来源：兴证策略 拥挤度是兴证策略团队独家构建的反映热门赛道交易情绪的重要指标，由量能、价格、资金、分析师预测四大维度、七大指标合成而来，量化跟踪市场情 绪变化，对于股价短期走势有较强指示意义。 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/29-2025/12/31 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/5-2025/12/31 整体来看， 前期市场呈现由部分主题引领上涨的格局，赚钱效应集中在少数板块，因此当前虽然部分主题驱动的板块拥挤度已至高位，而大多数板块拥 挤度仍在中等或偏低水平，仍有较多机会可挖。 一、TMT 1、光模块：拥挤度中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2、服务器：拥挤度水平中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3、基站：拥挤度水平中等偏高 4、光纤光缆：拥挤度水平较高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 5、IDC：拥挤度水平中等 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 6、计算机设备：拥挤度水平中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since October 2025, price increases have gained attention, particularly in the fields of new energy, AI, and certain black, non-ferrous, and chemical products, with many areas experiencing transaction congestion close to historically high levels [4][10][12] - Historical cases indicate that price increases driven solely by sentiment or expectations typically reach a peak when congestion levels hit 90-100%, leading to a phase of adjustment, and subsequent rebounds are unlikely to surpass previous highs without additional supporting logic [14][16] - For price increases to break previous highs after an adjustment, they usually require new incremental logic support, such as a shift from expectation to reality in economic verification or the emergence of new catalysts [14][16] Group 2 - The report identifies two main areas where price increases are likely to continue: industrial metals, driven by global economic recovery expectations and supply constraints, and the AI chain, which remains a direction with confirmed economic prospects and potential incremental catalysts [51][52] - Strong sectors often reach a stage of congestion bottom when sentiment (transaction share) declines to 50-70% of previous highs, presenting a good buying opportunity [52] - The report suggests monitoring the TMT sector's transaction share to determine when it returns to the 20-25% range, indicating a potential buying point, while the Hang Seng Technology sector should be observed for a return to the 30-35% range [60][66] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical adjustment patterns of major technology sectors, noting that the average adjustment period is around 40 trading days, with an average absolute decline of approximately 15% [71][72] - The current adjustment in major technology sectors has seen declines of 15-20%, nearing historical averages, but the adjustment duration has been shorter than the historical average, suggesting a need for patience [71][72] - The report recommends continuing to allocate resources according to calendar effects, particularly in banking and white goods, while observing potential shifts in growth styles as economic data is released [71][72]

Core Points - The CSI A500 Index experienced a decline of 4.27% this week, closing at 5325.99 points as of November 21 [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 6047.97 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.94% compared to the previous week [6] - All 40 CSI A500 funds saw a decline, with losses exceeding 3%, indicating a broad market downturn [6] Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index closed at 5325.99 points, down 4.27% for the week [2][6] - The total trading volume for the week was 30239.84 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6047.97 billion yuan [2][6] Top Performers - The top gainers for the week included: - Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) with a gain of 31.77% - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058.SZ) with a gain of 20.18% - Tongcheng New Materials (603650.SH) with a gain of 14.75% [4] Bottom Performers - The top losers for the week included: - Defang Nano (300769.SZ) with a loss of 19.27% - New Zhongbang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 17.98% - Goodwe (688390.SH) with a loss of 17.59% [4] Fund Performance - The total scale of CSI A500 funds has fallen below 200 billion yuan, currently at 1920.64 billion yuan [6] - The largest funds by scale include: - Huatai-PB A500 ETF with 256.97 billion yuan - E Fund A500 ETF with 226.45 billion yuan - Guotai Fund's CSI A500 ETF with 212.14 billion yuan [6] Market Analysis - According to Huaxin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external factors such as the rising US dollar index and internal factors like profit-taking in technology stocks [7] - The report indicates that while there are signals for a short-term adjustment, the bull market is still in its mid-stage, awaiting further capital inflows from residents, public funds, and foreign investments [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industry rotation in the A-share market, indicating a shift from sustained single-line trends to rapid sector changes, with the industry rotation index showing increased activity since 2023 [13][14] - It emphasizes the scarcity of fundamentally strong investment opportunities, suggesting that while growth investment remains relevant, the range of viable