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财税观察丨置换债券发行超八成 楼市去库存间接助化债
证券时报· 2025-06-12 02:57
Core Viewpoint - Local government debt risks have been effectively alleviated, benefiting from special bonds for land reserves amid the "de-inventory" context in the real estate market [1][5]. Debt Replacement Policy Effectiveness - The Ministry of Finance increased the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan last year, with over 3.6 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued in the past seven months, including more than 1.6 trillion yuan this year [3]. - Over 170 regions have announced achieving "full clearance of hidden debts," with some areas reducing high-interest debts to lower rates [3]. - The average cost of financing platform debts in Chongqing has decreased by 71 basis points since the debt replacement initiatives began [3]. Accelerated Exit from Government Financing Platforms - The replacement policy has led to a significant acceleration in the exit of investment companies from government financing platforms, with 4,680 platforms reduced last year [4]. - In the first five months of this year, 72 investment companies have announced their exit from these platforms [4]. Special Bonds for Land Reserves - The introduction of special bonds for land reserves has helped alleviate debt pressure and improve cash flow for local governments [6]. - As of the end of May, over 120 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves have been issued, although actual issuance may differ from publicized figures [6]. - The special bonds are expected to play a crucial role in revitalizing the land market and addressing mismatches in land investment and cash recovery [6][7]. Continuous Optimization of Debt Relief Measures - The issuance of replacement bonds has slowed since May, but there is an expectation for an increase in the issuance of special bonds in the second half of the year [9]. - There remains a need for ongoing efforts to clear government debts and manage existing government and social capital cooperation projects [9]. - Recommendations include optimizing debt relief policies with a focus on differentiated strategies at the municipal and county levels [9].