Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is likely entering an adjustment phase due to the continuous improvement in economic conditions since the beginning of the year, reducing the necessity for significant monetary policy easing [4][176] - The report highlights that the yield on most bond varieties decreased in March, with credit spreads narrowing significantly for long-term varieties [4][10] - The report notes that the domestic GDP growth rate for January-February reached 5.2%, indicating sustained economic growth momentum, with expectations for a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.7% for the year [4][89] Group 2 - The report discusses the overseas economic fundamentals, noting negative job growth in the US and stable inflation, with the US CPI remaining at 2.4% year-on-year [34][39] - The report mentions that the European and Japanese economies are experiencing a slight decline in economic activity, with the Eurozone CPI rising slightly to 1.9% year-on-year [42] - The report emphasizes that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, balancing short-term and long-term needs while ensuring the health of the financial system [104][105] Group 3 - The report tracks the impact of price factors on asset prices, indicating that price changes will be a core focus for asset trends in 2026 [4][176] - The report highlights that the credit spread for long-term varieties has narrowed significantly, with 5-year AA- and AA credit spreads decreasing by 8 basis points [20] - The report notes a significant decrease in default amounts in March, with total default amounts dropping to 0.85 billion, down from 1.76 billion the previous month [28]

Group 1 - In Q1 2026, bond yields exhibited an "N" shaped trend, with significant upward movement in 30Y yields, influenced by pre- and post-Spring Festival market dynamics and rising inflation expectations [10][11]. - The bond market experienced a "sharp drop followed by slow recovery" before the Spring Festival, with a notable "see-saw effect" between equity and bond markets [10]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to financing [37][41]. Group 2 - The economic performance at the beginning of 2026 was strong, with a notable recovery in the manufacturing sector as indicated by the March PMI returning to the expansion zone [48][63]. - In January and February, the production sector showed significant strength, with fixed asset investment growth turning positive at 1.8%, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments [59][62]. - The EPMI index saw a substantial increase in March, reflecting robust production recovery and strong demand, with production volume and procurement significantly improving [63][67]. Group 3 - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile and slightly bearish state in Q2, with a continuation of the steepening curve pattern, suggesting potential trading opportunities in the long end [75].

Report Information - Report Date: March 29, 2026 [1] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly - Big Banks Step In to Buy Long - Term Bonds Again [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, the performance of treasury bonds was remarkable. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and 30Y treasury bonds' active bonds decreased by 2.25bp, 0.6bp, and 1bp respectively. This was closely related to the actions of large - scale banks. Large - scale banks net - bought 51 billion yuan of 10Y treasury bonds this week, compared with a net - selling of 36 billion yuan in the previous week (March 16 - 20). If the current trend of large - scale banks buying bonds continues, there is still about a 2bp downward space for 10 - year treasury bonds, which may stabilize the market before the upcoming special treasury bond issuance plan [6][11]. - Insurance institutions sold a large amount of 30 - year treasury bonds this week but still increased their holdings of the active bond 2500006. They mainly net - sold three old bonds: 210005, 200012, and 190010, possibly for quarter - end statement adjustment and realizing floating profits [6][12]. - For the bond market approaching the quarter - end, the yield curve is likely to remain steep under the influence of inflation expectations. Therefore, investors' mainstream choice is medium - and short - duration coupon assets and cautious attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. In the short term, this phenomenon will continue. Without a tightening signal from monetary policy, the yield curve is likely to be repaired from short - to long - term, and the next target may be 10Y China Development Bank bonds. For 30 - year treasury bonds, note that the liquidity of 2500002 has significantly improved recently. If the active bond is switched, 2500006 may weaken relatively, and investors can transfer part of their positions from 2500006 to 2500002 and 230023 [6][12]. Section Summaries This Week's Bond Market Review - The performance of treasury bonds was excellent this week. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and 30Y treasury bonds' active bonds decreased. The actions of large - scale banks were the main reason. Large - scale banks' net - buying of 10Y treasury bonds increased, and if the trend continues, 10 - year treasury bonds may have a 2bp downward space and play a role in stabilizing the market before the special treasury bond issuance [11]. - Insurance institutions sold a large amount of 30 - year treasury bonds but increased their holdings of the active bond 2500006, mainly net - selling three old bonds, possibly for quarter - end adjustment. The bond market yield curve is likely to remain steep, and investors prefer medium - and short - duration coupon assets and are cautious about ultra - long - term bonds. The yield curve may be repaired from short - to long - term, and the next target may be 10Y China Development Bank bonds. Attention should be paid to the liquidity change of 30 - year treasury bonds and the possible active bond switch [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance of global asset markets including 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, and credit bond indices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Greece, Japan, Brazil, China, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are 4.345, 4.915, 3.709, 3.002, 3.875, 3.513, 0.382, 3.855, 2.304, 6.298, 1.840, N/A, 5.118, 4.883 respectively [3] - **2 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, China (1 - year yield), South Korea, and Australia are 3.854, 4.412, 2.571, 1.293, 2.827, 1.250, N/A, 4.817 respectively [3] - **Exchange rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit are 5.235, N/A, 16.820, 1488.350, 33.000, N/A respectively. The latest on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates are 6.884, the RMB central parity rate is 6.904, and the 12 - month NDF is 6.728 [3] - **Stock indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ, Mexican index, UK index, French CAC, German DAX, Spanish index, Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index, South Korean index, Indian index, Thai index, Malaysian index, Australian index, and emerging - economy index are 6581.000, 46208.470, 21946.760, 64370.950, 9894.150, 7726.200, 22653.860, 16888.200, N/A, 51515.490, 24382.470, 3813.283, 32722.500, 5405.750, N/A, 1397.340, N/A, 8552.642, 1419.950 respectively [3] - **Credit bond indices**: The latest values of US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, emerging - economy investment - grade, US high - yield, euro - area high - yield, and emerging - economy high - yield credit bond indices are 3518.560, 263.418, 286.650, 2900.390, 404.460, 1807.438 respectively [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3813.28, 4418.00, 2792.33, 3235.22, 7440.75 respectively, with percentage changes of - 3.63%, - 3.26%, - 3.17%, - 3.49%, - 4.11% [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.61, 11.11, 33.60, 25.75, 16.36 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.41, - 0.33, - 1.48, 0.29, 0.20 [4] - **Risk premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX are - 0.46, 3.11 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, - 0.04 [4] - **Fund flow**: The latest values of fund flow in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1165.82, - 790.08, N/A, - 247.62, - 273.17 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 1062.59, - 815.58, N/A, - 166.72, - 172.62 respectively [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets - **Transaction amount**: The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 24315.18, 6717.20, 1739.93, 4659.68, 6124.16 respectively, with环比 changes of 1447.07, 562.57, 382.62, 494.51, - 471.44 [5] - **Main contract basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 73.60, - 16.33, - 205.75 respectively, with basis spreads of - 1.67%, - 0.58%, - 2.77% [5] - **Treasury futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.15, 105.92, 108.11, 105.72 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.10%, - 0.06%, - 0.08%, - 0.07% [5] - **Funding rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3961%, 1.4763%, 1.5182% respectively, with daily changes of - 8.00 BP, 0.00 BP, 0.00 BP [5]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 26.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan for the day after 40.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3][4]. - The interbank market showed a slight tightening, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 4 basis points to around 1.37% [5][6]. - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was approximately 1.557%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Key Financial Events - The National Development Bank plans to issue up to 35 billion yuan in financial bonds on March 12 [17]. - Amazon intends to issue bonds to raise at least 37 billion dollars to support its significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure [17]. Global Macro Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest-ever release of oil reserves to stabilize soaring oil prices amid the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, exceeding the 182 million barrels released during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15]. - European Central Bank officials expressed differing views on interest rate hikes due to the Iran situation, with some suggesting faster increases while others believe current rates should remain unchanged [15]. Investment Risks - Recent reports indicated various non-standard asset risks, including trust plans and financing lease disputes, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the market [19].

