◎记者 赵明超 一场股债之间的资金迁徙持续上演：一边是债券基金频遭大额赎回，新发市场遇冷；另一边是权益类基 金爆款频出、ETF持续吸金。资金从债市向股市的迁徙趋势愈发清晰，权益资产的关注度持续提升。 债基频遭大额赎回 近日，多只债券基金被大额赎回。11月19日，天弘基金公告称，天弘通享债券基金于11月18日发生大额 赎回，为确保基金持有人利益不因份额净值的小数点保留精度受到不利影响，自11月18日起提高基金净 值精度至小数点后8位，小数点后第9位四舍五入。 同日，圆信永丰基金、新华基金也发布类似的公告。具体来看：圆信永丰兴和60天滚动持有债券基金A 类、C类于11月17日发生大额赎回；新华鼎利债券基金E类份额于11月18日发生大额赎回。 11月以来，已有超15只债券基金遭遇大额赎回，不得不提高净值精度。进一步梳理发现，遭遇大额赎回 的债券基金主要是纯债基金。 除存量产品遭遇赎回外，债券基金新发市场同样遇冷，近期鲜有爆款产品。Choice数据显示，截至11月 19日，11月以来共成立6只纯债基金，发行规模合计为18.6亿元，多数纯债基金发行规模2亿元左右，刚 迈过新基金成立门槛。 与债基遇冷形成鲜明对比，权益类 ...

资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡 （三）大宗商品 【内容摘要】11 月 18 日，资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债 个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄组失业率数据】11 月 18 日，国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄 组失业率数据。10 月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3%，不包含在 校生的 25-29 岁劳动力失业率为 7.2%，不包含在校生的 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8%。 【"两重"项目持续加力，基建投资增速料提升】近期，多个"两重"建设项目陆续开工。"两 重"是指国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。日前召开的国务院常务会议提出，要把 "两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进，牢牢把握战略性、前瞻性、全局性要求，强 化部门协同，注重软硬结合，推动国家重大战略深入实施、重点领域安全能力稳步提升。 【北京：鼓励符合条件的科创企业通过债券市场募集资金】11 月 18 日，央行北京市分行等 12 部门印发《金融支持北京市提振和 ...

——固收周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.14） ◼ 核心观点 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差收窄：2025 年 11 月 07 日- 2025 年 11 月 14 日期间，央行总计开展 12,637.00 亿元逆回购操作， 共 8,509.00 亿元逆回购到期，净投放 4,128.00 亿元。银行间资金价格 上行，其中 DR001 上行 4.08BP 至 1.3729%；DR007 上行 5.43BP 至 1.4673%。2025 年 11 月 10 日-2025 年 11 月 16 日期间，利率债一级发 行 7,268.66 亿元，净融资额为 3,903.22 亿元。2025 年 11 月 07 日-2025 年 11 月 14 日期间，国债现券收益率多数下行。国债 3 年期、5 年期、 7 年期、10 年期分别下行 0.52BP、0.57BP、0.10BP、0.02BP 至 1.4397%、 1.5816%、1.7128%、1.8140%；1 年期国债收益率上行 0.59BP 至 1.4104%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 40.97BP 收窄至 40.36BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Currently, various interest rate parity relationships are generally within a reasonable range, which provides further room for subsequent monetary easing. With the decline of deposit rates, it will further broaden the space for subsequent monetary policy easing to drive down the social financing cost [4][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comparison between Central Bank Interest Rates and Market Interest Rates - At the beginning of this year, the market interest rate deviated significantly from the policy rate, but it has now returned to the normal level. The DR007 rate has gradually fallen back to near the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate [1][9]. - In a smooth interest rate transmission mechanism, short - term money market interest rates revolve around the policy rate center and affect the overall market interest rate level through the financial system [1][9]. Comparison between Commercial Banks' Asset - side and Liability - side Interest Rates - Deposit rates and lending rates have been declining in tandem, which is expected to open up more policy operation space. Before 2024, the trends of deposit and lending rates diverged, but after 2024, the deposit rate turned downward, and the pressure on the narrowing net interest margin has been relieved to some extent [2][12]. Comparison of Yields of Different Types of Assets - **Long - term**: The comprehensive loan yield after deducting non - performing loans and taxes is highly consistent with the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. In the second quarter of this year, the weighted average loan interest rate was 3.29%, and the calculated weighted average loan yield was 1.52%, close to the 1.54% average yield of 5 - year Treasury bonds in the same period. Similar results can be obtained for mortgage loans [2][14]. - **Short - term**: The yield trends of different assets at the short - end are similar, with small spreads, indicating a stable parity relationship [2][17]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Terms The previously abnormal yield curve has now returned to a normal state. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spread is currently around 40bps, which is basically at a normal historical level [3][20]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Risks - Subsequent reduction of lending rates may require a decline in bond yields. Enterprise lending rates cannot be lower than government bond yields such as Treasury bonds and local bonds [4][22]. - High - interest 30 - year local bonds may restrict the downward movement of lending rates. Considering tax factors, the loan lower - limit determined by government bonds may be higher, which can reduce competitive low - price lending by banks but may also limit the decline in financing costs to some extent [4][25].