options has significantly narrowed compared to the past two decades [20][19] - The report identifies the importance of "crowding" and "calendar effects" as tools for navigating the current market dynamics, with a focus on how these metrics can guide investment strategies [37][38] Group 1: Industry Rotation Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a notable increase in industry rotation speed, with the duration of dominant trends decreasing from 6-12 months in previous years to approximately 2 months in 2023 [13][14] - The report outlines that the current market environment is characterized by a blend of "extreme rotation" and "absolute low volatility," where thematic investments and stable fundamental assets coexist [4][5] - The report provides a comparative analysis of industry performance, indicating that sectors such as military, robotics, and software are expected to benefit from low crowding and catalysts in the near term [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - For active funds, the report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth trends and catalysts, particularly in the context of the upcoming quarterly reports [6] - It recommends maintaining positions in sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while also noting the potential for increased allocations in dividend-paying sectors such as banks and home appliances as the year-end approaches [6] - The report highlights the significance of calendar effects, suggesting that both active and long-term investors may find opportunities for positioning in the market during specific periods [5][6]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a "big opening and big closing" characteristic in October, with significant structural differentiation, where technology growth sectors are under pressure while low valuation high dividend sectors and policy-driven themes are alternatingly active [1][2][3] Market Performance - Private equity institutions believe that the overall market performance in October aligns with expectations, indicating a specific environment where economic expectations are uncertain but market risk appetite is rising [2] - Despite adjustments in previously strong sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, daily trading volume remains high, and major indices show strong resilience [2] Structural Characteristics - The market is experiencing a notable divergence between technology growth and low valuation sectors, reflecting complex and changing market sentiment [2][3] - The shift in market style from growth to "value + policy dividend sectors" is evident, with main funds flowing out of certain tech stocks while benefiting low valuation and policy-driven sectors [3][6] Investment Strategies - Institutions emphasize the importance of maintaining flexibility and balance in investment strategies, especially in light of the significant market gains accumulated this year and the potentially complex macro environment [4][6] - The focus is on identifying structural opportunities while being cautious of high valuation sectors, with an emphasis on fundamental stock selection [4][6] Market Sentiment and Opportunities - The crowdedness of technology growth and small-cap stocks is a key concern, with accurate judgment on this crowdedness being crucial for risk control [5][6] - Despite high valuations, sectors like artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, and new energy are expected to remain in a favorable cycle, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the "crowding degree" as an important indicator reflecting trading sentiment in popular sectors, constructed by combining four dimensions: volume, price, funds, and analyst forecasts, which quantitatively track market sentiment changes and have strong indicative significance for short-term stock price trends [1]. TMT Sector - Optical modules: Crowding degree is moderately high [6] - Servers: Crowding degree is moderately high [9] - Base stations: Crowding degree is moderately high [11] - Optical fiber and cables: Crowding degree is moderately high [12] - IDC: Crowding degree is moderate [12] - Computer equipment: Crowding degree is moderately low [15] - Optical components: Crowding degree is moderately high [15] - RF components: Crowding degree is moderately high [19] - PCB: Crowding degree is moderate [20] - State-owned cloud: Crowding degree is moderately low [23] - IT services: Crowding degree is low [23] - Financial IT: Crowding degree is low [26] - Internet of Things: Crowding degree is moderate [26] - Semiconductor equipment: Crowding degree is high [30] - Semiconductor materials: Crowding degree is moderately high [31] - Semiconductor packaging and testing: Crowding degree is high [33] - Semiconductor design: Crowding degree is moderately high [33] - Semiconductor manufacturing: Crowding degree is moderately high [37] - Semiconductor discrete devices: Crowding degree is moderately high [37] - Memory: Crowding degree is high [42] - Consumer electronics: Crowding degree is moderately high [44] - Smart driving: Crowding degree is moderate [44] - Gaming: Crowding