Investment Highlights - In January-February 2026, fixed asset investment growth was 1.8%, a 2 percentage point improvement from the 3.8% decline in 2025[5] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth, which was boosted by 3 percentage points from infrastructure alone[16] - Social retail sales (社零) increased by 2.8%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%[6] Infrastructure as a Key Driver - Infrastructure investment was the main contributor to the positive investment growth, with a notable rebound in construction and installation projects rather than equipment purchases[16] - The real estate sector showed a rebound with a -11.1% growth rate, improving by 6.1 percentage points compared to the previous year[5] - New construction area declined by 23.1% year-on-year, indicating a lack of improvement in the construction and demand sides of real estate[17] Statistical Adjustments and Implications - The recent adjustment in infrastructure investment statistics did not affect the overall fixed asset investment growth, which would have turned positive regardless of the adjustment[24] - The adjustment included previously excluded sectors like electricity and water supply, but the core infrastructure growth rate remained robust at 11.4%[24] - The new statistical scope overlaps with previous measures but does not fully align, indicating a nuanced understanding of infrastructure investment metrics[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient growth stabilization policies, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[27]