从预算执行报告及政府工作报 告看地方化债情况—以四川省 为例 联合资信 公用评级三部 | 马 颖 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、全省化债进度估算 借力中央特别化债政策及地方自行化债，2025 年四川省隐性债务化解进度超序 时进度，2025 年底四川省隐债化解进度不低于 65%。 二、四川省 2026 年化债重点 随着化债工作取得一定成效，2026 年四川省政府"财政化债"规模或有所下降， 化债重心转向经营性债务风险化解。 2025 年，四川省政府通过发行债券化解隐债的规模较 2024 年有所下降，财政化 债的重点工作从侧重隐债置换转向隐债置换与清理拖欠并存。随着化债工作取得一定 成效，化债需求相对下降，2026 年四川省政府通过发行债券化解隐债规模或将下降。 隐性债务风险逐渐收敛后，城投公司市场化经营过程中形成的经营性债务风险的 防范和化解将成为下一阶段地方债务化解的重点。2025 年中央经济工作会议提出 "2026 年要优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务 风险"，这是中央首次将地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险纳入重点化解范围。与中 www.lhratings ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 美元债双周报（26 年第 9 周） 弱于大市 美以联合袭击伊朗，避险情绪驱动美债利率下行 美国全球关税新框架生效，税率上调与不确定性再起。2 月 24 日，美国根 据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条款对进口商品实施的新一轮 10%"全球关 税"正式生效。白宫方面称正在研究将关税提高至 15%的可能性，但具 体实施时间表尚未敲定。在此背景下，欧盟、印度等贸易伙伴对关税不 确定性表达关切，并一度暂停部分谈判进程。尽管特朗普政府未明确宣 布最终税率与适用对象，但税率上调预期已引发全球供应链及价格预期 波动，并给企业投资与跨境贸易决策带来压力。 美以联合攻击伊朗，市场短期避险情绪升温，美债利率回落。美国与以色 列于 2026 年 2 月 28 日发动代号"咆哮雄狮/史诗之怒"的联合军事行 动，对伊朗境内包括德黑兰在内的多处战略目标实施空袭，旨在打击其 核计划、军事设施及高层领导结构。袭击期间，轰炸覆盖德黑兰等多地， 据以方称伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在空袭中遇害，其遗体及部分近亲遇难 均由伊朗官方媒体确认，伊朗政府随后宣布全国哀悼 40 天。在冲突爆 发后，市场避险情绪升温，资 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 annual index for Henan urban investment companies has been officially released, showing a stable development power index for these companies [1][5] - The index reflects the ongoing efforts in debt resolution and structural transformation within Henan province [5] Group 1: Development Power Index Rankings - The top three companies in the 2025 development power index are Henan Water Investment Group (78.31), Henan Transportation Investment Group (76.47), and Henan Railway Construction Investment Group (76.19) [3][2] - Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment Group has made its first appearance in the top ten of the rankings [2][5] Group 2: Changes in Development Power - The average development power index for Henan urban investment companies in 2025 is 54.50, remaining stable compared to 2024 [5] - The provincial-level urban investment companies saw an increase of 0.92 points in their average index, while the city-level companies decreased by 2.08 points, and the county-level companies increased by 0.69 points [6] Group 3: Specific Company Developments - Henan Water Investment Group is recognized for its sustainable development capabilities, with significant projects like the Jia Ru River comprehensive management project (total investment of 7.244 billion) and the South-to-North Water Diversion project (total investment of 6.461 billion) [6][7] - Zhengzhou Industrial Investment Group has increased its registered capital from 1 billion to 30 billion RMB and plans to invest in various emerging industries [7] - Zhengzhou Aviation Port Science and Technology Group is actively involved in capital operations and has established funds for low-altitude economy and advanced computing [7] Group 4: Regional Performance - The development power index varies across different provincial cities, with cities like Anyang, Nanyang, and Jiaozuo showing improvements compared to the 2024 rankings [8] - Specific average development power indices for cities include Zhengzhou (58.09), Luoyang (48.23), and Nanyang (57.63), indicating mixed performance across the region [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "exit platform" for urban investment companies is not the end but rather the first step in accelerating reform and transformation [2] Group 1: Urban Investment Companies' Challenges - Traditional urban investment models have made significant contributions but have also led to a crossroads due to extensive development [2] - The "exit platform" is an inevitable outcome, indicating a shift in operational strategy [2] - Post "exit platform," urban investment companies face immense survival pressure and numerous challenges, including heavy burdens, difficulties in resolving historical issues, and challenges in asset revitalization [2] Group 2: Financial Pressures - Urban investment companies are grappling with high operational debts, which exacerbate their financial strain [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Construction Group (SH600170) experienced a trading halt on January 28, 2026, with a closing price of 3.18 yuan, reflecting a 10.03% increase and a total market capitalization of 28.257 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's urban construction investment business reported a year-on-year growth of 1883.33%, indicating significant breakthroughs in the new infrastructure sector [2] - The real estate development business also showed a counter-cyclical growth rate of 17.96%, outperforming the industry average [2] - The third quarter saw a non-recurring net profit increase of 134.91%, demonstrating improved operational efficiency [2] Group 2: Financing and Market Conditions - The company successfully completed a financing round of 2 billion yuan at a low