【导读】本周33只新基金启动募集，权益基金占比为三分之二 数据显示，根据基金公司发布的截至11月17日的募集公告，本周（11月17日—11月21日）5个交易日中，33只新基金将登场，面向投资者公开发行。 26只扎堆在周一发行 具体来看，周一（11月17日）本周33只新发基金中26只扎堆在周一开始发行，占本周新基金的78.79%；周二有1只新基金启动募集，周三有6只基金开始 认购。 从认购天数来看，本周新基金中，中航祥泰6个月封闭认购天数最长，达89天。在其之后，大摩中债1～5年政金债的计划认购天数为60天，中海港股通睿 选和中海智选成长紧随其后，认购天数均为45天。此外，永赢国证港股通互联网指数、国富恒安30天持有、长信上证科创板综合指数增强、人保中证500 指数增强等6只基金的认购天数在23天至33天之间。 整体来看，33只新基金平均认购天数为21.27天，较此前有所拉长。业内认为，这或与近期市场行情有关。中美关系改善预期兑现后，市场风险偏好有所 下降，上证指数于4000点附近震荡，或对新基金发行市场造成扰动。 本周新基金中，认购天数最短的是浦银安盛港股通消费和广发上证科创板100增强策略ETF联接，仅发售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing its best performance since 2020, driven by multiple favorable factors including Federal Reserve rate cuts, moderate economic slowdown, and easing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has achieved a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, marking a potential best annual performance since 2020 [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 0.5 percentage points this year, closing at 4.149% last Friday [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have become the core driver of the bond market's rise, as bonds issued at higher rates become more valuable when market expectations shift towards lower rates [2]. - The labor market cooling has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, with the possibility of further cuts [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Despite concerns over the U.S. budget deficit impacting yields, the decline in interest rates has largely overshadowed these worries [6]. - The U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, remaining stable compared to 2024, which could pose future challenges for the bond market [9]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the continuation of favorable conditions, believing that despite rising uncertainties, there is still room for further rate declines [9]. - The additional yield spread of investment-grade corporate bonds relative to Treasuries fell to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential overvaluation in the corporate bond market [8].

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 11, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after accounting for 117.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [2][4]. Market Liquidity - The central bank's significant net injection has led to a more balanced supply and demand in the interbank market, although overnight repo rates have increased to 1.51% [4]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.93% [4]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is approximately 1.63%, remaining stable compared to the previous day [7]. Bond Yield Rates - The yield rates for various government bonds are as follows: - 1-year: 1.40% - 2-year: 1.43% - 3-year: 1.43% - 5-year: 1.53% - 7-year: 1.70% - 10-year: 1.80% - 30-year: 2.15% [9]. Recent Policy Developments - The central bank emphasized enhancing financial support to boost consumption and proposed measures to support personal credit recovery and the real estate sector [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully allocated, with 105 infrastructure REITs projects recommended, leading to an expected total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [14]. Global Economic Insights - European Central Bank officials noted a balanced inflation risk and slightly higher growth and inflation than expected, while expressing concerns about retail investor participation in the stock market [16]. Bond Market Events - Upcoming bond issuance includes 26.16416 billion yuan in local government bonds by Guizhou Province on November 18 [18]. - Notable negative events in the bond market include downgrades and extensions involving various companies, indicating potential risks in the sector [19]. Non-standard Asset Risks - Recent disclosures indicate various non-standard asset risks associated with trust plans and other products, highlighting the need for vigilance in investment strategies [20].

