreased [6][20][41] - Foreign capital inflow into A-shares was 4.13 million USD, with the northbound capital transaction proportion dropping to 0.1% [6][20][42][44] - The IPO fundraising was 5.55 billion yuan, and the scale of private placements was 4.55 billion yuan [6][20] - ETF funds saw a massive outflow of 319.37 billion yuan, with the passive trading proportion decreasing to 9.1% [6][20][28] A-Share Industry Allocation - Financing and ETF funds have both seen outflows from the electronics sector. In terms of foreign capital, net inflows were highest in non-ferrous metals (+119.5 million USD) and automobiles (+38.1 million USD), while transportation (-1.3 million USD) and public utilities (-1.1 million USD) saw net outflows [6][20][3.1] - Financing funds showed net inflows in non-ferrous metals (+13.45 billion yuan) and basic chemicals (+2.05 billion yuan), while defense and electronics sectors experienced net outflows of 2.82 billion yuan and 5.95 billion yuan, respectively [6][20][3.3] - The top sectors for net inflows in the ETF market included non-ferrous metals and chemical ETFs, while electronics, non-bank financials, and banks saw significant outflows [6][20][3.2] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - Southbound capital inflow has slowed down, while global foreign capital has marginally flowed into the US and Asian markets. The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.4% during this period [6][20][4.1] - The net buying amount of southbound capital decreased to 2.71 billion yuan, which is at the 15% percentile since 2022 [6][20][4.2] - In the global context, foreign capital inflows were highest in the US (+6.27 billion USD), South Korea (+2.83 billion USD), and China (+2.64 billion USD) [6][20][4.3]

证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在延 续，主题投资重回主线》2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 报告摘要 趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 上周周报（20260125）认为：尽管 ETF 份额的持续下降，对市场有短线压力，但在 每日近 3 万亿金额的成交下，预计影响也较为有限，市场上行趋势仍将延续。最终 WIND 全 A 在 ETF 份额持续下降的影响和周五周期股大幅回调的影响下，全周下跌 1.59%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 下跌 2.55%，中盘股中证 500 指数下跌 2.56 ...

Market Overview - Market trading activity has decreased, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 2.8 trillion CNY, while the proportion of stocks rising has increased to 76.7%[4] - The median weekly return for all A-shares has risen to 2.7%[4] Fund Flows - Financing funds have seen a slight outflow of 68.9 billion CNY, with the proportion of financing transactions decreasing to 9.8%[4] - ETF funds have experienced a significant outflow of 3264.7 billion CNY, primarily due to state-owned enterprises selling ETFs to optimize their capital structure[4] - New issuance of equity mutual funds has increased to 261.2 billion CNY, indicating a rise in public fund activity[4] Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has flowed into A-shares, with a net inflow of 3.9 million USD as of January 21[4] - The proportion of northbound trading has increased to 18.0%, indicating stronger foreign participation in the market[4] Sector Performance - The top sectors for foreign inflows include non-ferrous metals (+27.3 million USD) and computers (+12.8 million USD), while banks (-35.1 million USD) and telecommunications (-20.8 million USD) saw outflows[4] - In terms of financing, electronics (+206.5 billion CNY) and telecommunications (+95.2 billion CNY) were the leading sectors for inflows, while beauty care (-0.2 billion CNY) and construction materials (-0.5 billion CNY) faced outflows[4] Risk Factors - There are potential risks related to data reporting discrepancies and measurement errors from third-party sources[4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index - Calculate the difference between the two moving averages - If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend - Latest data: 20-day moving average = 6668, 120-day moving average = 6245, difference = 6.78%[2][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward trend and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][7] 2. **Model Name**: Industry Trend Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends[6][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Use medium-term reversal expectation signals to identify industries with potential recovery, such as innovative healthcare - Apply the TWO BETA model to recommend sectors like technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, and stablecoin concepts - Use performance trend signals to highlight opportunities in semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into sector allocation, focusing on industries with strong growth potential or recovery signals[6][7] 3. **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and market trends[8] **Model Construction Process**: - Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB ratios - Combine valuation levels with short-term trend signals to recommend an equity allocation - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index[8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing equity exposure, balancing valuation and trend considerations[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Timing System Model**: - Moving average distance: 6.78% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][7] - Profitability effect: 2.7% (positive, supporting the upward trend)[2][7] 2. **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - Recommended sectors: Innovative healthcare, technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, stablecoin concepts, semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] 3. **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. The analysis primarily focuses on models rather than individual factors. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were provided in the report. The focus remains on model-level performance and recommendations.

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the bull market for gold and silver continues, with gold prices rising significantly and potentially breaking the $5000 mark soon [1][6][10] - On January 22, gold CFD started at a low of $4772 and reached a high of $4960, while on January 23, it continued to rise, hitting $4967 [1][6] - Silver CFD also showed a similar upward trend, starting at $90.79 and reaching $96.95 on January 22, with a peak of $99.20 on January 23 [1][6] Group 2 - The increase in gold and silver prices is primarily attributed to the decline of the US dollar index, influenced by geopolitical tensions regarding Greenland [1][7] - The announcement by US President Trump regarding Greenland has led to concerns in Europe, prompting a sell-off of dollar assets as a form of risk aversion [2][7] - The strong bullish trend in precious metals is expected to attract more external capital once gold surpasses $5000 and silver exceeds $100 [1][6][10] Group 3 - The current market conditions suggest that gold is operating within a blue channel, with the potential to reach $5000, as previous resistance levels have not significantly hindered price movements [5][10] - Silver's volatility is higher than that of gold, offering greater profit potential but also higher risk during market corrections [5][10] - Day traders may find silver more suitable for trading, while longer-term investors might prefer gold for stability [5][10]