degree is moderately low [48] - Digital media: Crowding degree is moderately low [50] - Operators: Crowding degree is low [52] Manufacturing Sector - Auto parts: Crowding degree is moderately high [55] - Passenger cars: Crowding degree is moderately high [57] - Lithium batteries: Crowding degree is moderately high [59] - Hydrogen energy: Crowding degree is moderately high [59] - Energy storage: Crowding degree is moderately high [62] - Wind power: Crowding degree is moderately high [62] - Smart grid: Crowding degree is moderately high [65] - Photovoltaic inverters: Crowding degree is moderately high [65] - Photovoltaic cells: Crowding degree is moderately high [69] - Photovoltaic modules: Crowding degree is moderate [69] - Silicon materials and wafers: Crowding degree is moderately high [73] - Industrial robots: Crowding degree is moderately high [73] - Shipbuilding: Crowding degree is low [77] - Drones: Crowding degree is moderately low [77] - Aircraft engines: Crowding degree is low [82] Consumer and Pharmaceutical Sector - White goods: Crowding degree is moderately low [83] - Baijiu: Crowding degree is low [86] - Textiles and apparel: Crowding degree is moderate [88] - Hotel and catering: Crowding degree is moderate [90] - Tourism and scenic spots: Crowding degree is moderately high [90] - Air transport: Crowding degree is moderately high [94] - Pig industry: Crowding degree is moderate [94] - Innovative drugs: Crowding degree is low [97] - Traditional Chinese medicine: Crowding degree is low [99] - Medical services: Crowding degree is low [101] Financial and Real Estate Sector - Real estate: Crowding degree is moderately high [51] - Banking: Crowding degree is low [105] - Insurance: Crowding degree is low [105] - Securities: Crowding degree is moderately low [105] Cyclical Sector - Coal: Crowding degree is high [55] - Steel: Crowding degree is low [111] - Oil and petrochemicals: Crowding degree is moderately low [112] - Thermal power: Crowding degree is moderately low [113] - Industrial metals: Crowding degree is moderate [113] - Chemical raw materials: Crowding degree is moderately low [118]

Core Insights - The report highlights that a high level of crowding in sectors may indicate a peak in short-term sentiment, leading to potential downward adjustments in those sectors [2][6] - It emphasizes that sectors supported by industrial trends or strong policy backing are likely to recover and achieve excess returns after a period of emotional digestion [2][6] Market Review - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the overall A-share market rose by 2.65%, with significant performance from sectors like hydropower and rare earths [2][78] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.8398 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [2][78] - The report also mentions a notable increase in the number of stocks rising, with 2,941 stocks up compared to the previous week [2][78] Key Themes - **Childcare Subsidies**: The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stabilize birth rates and positively impact sectors such as maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction [3][95] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses the government's efforts to eliminate excessive competition, which is anticipated to lead to an orderly exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [3][98] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report highlights that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by favorable policies [3][101] Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at optimizing state-owned asset allocation and promoting high-quality urban development [3][104] - It mentions the emphasis on improving the quality of competition in various industries, particularly in sectors facing issues with low-price competition [3][98] Industry Trends - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report notes advancements in AI technology, including the launch of new AI products and participation in global AI governance discussions [3][104] - **Robotics**: The introduction of new robotic products is highlighted, indicating growth in the robotics sector [3][104] - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The report states that the approval of innovative drugs has significantly increased, with 43 new drugs approved in the first half of the year, marking a 59% year-on-year increase [3][104]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆ [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy led the gains in the past week, while the ordinary stock strategy index in the equity strategy was relatively weak. The net value of non-ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent. The style timing signal currently favors the growth style, and the style timing strategy had an excess return compared to the benchmark [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - As of the week ending on June 27, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 3.35%, -0.10%, and -2.00% respectively [4] - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy had a weekly return