Report Date - The report was published on March 30, 2026 [1] Report Title - The report is titled "Upstream Production Increase and Inventory Reduction, Double Coking Coal and Coke at High-Level Volatility" [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report Core Views - Downstream: Last week, blast furnace复产 accelerated, molten iron production continued to increase, and raw material demand was good. Steel mills maintained coke production. Although in-plant inventory increased, the available days of coke changed little [3][7] - Middle stream: Due to the price increase of coking coal, coking profit declined but remained in a good profit state. Coking enterprises were actively operating. Although coke production increased significantly, downstream purchasing was strong, and inventory continued to decline. The national average profit per ton of coke was +21 (compared to the previous week, -17) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 74.86% (+0.55); the daily average coke production was 64.76 (+0.52) tons, and the coke inventory was 90.05 (-4.18) tons [3][8] - Upstream: Domestic coal mines were operating well, production increased compared to the previous week, sales were smooth, and inventory decreased. Last week, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.2%, a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The daily average raw coal production was 198.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2 tons; the raw coal inventory was 523 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 tons; the daily average clean coal production was 78.6 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.2 tons; the clean coal inventory was 222.8 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 31.3 tons [3][8] - Overall: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, the spot market sentiment was good, and the price increase expectation of coal and coke was strong. Upstream coal mine production increased steadily, the production rhythm of coking enterprises accelerated. Driven by the recovery of downstream demand, the shipment speed of double coking coal and coke increased, and upstream inventory decreased. Downstream blast furnace molten iron production continued to recover, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory increased. Driven by demand, upstream production increased and inventory decreased. Supported by the fundamentals, it is expected that double coking coal and coke will maintain a high-level volatile trend [3][9] Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3124 | 1 | 0.03 | 4322964 | 2309613 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot Rolled Coil | 3299 | 2 | 0.06 | 1468357 | 962265 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 817.0 | 1.5 | 0.18 | 1078183 | 408026 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1219.0 | 48.0 | 4.10 | 7330872 | 669897 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1752.0 | 11.5 | 0.66 | 148101 | 46589 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - Last week, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated upward. Supply and demand both increased, the interference from the overseas Middle East situation increased, and the spot market sentiment was good [7] - Downstream: Last week, blast furnace复产 accelerated, molten iron production continued to increase, and raw material demand was good. Steel mills maintained coke production. Although in-plant inventory increased, the available days of coke changed little. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points compared to the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the daily average molten iron production was 231.09 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 6.19 tons compared to the same period last year. The daily average coke production was 47.28 (compared to the previous week, -0.03) tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.4% (+0.06). The coke inventory was 691.67 (+3.49) tons, and the available days of coke were 12.75 days [7] - Middle stream: Due to the price increase of coking coal, coking profit declined but remained in a good profit state. Coking enterprises were actively operating. Although coke production increased significantly, downstream purchasing was strong, and inventory continued to decline. The national average profit per ton of coke was +21 (compared to the previous week, -17) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 74.86% (+0.55); the daily average coke production was 64.76 (+0.52) tons, and the coke inventory was 90.05 (-4.18) tons [8] - Upstream coal mines: Domestic coal mines were operating well, production increased compared to the previous week, sales were smooth, and inventory decreased. Last week, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.2%, a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The daily average raw coal production was 198.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2 tons; the raw coal inventory was 523 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 tons; the daily average clean coal production was 78.6 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.2 tons; the clean coal inventory was 222.8 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 31.3 tons [8] - Port inventory: The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports across the country was 478.10 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports across the country was 289.51 tons, an increase of 20.88 tons [8] - Overall: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, the spot market sentiment was good, and the price increase expectation of coal and coke was strong. Upstream coal mine production increased steadily, the production rhythm of coking enterprises accelerated. Driven by the recovery of downstream demand, the shipment speed of double coking coal and coke increased, and upstream inventory decreased. Downstream blast furnace molten iron production continued to recover, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory increased. Driven by demand, upstream production increased and inventory decreased. Supported by the fundamentals, it is expected that double coking coal and coke will maintain a high-level volatile trend [9] Industry News - US President Trump said that the US had "strong" talks with Iran and had formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. Trump said that the US was in consultation with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and the US and Iran "might reach an agreement within 5 days or even less time." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's relevant statements were aimed at reducing energy prices and buying time for military operations [10] - The US government proposed a 15-point conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. It is understood that the US is considering promoting a one-month ceasefire to conduct further negotiations on the above terms [10] - US President Trump said that the attack on Iranian energy facilities would be postponed for another 10 days until 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Trump also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing, insisting that it was Iran that sought to restart negotiations [10] - Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. A variety of monetary policy tools such as the deposit reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and open market operations would be comprehensively used to maintain sufficient liquidity [10] - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on the Khuzestan Steel Plant and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan, Iran. The power plant supporting the Mobarakeh Steel Plant was also attacked. It is expected that a rigid supply gap of 5-5.5 million tons per year will be formed in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in the three categories of plates, billets, and long products [10] - On March 28, two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked. The plant of Bahrain Aluminium Company was attacked by Iran, and property losses were being evaluated. Emirates Global Aluminium, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, was also attacked by Iran. It is understood that the aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of the global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market [10] - US Vice President Vance said that the US had no intention of staying in Iran and would withdraw soon after handling current affairs [10] - The US military's rapid victory plan for ground warfare in a few weeks was exposed. The Pentagon has launched a "sharp knife beheading" tactic, aiming at the oil lifeline of Iran, Kharg Island, without occupying territory or waging a long-term war, in an attempt to replicate the "42-day defeat of Iraq" myth [10] Related Charts - The report includes 22 charts, covering the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, daily average production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, coke available days, ton coke profit, and monthly spread seasonal trends [12][13][14]