1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Building an effective timing factor framework for Shanghai copper futures can identify price trend turning points through quantitative means, providing a scientific basis for trading decisions and helping investors capture excess returns. The framework includes 14 fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and 7 volume - price factors. After back - testing and screening, factors are combined equally weighted to output trend strength signals. The fundamental and volume - price factors have low correlation, and investors can adjust the proportion of the two types of factors according to their target returns and risk requirements [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Shanghai Copper Single Commodity Timing Factor Framework - The model divides factors into fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and volume - price factors. Fundamental factors are constructed from dimensions such as inventory, basis, upstream inventory, profit, spread, and macro - indicators, while volume - price factors are constructed from dimensions such as momentum, moving averages, trading volume, price - volume correlation, and technical indicators [6]. - The model currently contains 14 fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and 7 volume - price factors, with specific factor names provided [8]. - Back - testing and screening settings: Fundamental factors are back - tested from January 2016, volume - price factors from January 2010, and out - of - sample back - testing from January 2022 to December 2024. Other settings include unified bilateral commission of 0.03%, 1 - fold leverage, cumulative return calculation, factor value mapping to 0, 1, - 1, and more [9][10][11]. 3.2 Introduction and Back - testing Results of Shanghai Copper Fundamental Quantitative Factors - **Processing Profit**: Low processing profit may reduce supply and pressure prices, while high profit may increase supply and support prices. From 2020, its back - tested annualized return is 23.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.94 [17]. - **Downstream Processing Fee**: Rising fees may increase demand and push up prices, while falling fees may reduce demand and prices. From 2021, its back - tested annualized return is 10.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.66 [19]. - **Cathode Copper Inventory**: Rising inventory indicates supply surplus and may pressure prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 17.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.62 [21]. - **Basis**: Expanding basis may indicate supply shortage, while narrowing basis may indicate supply surplus. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 17.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.71 [23]. - **Social Inventory**: Similar to cathode copper inventory, rising social inventory may pressure prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.6 [25]. - **LME Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: An important external market inventory factor. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 21.8%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.99 [27]. - **Futures Inventory**: Similar to the logic of warehouse receipts. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 19.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.73 [30]. - **Comex Copper Inventory**: Different from other inventory factors, more inventory indicates stronger buying sentiment. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26 [32]. - **Scrap Copper Spread**: Widening spread may suppress refined copper prices, while narrowing spread may support prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 7.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.86 [34]. - **Imported Copper Concentrate Index (TC)**: Higher TC may increase supply and pressure prices, while lower TC may reduce supply and support prices. From 2020, its back - tested annualized return is 18.8%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.43 [36]. - **CFTC Non - Commercial Position**: Net long position has a positive predictive effect on prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 11.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.79 [38]. - **US Dollar Index**: Rising dollar index may suppress copper prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 8.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 [40]. - **VIX Index**: Copper prices are mostly negatively correlated with the VIX index. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 11.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 [42]. - **US Manufacturing PMI**: As a leading economic indicator, it affects copper prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.32 [44]. - **Fundamental Multi - Factor**: Combining the first 4 fundamental single factors equally weighted, from 2016, the back - tested annualized return is 33.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.0 [46]. 3.3 Introduction and Back - testing Results of Shanghai Copper Volume - Price Factors - **Intraday Momentum**: A larger value indicates a stronger upward momentum. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 8.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.3 [48]. - **Median Double Moving Averages**: Short - term moving average crossing above the long - term moving average is a buy signal, and vice versa. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 10.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [50]. - **Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)**: Calculated through efficiency coefficient and smoothing constant. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 7.2%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.56 [52][53]. - **On - Balance Volume (OBV)**: Calculated based on price and volume, and a long - short double moving average strategy is constructed. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 8.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 [55][56]. - **Price - Volume Correlation**: Stronger correlation is more likely to form a trending market. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 7.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 [61]. - **Rebound Momentum**: Calculated based on the difference between closing price and low price, and high price and low price. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 11.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.93 [61]. - **TRIX**: A long - short double moving average strategy is constructed based on the daily change rate of EX3. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 12.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.16 [63][66]. - **Volume - Price Multi - Factor**: Combining the first 7 volume - price single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 13.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.32 [68]. 3.4 Comprehensive Model of Fundamental Quantification and Volume - Price Multi - Factors - **All - Factor Combined Long - Short Model**: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 18.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.53 [70]. - **Long - Only Model**: - Fundamental long - only model: Combining the first 14 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 8.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 [72]. - Volume - price long - only model: Combining the last 7 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.82 [73]. - All - factor comprehensive long - only model: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 10.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [76]. - **Short - Only Model**: - Fundamental short - only model: Combining the first 14 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 [77]. - Volume - price short - only model: Combining the last 7 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 5.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.55 [79]. - All - factor comprehensive short - only model: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.7%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 [81]. - The long - only and short - only models can help enterprises with timing hedging. The comprehensive model of factors is relatively stable in different years, and investors can adjust the proportion of fundamental and volume - price factors according to their target returns and risks [85].