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through its flagship Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a positive return of 0.21% in February, with a year-to-date return of 0.59% [5][6] - The Bloomberg China High Liquidity Credit (LCC) Index achieved a return of 0.19% in February, while the China USD Credit (Kungfu) Index continued its positive performance with a return of 1.22% in February and 1.64% year-to-date [5][6] Monthly Index Performance - The China Aggregate Index level stood at 245.85, with a 30-day volatility decrease noted in February [5][7] - The Treasury Index recorded a return of 0.18% in February and 0.58% year-to-date, while the Government-Related Index achieved a return of 0.23% in February and 0.60% year-to-date [7] - The Corporate Index had a return of 0.22% in February and 0.55% year-to-date, with maturity segments showing varied performance [7] Market Developments - Hong Kong is expected to record its first fiscal surplus in four years for the fiscal year 2025-26, with total bond issuance projected to increase from HKD 155 billion to HKD 160 billion [9] - The issuance of Panda bonds reached a historical high of RMB 27.5 billion in January, indicating a potential milestone year for 2026 [9] - Offshore RMB bond market activity saw a total issuance of RMB 27.86 billion, reflecting a balanced issuance ratio with the Panda bond market [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the bond market showed an overall recovery. The ChinaBond New Composite Index, which represents the domestic bond market, rose 0.39% since the beginning of the year. Long - term interest - rate bonds had better returns, and the ChinaBond Preferred Investment - Grade Credit Bond Index had a return of 0.37% since the start of the year, slightly better than other representative broad - based credit bond indices. The ChinaBond AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index had a slightly higher return than other representative theme indices [6]. - The yields of government bonds at most key tenors decreased slightly, and long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well. The yields of credit bonds of various grades were slightly differentiated, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The spreads between various industries and government bonds remained basically unchanged, and the wealth index returns of all industries increased [7]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 2026 Bond Market Review - The ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.39% since the beginning of 2026. Long - term interest - rate bonds had good returns. The ChinaBond Preferred Investment - Grade Credit Bond Index had a 0.37% return, and the ChinaBond AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index had a relatively high return [6]. - The yields of government bonds at most key tenors decreased slightly in January, and long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well. Credit bond yields were slightly differentiated, with positive overall wealth index returns. Industry - government bond spreads were stable, and industry wealth index returns increased [7]. - The trading volume of the domestic RMB bond market decreased slightly compared with the previous month. The monthly standard deviation of the daily return of the ChinaBond New Composite Wealth Index was about 0.047%, a 0.010 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The market trading volume was about 26.06 trillion yuan [13]. 3.2 This Month's Interest - Rate Bond Market Review - At the end of the month, government bond yields decreased slightly at key tenors such as 1, 5, 7, and 10 years, and slightly increased at other key tenors (including 30 years). The term spread of government bonds and the spread between China Development Bank bonds and government bonds remained basically unchanged [22]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Index's wealth index rose 0.36%. Medium - and long - term government bond indices had slightly better returns. The ChinaBond Preferred Investment Government Bond Index performed slightly better than the ChinaBond Preferred Investment Policy - Financial Bond Index [28]. - Long - term interest - rate bond indices performed well this month. The top 5 interest - rate bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond 10 - Year Government Bond Index with a return of 0.66% and a duration of 7.63 years [32][33]. 3.3 This Month's Credit Bond Market Review - Credit bond yields fluctuated slightly, and the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market was positive. The ChinaBond Credit Bond Aggregate Index's wealth index rose 0.30% [34]. - The spreads of high - grade credit bonds were slightly differentiated. Taking 3 - year credit bonds as an example, the spread of AAA - rated credit bonds remained basically unchanged, while the spreads of other grades narrowed slightly. The spreads between the yield curves of ChinaBond enterprise bonds of four grades (AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA) and government bonds were at the 43%, 35%, 32%, and 29% percentiles of the past 3 years respectively [37]. - The spreads between various industries and government bonds remained basically unchanged, and the wealth index returns of all industries increased. The ChinaBond Real Estate Industry Credit Bond Index had a return of about 0.44%, performing the best [40]. - The return of credit bond indices was positive, and the commercial bank secondary capital bond index performed well. The top 5 credit bond indices in terms of monthly return included the ChinaBond State - owned Large - scale Commercial Banks and Joint - stock Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Index with a return of 0.50% and a duration of 3.51 years [45][46]. - There were no new default issuers this month [47]. 3.4 Appendix: Correlation of Returns of Major Bond Types - The report presents the correlation coefficients of the daily wealth index returns of various bond indices in the past 3 months as of January 30, 2026, including the ChinaBond Preferred Investment Government Bond Index, ChinaBond Preferred Investment Policy - Financial Bond Index, etc. [48] 3.5 Awards - The institution has won multiple awards, such as being the "Best Fixed - Income Index Provider" for six consecutive years (2020 - 2025) by The Asset, the "Best ETF Index Provider" in 2025 by The Asset, etc. [51]