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase reports that AI hyperscale data center operators are entering a significant expansion phase, with financing needs projected to reach at least $5 trillion over the next five years, potentially exceeding $7 trillion [1][3] Financing Channels - The investment-grade bond market is expected to provide approximately $1.5 trillion for AI data center construction over the next five years [3] - Leveraged finance is projected to contribute around $150 billion within the same timeframe, but even with additional funding from investment-grade bonds, high-yield debt markets, and up to $40 billion annually from data center securitization, there remains a funding gap of about $1.4 trillion [3] - Private credit and government funding are anticipated to be crucial supplementary sources to address this funding shortfall [3] Internal Funding Sources - The primary source of funding for AI data centers will not be external capital markets but rather the AI operators themselves, who generate approximately $700 billion in net revenue annually, with $500 billion allocated to capital expenditures [4]

智通财经APP获悉，据摩根大通公司的一项分析显示，人工智能巨头们大规模建设数据中心的行动将需 要在未来五年内投入约 1.5 万亿美元的投资级债券资金，同时还需要从市场上的其他各个领域获得大量 资金支持。 据Tarek Hamid领导的策略师团队所言："问题不在于'哪个市场会为人工智能热潮提供资金?'而是'如何 设计融资方案以覆盖所有资本市场?'" 数据中心的需求——分析师们表示，这一需求仅会受到诸如计算资源、房地产和能源等物理因素的限制 ——在近几个月里呈直线式增长，完全打破了部分市场观察人士对于泡沫形成的担忧。上个月，Meta (META.US)发行了 300 亿美元的债券，创下了高评级债券市场史上最大订单量的纪录，而上周投资者又 准备向甲骨文(ORCL.US)支付 180 亿美元以资助一个数据中心园区的建设。 尽管分析师们估计，未来五年扩张所需的资金数额惊人，但他们警告称，前进的道路不会仅仅是"向上 且向右发展"。他们最大的担忧是会重蹈 20 世纪 90 年代末至 21 世纪初围绕电信和光纤网络所形成的泡 沫的覆辙，当时产能过剩导致大量违约事件发生，并使许多过高的估值一落千丈。 最近几周，有关投资者对数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week (from November 3rd to November 7th, 2025), the bond market experienced volatile adjustments. The yields of 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased. The central bank's bond purchase in October was less than expected, and the strong and volatile stock market led to a slight decline in bond market sentiment. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and its short - term volatility direction may be affected by the stock market trend. The yields of US treasury bonds fluctuated downward, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index declined. The scale of bond ETFs exceeded 70 billion yuan [3][10][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market in China**: Last week, the bond market in China adjusted with fluctuations. The yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 2.19BP, 1.88BP, and 1.50BP respectively. The central bank's 20 billion yuan bond purchase in October was less than expected, and the strong stock market led to a slight decline in bond market sentiment. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and its short - term direction may be affected by the stock market [3][10]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Last week, the yields of US treasury bonds fluctuated downward. The 1 - year yield dropped 7BP to 3.63%, the 2 - year yield dropped 5BP to 3.55%, and the 10 - year yield remained flat at 4.11%. There were both negative and positive factors during the week [10]. - **REITs**: Last week, the China Securities REITs Total Return Index dropped 0.40% to 1041.51 points. The park and warehousing logistics sectors led the decline, while the consumption and data center sectors had relatively high gains. In the primary market, 3 new public REITs made progress last week [11]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The scale of bond ETFs exceeded 70 billion yuan. As of October 31, 2025, the scale of bond ETFs reached 70.0044 billion yuan. At the beginning of 2025, it was less than 18 billion yuan. Among the 53 bond ETFs in the market, 50 had a scale of over 1 billion yuan, and 30 had a scale of over 10 billion yuan [12]. 2. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Currency Enhancement Index Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Strategy Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money market funds and rises smoothly. It mainly allocates money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance comparison benchmark is the China Securities Money Fund Index [14]. 2.2. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It mainly configures 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance comparison benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [17]. - **Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: It invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects funds with both return and drawdown control capabilities, and adjusts the proportion of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [19]. 2.3. Fixed - income + Index Tracking - **Low - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + targets with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 10% China Securities 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [20][23]. - **Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 20% China Securities 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [25]. - **High - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 30% China Securities 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [27][28]. 2.4. Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index - It selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment proportion of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions and selects 5 funds to form the index [29]. 2.5. QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control according to credit and duration to form the index [32]. 2.6. REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of REITs are mainly high - quality and stable infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity according to the underlying asset type to form the index [33].