interest rate of 2.90%, which was fully subscribed, indicating high market recognition and reduced financial costs [2] - There are 18 major engineering projects in the pipeline, each exceeding 1 billion yuan, totaling 26.38 billion yuan, ensuring future revenue streams [2] - The construction and real estate sectors have recently seen increased activity due to macroeconomic policies and market expectations, contributing to a positive market environment [2] Group 3: Technical Indicators - Technical analysis suggests potential positive signals, such as the MACD indicator possibly forming a golden cross and the BOLL channel potentially breaking through, attracting more investor interest [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hohhot Energy Investment Development (Group) Co., Ltd. has undergone a business change, with Hohhot Urban Construction Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. exiting the shareholder list and the registered capital increasing from 100 million to approximately 20.8 billion [1] Group 2 - The registered capital increase signifies a substantial growth in the company's financial capacity, which may indicate future expansion or investment opportunities [1] - The exit of Hohhot Urban Construction Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. as a shareholder could suggest a strategic shift in the company's ownership structure [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint of the Report In 2025, the number of new debt - resolution policies has significantly slowed down, with the focus shifting to policy implementation to consolidate debt - resolution achievements. In the first half of 2025, the debt scale of urban investment companies continued to grow but at a slower pace, the debt term structure improved, and the financing structure was optimized. However, some urban investment companies still faced relatively large liquidity pressures, and regional differentiation was further evident. Looking forward, urban investment companies still face the pressure to deepen market - oriented transformation to achieve a new dynamic balance between serving regional economic development and consolidating debt stability [2][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Environment Change - Since 2023, a series of debt - resolution policies have been introduced, with 2023 and 2024 seeing relatively frequent policy releases. In 2025, the focus shifted to implementation and consolidation of achievements. The core of these policies is to resolve existing debts, control new debts, promote the exit and transformation of financing platforms, and seek development [4]. - As of August 31, 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special bond quotas had been issued, reducing the average interest cost by over 2.5 percentage points and saving over 450 billion yuan in interest. As of September 12, 2025, 2.78 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds had been issued, with 800 billion yuan allocated to supplement government - funded financial resources for debt resolution [6]. - From 2023 to December 19, 2025, 722, 428, and 353 urban investment platforms exited respectively. Since 2024, various provinces have taken measures in debt replacement, platform exit, enterprise transformation, asset revitalization, and cooperation with financial institutions, achieving certain results. Key provinces have effectively reduced interest burdens and eased repayment pressures through special refinancing bonds, while non - key areas have focused on long - term mechanism building [5][6][8]. Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Companies Investment - Since 2022, the growth rates of urban construction - related assets and self - operated assets have continued to decline, but they remain the main capital flow due to the large base. In the first half of 2025, the investment growth rate further slowed down, and the investment structure continued to adjust [13]. - From 2022 to June 2025, the scales of urban construction - related assets, self - operated assets, and equity and fund investment assets of urban investment companies all continued to rise. In June 2025, the proportions of urban construction - related assets, self - operated assets, and equity and fund - related assets were 63.06%, 24.22%, and 12.72% respectively [13][15]. - As of June 2025, most provinces' total investment in the three categories and urban construction - related asset investment showed positive growth. The total investment growth rate of Inner Mongolia was negative. Hainan, Beijing, Hebei, and Jilin had relatively high growth rates [16]. - As of June 2025, Hainan and Heilongjiang had relatively high proportions of urban construction - related assets; Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Guangdong, and Gansu had relatively high proportions of self - operated assets; Yunnan, Hebei, Shanghai, and Guangdong had relatively high proportions of equity and fund - related investments [17]. Receivables - In the first half of 2025, the accounts receivable scale of urban investment companies continued to expand, but the overall growth rate slowed down, and a small number of provinces achieved a reduction in accounts receivable. The cash - to - income ratio remained at a high level [19][20]. - From 2022 to June 2025, the accounts receivable scale of urban investment companies continued to grow. As of June 2025, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hunan had relatively large accounts receivable scales, while Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Ningxia, Hainan, and Qinghai had accounts receivable below 10 billion yuan. Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai had relatively fast growth rates, while Shanxi, Liaoning, and Tibet had negative growth rates [21][22]. Financing - In the first half of 2025, the financing activities of urban investment companies remained in a net inflow state, with further regional differentiation. Provinces with large net inflows were concentrated in economically developed regions such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Yunnan and Qinghai had continuous net outflows since 2022, and Tibet and Guizhou changed from net inflows in 2024 to net outflows in the first half of 2025 [23][25]. - From 2022 to 2024, the cash inflow and outflow of urban investment companies' financing activities both increased year - by - year, with a decreasing net inflow. In the first half of 2025, the financing cash was in a net inflow state. In the first half of 2025, regions with large cash inflows from financing activities included Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan, and Henan [26][27]. Interest - Bearing Debt - In the first half of 2025, the debt scale of urban investment companies continued to grow, but the debt growth rate continued to slow down. The debt term structure improved compared to the end of the previous year, but the overall liquidity pressure was still relatively large, and the financing structure was optimized, still mainly relying on bank loans [28]. - As of June 2025, the debt scale of urban investment companies still increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Shandong had relatively large debt scales. Hainan had a debt growth rate of over 20%, while some key provinces such as Henan, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia saw a decline in debt scale [31]. - As of June 2025, the short - term debt ratio of urban investment companies decreased compared to the end of 2024. Jiangsu and Shandong had relatively high short - term debt ratios. The short - term debt ratios of some key provinces such as Yunnan and Liaoning decreased [32]. - As of June 2025, the financing channels of urban investment companies were mainly bank loans (62.40%), followed by bond financing (22.04%) and non - standard financing (15.56%). The proportion of bank loans increased, while the proportions of bond financing and non - standard financing decreased. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds in all provinces decreased in the first half of 2025, with a larger decline in key provinces [33][30]. Debt - Repayment Ability - In the first half of 2025, the overall debt burden of urban investment companies still increased, but the debt burden of most key provinces' urban investment companies decreased. The cash - to - short - term - debt ratio improved, but attention should still be paid to the debt - repayment and liquidity pressures [36]. - From the end of 2022 to June 2025, the overall asset - liability ratio and total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment companies continued to rise, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio rebounded in June 2025. Beijing, Zhejiang, and other regions had relatively heavy debt burdens, while most key provinces' urban investment companies saw a reduction in debt burden [38]. Summary - Since 2025, provinces have achieved certain results in debt resolution, including significantly reducing financing costs through debt replacement, significantly reducing the number of financing platforms, and revitalizing assets to provide important funds for debt repayment. The debt scale growth rate of urban investment companies has continued to slow down, and the term and financing structures have been adjusted [39]. - Urban investment companies still face the pressure to deepen market - oriented transformation, aiming to achieve a new dynamic balance between serving regional economic development and consolidating debt stability [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hubei Province's debt resolution work is progressing steadily. The investment growth rate of urban investment companies has slowed down, the investment structure has been continuously adjusted, the growth rate of debt scale has slowed down, and new financing has mainly shifted to bank loans, with the combined proportion of bonds and other financing continuously decreasing. Most regions of urban investment companies in the