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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250606
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 01:35
Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs as the primary means of trade engagement [1][9][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][9] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][9] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The report suggests that the RMB exchange rate may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation between 7.15 and 7.22 [11][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [13] - The report highlights that the US trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with April imports showing a historic decline of 19.8%, indicating a slowdown in the "import rush" effect driven by tariff policies [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and Structured Financing - The report notes that the valuation of city investment ABS is less correlated with duration compared to credit bonds, suggesting that shorter-duration ABS may offer better risk-return profiles [3][4] - The weighted average coupon rate of city investment ABS is approximately 3.25%, which is lower than the overall market for credit bonds, indicating a favorable financing environment for structured products [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of the quality of underlying assets and the issuing entity's qualifications in determining the valuation of city investment ABS [4][18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a strategic focus on ecosystem investment for sustainable growth [6] - Gilead Sciences' ASC40 acne treatment achieved all primary and secondary endpoints in Phase III trials, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to FDA-approved alternatives [7] - The report on SOTON Robotics indicates a significant drop in revenue for Q1 2025, but an increase in gross margin, suggesting potential for recovery through new product launches and market expansion [8]