Core Viewpoint - The situation in the Middle East is escalating following attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, leading to a broader conflict involving multiple countries in the region [1] Group 1 - The U.S. and Israel have initiated military actions against Iran, which is a significant development in the geopolitical landscape [1] - The conflict has the potential to spread further across various countries in the Middle East, raising concerns about regional stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy adjustments, and commodity price fluctuations. The Middle - East conflict has a significant impact on energy prices, and the economic data of various countries shows different trends. For example, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI have certain fluctuations, and the US economic expectations are generally optimistic but also face challenges [18][22]. - In the financial market, the bond market is affected by factors such as risk aversion and policy expectations, and the stock market shows different trends in different regions, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both experiencing declines [25][35]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends. For example, metals such as aluminum and platinum have supply - demand changes, and energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP: In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - PMI: In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. The S&P manufacturing PMI was 52.1, the service PMI was 56.7, and the comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [1][2]. - Social Financing and Money Supply: In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively [1]. - CPI and PPI: In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 0.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI was - 1.4% [1]. - Investment and Consumption: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.7% [1]. - Foreign Trade: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import amounts were 6.60% and 5.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Affected by the Spring Festival, China's February official manufacturing PMI decreased, non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased. The S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [2]. - Multiple futures exchanges adjusted the trading margin and price limit of some contracts, such as fuel oil, crude oil, and methanol futures [2][3]. - On March 4, 29 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 40 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton was the largest, while that of butadiene rubber and apple was the smallest [4][5]. - The US imposed a maximum 143.3% temporary counter - subsidy tax on Indonesian photovoltaic cells and components, and Indonesia was preparing countermeasures [5]. - On March 4, the container shipping index (European line) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the April contract having the largest increase [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 3, Qatar Aluminum Company started an orderly shutdown, causing the London aluminum price to soar by more than 3.8% [6]. - The Thailand Futures Exchange suspended the online futures trading of silver and expanded the daily price limit [6]. - The global platinum market will have a supply shortage of 240,000 ounces in 2026, with total demand expected to decrease by 8% and total supply expected to increase by 2% [6]. - In January, the net gold purchase of global central banks was 5 tons, significantly less than the average of the past 12 months [7]. - As of March 4, the positions of the world's largest silver and gold ETFs decreased [8]. - On March 3, the copper and tin inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead inventories decreased [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Indonesia reduced the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 30% compared with 2025, reformed the resource tax mechanism, and expected a domestic supply gap of 1.2 billion tons [9]. - Indonesia adjusted the nickel ore production plan to maintain supply - demand balance and support the nickel price [9]. - Indonesia's coal production target in 2026 is 733 million tons, and the coal output in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [9]. - A landslide occurred in a mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on March 3, resulting in hundreds of people being buried [10]. - Vale expects the iron ore supply to slightly exceed demand by 2030, reaching 1.54 billion tons [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Due to the Middle - East situation, the EU may restart discussions on the Russian natural gas import ban, and the European natural gas price has soared by 75% this week [12]. - Thailand is one of the most vulnerable economies in Asia due to high energy import dependence. State - owned enterprises are under pressure to stabilize prices [12]. - Iraq is shutting down the production of its largest oil field due to the approaching exhaustion of oil storage space and may cut production by about 3 million barrels per day if the Holmuze crisis continues [12]. - The French economic minister said there is no risk of oil and gas shortage in the next few weeks and will not tolerate excessive fuel price increases [12]. - In the week ending February 27, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 3.475 million barrels, higher than expected [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In late February, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with cotton reaching a new high since June 2024, while most fertilizer and pesticide prices fell [14]. - US exporters sold 125,000 tons of corn to unknown buyers [15]. - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in March are expected to increase compared with the same period last year [15]. - Due to weather problems, Ukraine's rapeseed export price is expected to rise in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 4, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 369 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5 to 12, with