- The report introduces a timing system that uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a distance of 3.38%, which is significantly greater than 3%, indicating the market has returned to an upward trend[2][6][11] - The "profitability effect" is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current market trend line is at 6237 points, and the profitability effect is 3.12%, which is significantly positive, suggesting the upward trend is likely to continue[5][7][11] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals a focus on retail, tourism, and other service-oriented consumption sectors[5][7][11] - The "TWO BETA Model" continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and commercial aerospace[5][7][11] - The "Industry Trend Model" indicates that sectors such as communication, industrial metals, and energy storage are maintaining an upward trend[5][7][11] - The valuation metrics for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[5][7][11] - Based on the "Position Management Model," the report suggests an 80% equity allocation for absolute return products using the WIND All A Index as the primary stock allocation benchmark[5][7][11]

李迅雷金融与投资 引言 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能 源、2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是 散户资金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"， 右侧追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股 票+基金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应 下，居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 第一，新增开户数量提升速度不及以前。2025年11月新增开户数为238 ...

同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"，右侧 追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股票+基 金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应下， 居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 （转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引言 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能源、 2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是散户资 金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 考虑924行情中开户数量飙升 ...

策 略 研 究 融资资金流入加速，外资重回流入 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·12 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所抬升，赚钱效应边际下降。从资金层面看，偏股公募基金新 发行边际回落，融资资金流入加速，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： 资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 2025.12.15 成交活跃度升高，创业板指估值领涨 2025.12.13 资产概览：商品/权益上涨，中债熊陡 2025.12.09 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强 2025.12.09 融资资金延续流入，ETF 平稳回流 2025.12.08 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 观 察 证 | | | | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares, driven by global capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Historical bubbles require three key conditions: a low interest rate environment, a market with profit-making effects, and a lack of investment opportunities in major global markets [1] - The example of the 2006-2007 A-share market surge illustrates how external factors, such as the collapse of the US real estate market, can create favorable conditions for domestic markets to thrive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The most unfavorable phase for institutions is about to pass, with a shift in market dynamics expected as December approaches, leading to a stronger correlation between market movements and fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Timing and Trends - The period from December to January is identified as an excellent time for positioning in the market, particularly for sectors with favorable annual report forecasts [1] - The "spring market excitement" window, lasting approximately 20 trading days, is anticipated between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, characterized by a shift from low to high win rates and a transition from large-cap to small-cap styles [1] Group 2: Market Adjustments - Many sectors have already experienced an average adjustment of around 20%, aligning with historical averages for mainline varieties, suggesting that December is a suitable time to start monitoring these sectors [1]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is weak, leading to low trading volumes and a lack of confidence among investors [3] - There is a perception that the current market position lacks value, and there are no sustainable leading sectors at the moment [3] Market Trends - The market has experienced three consecutive days of gains followed by declines, which has significantly hurt investor sentiment [2] - The trading volume has been shrinking, with a peak trading volume of 3.2 trillion, and a current volume of approximately 1.73 trillion, indicating a potential emotional low point [3] Economic Indicators - Recent declines in the market were attributed to high positioning, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and liquidity issues in the U.S. and global markets [2] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has returned, as evidenced by the strength in precious metals like gold and silver, and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan [2] Technical Analysis - The market is currently facing resistance at key trend lines, with a combination of minute-level and 15-minute level structures indicating a potential top [6] - The absence of a significant left-side signal at the bottom suggests that the current rebound is not a reversal but merely a temporary reaction [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed weakness today, influenced by a drop of over 2% in the Nasdaq, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, down 0.97% [1] - The market experienced a mixed performance this week, with multiple attempts to break the 4000-point mark, reflecting underlying participant divergence despite initial optimism [1] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion, indicating a lack of active trading [1] Group 2 - The market has been searching for new leading narratives since the CPO sector, with sectors like new energy and battery showing temporary strength but lacking sustainability [2] - Economic indicators such as social financing are showing mediocre performance, indicating a lag in the recovery of confidence in the real economy [2] - The pressure from profit-taking in certain sectors, where some stocks have seen gains exceeding 50%, poses a risk to the continuation of the current market trend [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and consider a strategy of high selling and low buying, focusing on a "core position + satellite rotation" approach [3] - Recommended core ETFs include the CSI A500 ETF and the CSI 300 Enhanced ETF, while satellite opportunities may arise in sectors that have underperformed during the recent adjustments [3] - The Hong Kong and US markets showed weaker performance compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indices closing below water, reflecting higher sensitivity to US dollar liquidity [3]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment has been poor since September, with limited profit opportunities except for a few individual stocks [1] - Retail investors often struggle with recognizing the diminishing profit effects and confuse short-term fluctuations with long-term trends [1] - The performance of different market segments varies significantly, with some experiencing substantial gains while others face corrections [2][3] Group 2 - The transition between leading sectors is often painful, as seen in the shift from the robotics sector to the blockchain computing sector, which experienced significant volatility [3] - Certain stocks have seen over 30 times increases from their cyclical lows, indicating potential bubbles, as such valuations are rare even in bull markets [3] - The concept of a "slow bull market" is misunderstood; it involves periods of stagnation and corrections rather than continuous upward movement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points for the first time in 10 years, indicating a gradual increase in market enthusiasm, despite concerns about potential market peaks and the lack of strong profit-making effects for investors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced declines [2]. - The index has risen from a low of 3100 points this year, reflecting a warming market sentiment [2]. Market Sentiment - Unlike previous instances when the index reached 4000 points, there is less media excitement and public discussion this time, attributed to a slower pace of retail investors moving their deposits [3][4]. - The lack of strong profit-making effects is a significant factor, as many investors have not seen corresponding increases in their account balances despite the index's rise [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The recent index highs are believed to be driven by government intervention rather than new capital inflows, leading to a situation where market dynamics are characterized by existing funds competing against each other [5][6]. - The focus of large funds is on stocks that significantly contribute to the index, resulting in a lack of broad market participation and profit-making opportunities for smaller stocks [6][7]. Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that after reaching 4000 points, the index has previously moved towards 5000 points, supported by government policies favoring the capital market [6][7]. - The current monetary environment, both domestically and internationally, is conducive to further index growth, with expectations of increased capital flow into previously undervalued stocks as the market stabilizes [7][8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to identify undervalued sectors and stocks that may attract large funds as the index approaches 5000 points, as this could present significant profit opportunities [7][9]. - The upcoming months are seen as a transitional phase, where patience and strategic positioning in the market will be crucial for maximizing returns [7][8].