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金融工程周报:有色金属ETF收益反弹-20250630
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 13:40
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆ [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy led the gains in the past week, while the ordinary stock strategy index in the equity strategy was relatively weak. The net value of non-ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent. The style timing signal currently favors the growth style, and the style timing strategy had an excess return compared to the benchmark [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - As of the week ending on June 27, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 3.35%, -0.10%, and -2.00% respectively [4] - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy had a weekly return of 3.18%. Among equity strategies, the ordinary stock strategy index was relatively weak, and neutral strategy products had more losses than gains. In the bond market, medium - and long - term pure bonds had a small pullback, and convertible bonds outperformed pure bonds. In the commodity market, the returns of energy - chemical and soybean meal ETFs pulled back, the net value of non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent, with silver ETFs rising slightly and gold ETFs continuing to weaken [4] Equity Market Style - In the CITIC Five - Style, all style indices closed up last Friday, with the growth and financial styles leading. In terms of relative strength, consumption and stability were at a relatively low level, and in terms of indicator momentum, all five styles strengthened compared to the previous week, with consumption and stability having a large increase [4] - In the public fund pool, the average returns of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 0.60% and 0.06% respectively. Some growth - style funds shifted towards cycle and consumption styles [4] - In terms of crowding, consumption fell from a high - crowding range to a neutral range, the cycle style increased significantly, and the growth style was in a historically low - crowding range [4] Barra Factors - In the past week, the growth, liquidity, and momentum factors had better returns, the excess return of the profitability factor was compressed, the return of the volatility factor continued to decline, the dividend factor continued to weaken in terms of winning rate, and the momentum and residual volatility factors rebounded [4] - The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors decreased compared to the previous week and was currently in a historically low - quantile range [4] Style Timing - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened slightly this week, while consumption and growth recovered, and the current signal favored the growth style [4] - The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.41%, with an excess return of 0.63% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4]