a series of agendas and activities [17]. - The National Office of the State Council will hold a briefing on March 5 to interpret the Government Work Report [17]. - The spokesperson of the NPC said that the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be reviewed and approved, and policies such as expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the private economy will be implemented [17]. - China's February official manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs decreased, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly [18]. - China's February S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [19]. - The former deputy governor of the central bank said that China's macro - policies in 2026 will be more active and moderately loose [19]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all parties to stop military operations in the Holmuze Strait [20]. - Three departments announced tax - exemption policies for the China International Fair for Trade in Services from 2026 to 2027 [21]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the February China Commodity Price Index decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by 10.9% year - on - year [21]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or more, and China will send a special envoy to the Middle - East [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court's veto of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Persian Gulf [22]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination may face obstacles [22]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economic outlook is generally optimistic, but some regions' economic activities are flat or declining [22]. - The OECD said that the developed countries' government bond issuance scale will reach a record high of $18 trillion in 2026, and the bond market faces challenges [23]. - There are bond - related events such as overdue debts and bond redemptions of some companies [23]. - Some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was strong, with the yields of interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures of most contracts rising [25]. - The exchange bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the real - estate and high - yield urban investment bond indexes rose slightly [26]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell [27]. - Most money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [27][28]. - The yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were determined through bidding [29]. - European bond yields generally fell, while US bond yields rose [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 4, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted down [31]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities suggested pre - arranging South Korean government bonds as they will be included in the WGBI in April 2026, which is expected to bring $50 - 60 billion of passive funds [32]. - CITIC Securities analyzed the PPI cycle and pointed out that predicting PPI trends requires considering both domestic and foreign factors [32]. - Western Fixed - Income believes that the credit - bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in March, and suggests controlling duration and using leverage strategies [33]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 5, 207 bonds will be listed, 154 bonds will be issued, 58 bonds will be paid, and 140 bonds will pay principal and interest [34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - A - shares adjusted with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all falling. The market focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the grid equipment and military equipment sectors rose [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all fell, with significant corrections in the oil and shipping sectors and general declines in technology stocks [35][36]. - FTSE Russell will adjust the FTSE China A50 Index, including China State Shipbuilding, Tianfu Communication, and Wanhua Chemical, with the adjustment taking effect on March 20, 2026 [36].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 34.3 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 34.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 526 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's open market shifted to a net withdrawal, but the interbank market remained loose at the beginning of the month, with the DR001 weighted average rate falling over 4 basis points to around 1.26%. Overnight rates on the anonymous click system (X-repo) were reported at 1.25%, with funding supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. In the overseas market, the US overnight financing rate was at 3.68% [5]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major national and joint-stock banks was at 1.565%, down 1 basis point from the previous day [9]. Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields on major interbank bonds showed various changes, with specific rates reflecting slight declines or stability across different maturities [10]. Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds - The article discusses the trends and data regarding the yield spreads of AAA-rated city investment bonds across different maturities [11]. Group 6: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures indicated a slight increase for the 30-year contract by 0.09%, while the 10-year contract decreased by 0.01%, and the 5-year contract remained unchanged [13]. Group 7: Key News and Information - The upcoming National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will take place from March 4 to March 11, with significant agendas including discussions on the national economic and social development plan [14]. - Shenzhen has issued new regulations for urban renewal projects, effective from March 16, 2026, which will impact the construction of affordable housing [15]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, aiming to establish a green circular development system for the solar industry [15]. Group 8: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan in 63-day discount treasury bonds on March 4, and Agricultural Development Bank will auction up to 26 billion yuan in financial bonds on the same day [19].