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华商基金吴毓灵:在不确定的市场中 寻找“确定性”的配置窗口
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-02-12 00:59
Core Insights - The structural differentiation of the economy continues into 2026, with an accelerated adjustment in the transition from old to new growth drivers, making the bond market a sensitive window for observing macroeconomic changes [1] Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals maintained a structural differentiation, with production and exports showing resilience, as indicated by the PMI returning to the expansion zone and a moderate recovery in price levels from low points [1] - However, domestic demand remains weak, with a slowdown in retail sales growth, significant pressure on fixed asset investment, and stagnant real estate sales [1] - Monetary policy continues to be moderately accommodative, with overall stability in funding prices [1] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in Q3, with interest rates for government bonds fluctuating at high levels due to factors such as trade frictions, new fund regulations, changes in institutional behavior, and credit risks in real estate companies [2] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing from 1.37% at the end of September to 1.34% at the end of December, while the 10-year yield remained around 1.85% and the 30-year yield increased from 2.25% to 2.27% during the same period [2] - In the credit bond sector, benefiting from a loose funding environment and demand for amortized bond funds, the yields on medium to short-term credit bonds have generally declined, with credit spreads narrowing [2] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on allocating to medium to high-grade credit bonds while actively participating in trading both interest rate and credit bonds, aiming for long-term stable growth of fund assets while strictly controlling risks [2]