province have seen an expansion in accounts receivable, and the repayment pressure needs to be alleviated. The net cash inflow from financing activities of urban investment companies has been shrinking year by year, and some regional urban investment companies still face liquidity pressure. Urban investment companies need to improve their operational efficiency through "Three Capitals and Three Transformations" and substantial transformation, and promote debt resolution and development in a coordinated manner by enhancing their self - hematopoietic ability [2][40] Summary by Directory I. Hubei Province's Debt Control Situation - **Overall Debt Control**: Hubei Province strictly implements the debt resolution plan. It actively resolves debts through measures such as the "Three Capitals" reform and strives for replacement bond quotas. It also strengthens supervision through digital platforms, achieving the goal of exiting financing platforms ahead of schedule and keeping local debt risks generally under control [4][6] - **"Three Capitals and Three Transformations"**: Since 2023, Hubei has promoted the construction of a large - fiscal system with debt resolution as the entry - point. By the end of 2024, the province basically completed the inventory of "Three Capitals". In May 2025, it deepened the reform of state - owned "Three Capitals" management. Provincial - owned enterprises aim to revitalize 150 billion yuan of inefficient and idle assets in three years [5] - **Replacement Bonds**: In November 2024, after the National People's Congress Standing Committee approved the local debt - resolution "combination punch", Hubei Province received 294.6 billion yuan, with an annual issuance quota of 98.2 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 for special bonds to replace implicit debts [6] - **Regional Debt Control**: In 2025, various cities in Hubei Province actively carried out debt - control and debt - resolution work, including revitalizing state - owned "Three Capitals", formulating debt - resolution plans, and strengthening debt supervision. For example, Wuhan revitalized assets worth 142.6 billion yuan, and Xiangyang completed the replacement of 7.75 billion yuan of implicit debts ahead of schedule [7] II. Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hubei Province 1. Investment - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 to June 2025, the scale of three types of investments (urban construction assets, self - operating assets, equity and fund investment assets) of urban investment companies in Hubei Province continued to rise, but the growth rate has been slowing down since 2023. Since 2023, the growth rates of self - operating assets, equity and fund investment assets have exceeded that of urban construction assets. The proportion of urban construction assets has continued to decline slightly, but it remains the main asset composition [13] - **Regional Differences**: In 2024, most regions in Hubei Province saw an overall increase in the three types of investments, with a median growth rate of 3.81%. The combined growth rate of the three types of investments in provincial - level, Shiyan, Jingmen, Xianning and Xiaogan was relatively high. The proportion of urban construction assets in most regions was relatively high, except for Wuhan where the proportion of self - operating assets was relatively large [14][15] 2. Collection - **Overall Situation**: Since 2022, the accounts receivable of urban investment companies in Hubei Province have been increasing year by year, with fluctuating growth rates. The cash - income ratio has declined slightly since 2023 [18][20] - **Regional Differences**: In 2024, the accounts receivable of Wuhan's urban investment companies were significantly higher than those in other regions. The growth rates of accounts receivable in Qianjiang, Tianmen and Jingzhou were relatively fast. In 2024, the cash - income ratios of Huangshi, Shiyan, Jingmen, Xiantao and Enshi were high, while those of Tianmen and Ezhou were relatively low [21] 3. Financing - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 to 2024, the net cash inflow from financing activities of urban investment companies in Hubei Province continued but shrank year by year. In 2024, the net cash flow from financing activities decreased significantly. In the first half of 2025, the net cash inflow from financing activities increased by 45.16% year - on - year [23][25][26] - **Regional Differences**: In 2024, the financing activities of Wuhan's urban investment companies accounted for nearly 40% of the province. The financing activities of various cities in Hubei Province showed significant differences. The financing activities of urban investment companies in Jingzhou, Qianjiang, Huanggang, Ezhou, Enshi and Xiantao showed net outflows, while those of other cities showed net inflows [26] 4. Interest - Bearing Debt - **Debt Scale**: From 2022 to June 2025, the debt scale of urban investment companies in Hubei Province continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. In 2024, the growth rate decreased by 7.15 percentage points to 3.50%. In 2024, the debt scale of Wuhan's urban investment companies accounted for nearly 50% of the province [31] - **Debt Maturity**: The overall debt maturity structure of urban investment companies in Hubei Province is still dominated by long - term debt, but the proportion of short - term debt has shown a slight upward trend. As of June 2025, short - term debt accounted for about 20%. The proportion of short - term debt in provincial - level and Huangshi exceeded 30% [31] - **Debt Structure**: As of the end of 2024, bank loans were the main financing channel for urban investment companies in Hubei Province (about 56%), followed by bond financing (about 28%) and other financing (about 16%). Since 2022, the combined proportion of bond financing and other financing has continued to decline, while the scale and proportion of bank financing have continued to increase [32] - **Bond Financing**: From 2024 to January - September 2025, the overall bond financing of urban investment companies in Hubei Province showed a net outflow. In 2024 and January - September 2025, most regions' urban investment bond financing showed net outflows [32] 5. Solvency - **Overall Situation**: From 2022 to June 2025, the overall debt scale of urban investment companies in Hubei Province continued to expand, the asset - liability ratio and the overall debt capitalization ratio showed an upward trend. From 2022 to the end of 2024, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio decreased year by year and rebounded to the level at the end of 2023 in June 2025 [37] - **Regional Differences**: In 2024, the debt burdens of provincial - level, Ezhou, Wuhan, Jingzhou and Xiangyang were relatively heavy. The debt burdens of Shiyan and Suizhou were relatively light. Most cities in Hubei Province faced relatively large short - term solvency pressure, while Wuhan, Huanggang and Tianmen faced relatively small short - term solvency pressure [37][38] III. Conclusion - Hubei Province's debt resolution work has been progressing steadily, but urban investment companies still face challenges such as slow investment growth, accounts receivable pressure, and liquidity pressure. They need to improve operational efficiency and self - hematopoietic ability through "Three Capitals and Three Transformations" and substantial transformation to promote debt resolution and development [40]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has announced the listing of the third phase of non-public corporate bonds issued by Chongqing Hechuan Urban Construction Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. aimed at professional investors, effective from December 18, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1 - The bonds will be traded under the name "25渝合04" with the security code "281018" [2]. - The trading methods for these bonds include click transaction, inquiry transaction, bidding transaction, and negotiated transaction [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing efforts of Shaanxi Province in China to address the issue of hidden local government debt, focusing on the "zero clearance" pilot program aimed at sustainable economic development [2][8]. Group 1: Hidden Debt "Zero Clearance" Pilot - Shaanxi Province has shifted its focus from a province-wide "zero clearance" approach to targeting specific cities and counties for achieving hidden debt clearance, reflecting a more precise and operational strategy [10]. - The county-level practices, such as those in Qishan County, demonstrate significant progress with clear repayment plans and successful debt resolution through bond funding, alleviating local debt burdens and fostering economic growth [10][12]. Group 2: Debt Clearance Challenges in Han City - Han City faces significant challenges in debt clearance, with ongoing issues of unpaid debts to private enterprises, raising concerns about the effectiveness of debt resolution efforts [11][12]. - The Han City Investment Group has reportedly defaulted on nearly 10 billion yuan in payments, including substantial debts related to the pepper industry park project, leading to accusations of fraudulent agreements and fund misappropriation [12]. Group 3: Comprehensive Measures for Debt Resolution - Shaanxi Province employs a multi-faceted approach to achieve debt clearance, including debt replacement and resolution through the issuance of special local government bonds to reduce interest burdens and optimize debt structures [12][13]. - A differentiated handling mechanism for various types of debts and arrears has been established, promoting amicable negotiations for disputed debts and guiding unresolved cases through judicial channels [13]. - The province is also pushing for the market-oriented transformation of financing platform companies to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts, which is crucial for sustainable economic development [13][5].