Core Insights - The report highlights that a high level of crowding in sectors may indicate a peak in short-term sentiment, leading to potential downward adjustments in those sectors [2][6] - It emphasizes that sectors supported by industrial trends or strong policy backing are likely to recover and achieve excess returns after a period of emotional digestion [2][6] Market Review - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the overall A-share market rose by 2.65%, with significant performance from sectors like hydropower and rare earths [2][78] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.8398 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [2][78] - The report also mentions a notable increase in the number of stocks rising, with 2,941 stocks up compared to the previous week [2][78] Key Themes - **Childcare Subsidies**: The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stabilize birth rates and positively impact sectors such as maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction [3][95] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses the government's efforts to eliminate excessive competition, which is anticipated to lead to an orderly exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [3][98] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report highlights that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by favorable policies [3][101] Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at optimizing state-owned asset allocation and promoting high-quality urban development [3][104] - It mentions the emphasis on improving the quality of competition in various industries, particularly in sectors facing issues with low-price competition [3][98] Industry Trends - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report notes advancements in AI technology, including the launch of new AI products and participation in global AI governance discussions [3][104] - **Robotics**: The introduction of new robotic products is highlighted, indicating growth in the robotics sector [3][104] - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The report states that the approval of innovative drugs has significantly increased, with 43 new drugs approved in the first half of the year, marking a 59% year-on-year increase [3][104]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆ [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy led the gains in the past week, while the ordinary stock strategy index in the equity strategy was relatively weak. The net value of non-ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent. The style timing signal currently favors the growth style, and the style timing strategy had an excess return compared to the benchmark [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - As of the week ending on June 27, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 3.35%, -0.10%, and -2.00% respectively [4] - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy had a weekly return of 3.18%. Among equity strategies, the ordinary stock strategy index was relatively weak, and neutral strategy products had more losses than gains. In the bond market, medium - and long - term pure bonds had a small pullback, and convertible bonds outperformed pure bonds. In the commodity market, the returns of energy - chemical and soybean meal ETFs pulled back, the net value of non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and the performance of precious metal ETFs was divergent, with silver ETFs rising slightly and gold ETFs continuing to weaken [4] Equity Market Style - In the CITIC Five - Style, all style indices closed up last Friday, with the growth and financial styles leading. In terms of relative strength, consumption and stability were at a relatively low level, and in terms of indicator momentum, all five styles strengthened compared to the previous week, with consumption and stability having a large increase [4] - In the public fund pool, the average returns of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 0.60% and 0.06% respectively. Some growth - style funds shifted towards cycle and consumption styles [4] - In terms of crowding, consumption fell from a high - crowding range to a neutral range, the cycle style increased significantly, and the growth style was in a historically low - crowding range [4] Barra Factors - In the past week, the growth, liquidity, and momentum factors had better returns, the excess return of the profitability factor was compressed, the return of the volatility factor continued to decline, the dividend factor continued to weaken in terms of winning rate, and the momentum and residual volatility factors rebounded [4] - The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors decreased compared to the previous week and was currently in a historically low - quantile range [4] Style Timing - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened slightly this week, while consumption and growth recovered, and the current signal favored the growth style [4] - The return of the style timing strategy last week was 3.41%, with an excess return of 0.63% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 正如上周所述，当前市场走势比 2024 年 6 月要强一些，结构上可以 考虑在均衡的基础上偏向低吸科技板块，目前来看基本符合预期。 上周市场表现相对较强，上证则是再度形成了向上一笔，有挑战 5 月 高点的迹象。但在有效突破 5 月高点之前，上证也有可能因存在日线 顶背离的压制而出现调整的可能性。因此，我们当下维持市场震荡偏 强的判断，但将密切关注在前高附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹 象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那么后续或将迎来真正的调整。 上周四盘后，我们的四轮驱动模型再次发出 TMT 方向的多个看多信 号。从相对于市场的低频温度计角度看，目前 TMT 板块仍处于相对低 位；而从拥挤度的角度看，TMT 板块在 5 月底下探两年来的低点之后， 又有再度小幅上行的迹象。这两个因素或使得至少未来一两周内 TMT 是一个值得认真关注的方向。 具体而言，行业上，除了电子、计算机、传媒等板块外，还可以关注 非银、食品饮料、纺织服饰、通信、机械、军工等板块的机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构 ...

【中泰金工】市场整体情绪修复，传统行业走强而科技承压 ——行业轮动全景观察（2025.06） 分析师：李倩云 执业证书编号：S0740520050001 Email：liqy02@zts.com.cn 分析师：熊婧妍 执业证书编号：S0740523110005 Email：xiongjy01@zts.com.cn 全景观察（2025.05）》2025-05-05 2、《【中泰金工】资源型行业拥挤 （2025.04）》2025-04-02 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2025 年 06 月 04 日 报告摘要 风险提示：结论基于公开的历史数据进行统计、测算，文中部分数据有一定滞后性，同时 存在第三方数据提供不准确风险；对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分析结论并不预示其未 来表现，也不能保证未来的可持续性，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议；产品的表现 受宏观环境、行业基本面超预期变动、市场波动、风格转换等多重因素影响，存在一定波 动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 行业月度收益：本月 A 股市场在超长期特别国债发行、LPR 降息预期等政策及内需复 苏（"五一"消费数据超预期）推动下结束调整，主要指数震荡上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of considering multiple trading factors in industry comparisons, as relying solely on a single factor may not yield long-term success [2][3]. Trading Factors Worth Noting - Stock prices do not always reflect fundamentals, making trading factors crucial to avoid the risk of "correct logic but poor timing" [3]. - Momentum is highlighted as a key factor, indicating potential industry benefits; industries with positive momentum are likely to perform better in the future [3]. - Turnover rate serves as a measure of how well stock prices reflect positive news; industries with low turnover rates tend to perform better than those with high turnover rates [3]. - Trading congestion is identified as a risk aversion indicator; higher congestion levels often correlate with poorer industry performance [4]. Industry Comparison Scoring Logic - A scoring system based on trading factors is proposed, focusing on industries with potential benefits that are not fully reflected in stock prices and are not overcrowded in trading [5]. - Historical data from February 2014 to January 2025 shows that industries with higher scores yield better performance, with annualized returns of 11.5% for the highest scoring group compared to 0.3% for the lowest [5]. Long/Short Strategy Performance - A long/short strategy, holding the highest scoring industries while shorting the lowest, achieved an annualized return of 10.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.75 from February 2014 to January 2025, indicating the effectiveness of the trading factor scoring system [7].