of 3.18%. Among equity strategies, the ordinary stock strategy index was relatively weak, and neutral strategy products had more losses than gains. In the bond market, medium - and long - term pure bonds had a small pullback, and convertible bonds outperformed pure bonds. In the commodity market, the returns of energy - chemical and soybean meal ETFs pulled back, the net value of non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent, with silver ETFs rising slightly and gold ETFs continuing to weaken [4] Equity Market Style - In the CITIC Five - Style, all style indices closed up last Friday, with the growth and financial styles leading. In terms of relative strength, consumption and stability were at a relatively low level, and in terms of indicator momentum, all five styles strengthened compared to the previous week, with consumption and stability having a large increase [4] - In the public fund pool, the average returns of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 0.60% and 0.06% respectively. Some growth - style funds shifted towards cycle and consumption styles [4] - In terms of crowding, consumption fell from a high - crowding range to a neutral range, the cycle style increased significantly, and the growth style was in a historically low - crowding range [4] Barra Factors - In the past week, the growth, liquidity, and momentum factors had better returns, the excess return of the profitability factor was compressed, the return of the volatility factor continued to decline, the dividend factor continued to weaken in terms of winning rate, and the momentum and residual volatility factors rebounded [4] - The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors decreased compared to the previous week and was currently in a historically low - quantile range [4] Style Timing - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened slightly this week, while consumption and growth recovered, and the current signal favored the growth style [4] - The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.41%, with an excess return of 0.63% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4]

- The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" issued multiple bullish signals for the TMT sector, indicating potential opportunities based on low-frequency thermometer metrics and crowding levels. The TMT sector remains at a relatively low position compared to the market, with slight upward movement after hitting a two-year low at the end of May[6][13] - Specific industries highlighted by the "Four-Wheel Drive Model" include electronics, computers, media, non-bank financials, food and beverages, textiles and apparel, communications, machinery, and military industries, all showing potential opportunities based on recent signals and market dynamics[6][13] - The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" uses metrics such as Sharpe ratio rankings and signal dates to identify potential opportunities in various industries, with recent signals indicating upward trends or crowding effects in sectors like electronics and media[13]

- The report introduces the **Industry Basic Tracking Model**, which monitors industry fundamentals and identifies the top-performing industries based on their sentiment and activity levels. The model highlights transportation, food & beverage, and coal as the industries with the highest sentiment, while media, communication, and banking show lower sentiment levels[3][8][9] - The **Crowding Factor** is introduced to measure the disparity between leading and lagging stocks within an industry across three dimensions: volatility, liquidity, and systemic risk. Higher crowding factors indicate elevated risks such as high volatility, active trading turnover, or increased beta exposure. For example, the food & beverage industry shows historically high crowding factors, while industries like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, machinery, consumer services, and coal exhibit historically low crowding factors[3][17][18] - The **Crowding Factor** is calculated using metrics such as stock volatility, liquidity, and beta exposure. It reflects the degree of market concentration and trading activity within an industry. Higher values suggest speculative trading and heightened systemic risk, while lower values indicate reduced market activity and risk exposure[17][18][28] - The pharmaceutical industry demonstrates a divergence between sentiment and crowding factors, with sentiment decreasing by 0.06 and crowding factors increasing by 0.28. This is attributed to short-term policy benefits, event-driven catalysts, and market sentiment, despite the lack of comprehensive recovery in industry fundamentals[12][15][17] - The report emphasizes that industries with high crowding factors, such as food & beverage, may face risks of speculative trading and systemic volatility. Conversely, industries with low crowding factors, such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, machinery, consumer services, and coal, may present opportunities for stable investment due to reduced speculative activity[17][18][28]