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花旗:中国AI大战将在2026年“全面加剧”,“流量入口”成大厂“必争之地”,AI出海也将加速
美股IPO· 2025-12-02 08:02
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet sector is expected to lead global returns with a remarkable 36.5% growth in 2025, but the real competition will unfold in 2026 around artificial intelligence (AI) [1][3] Group 1: AI Competition Themes - The competition in China's AI sector in 2026 will focus on three main themes: AI cloud infrastructure, AI chatbots, and AI applications [5] - Major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are vying for user traffic through their AI chatbots, aiming to secure key entry points for future ecosystem commercialization [3][5] Group 2: AI Cloud Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba and Baidu are leading a capital race in AI cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching approximately 120 billion RMB over the past four quarters and plans to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years [6] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Baidu's AI cloud revenue also saw a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 6.2 billion RMB [6] Group 3: AI Chatbot User Acquisition - AI chatbots are defined as the "traffic entry point" of the AI era, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent heavily investing in user acquisition [9] - ByteDance's chatbot "Doubao" leads the Chinese market with 197 million monthly active users (MAU) as of October 2025 [9] Group 4: Vertical AI Applications - Companies in vertical sectors like Meituan, Ctrip, and Didi are training proprietary AI agents using their exclusive data to enhance user engagement and explore new monetization opportunities [13] - Ctrip's AI travel assistant "TripGenie" saw its user base grow by over 200% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [13] Group 5: Global Expansion of AI Applications - Chinese AI applications are accelerating their global expansion, with ByteDance's products ranking fourth and fifth globally in MAU [15] - Combining Doubao's 197 million MAU in China with Dola's 47 million overseas users results in a total of approximately 250 million MAU, placing ByteDance's AI chat products third globally [15] Group 6: Performance Review and Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, 27 out of 44 internet companies exceeded profit expectations, attributed to cost optimization and productivity gains from AI [18] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the average revenue per user (ARPU) rebounding to 41 RMB, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [18] - The tourism sector shows resilience, with tourism spending as a percentage of GDP at 4.3% in 2024, indicating further growth potential [19]