2025 年 12 月 31 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 短纤：今日短纤期货偏强震荡，现货方面今日工厂报价维稳，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6650~6700 区间。期 货上涨，贸易商及期现商部分维持，部分优惠缩小，成交量依旧偏少，半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6500~6650 区间，下游按需采购。今日直纺涤短销售大多一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 55%，部分工厂产销：50%、 70%、70%、0%、50%、30%、40%、80%、66%，30%。 瓶片：上游原料震荡收涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交气氛小幅回升。12-2 月订 单多成交在 6000-6100 元/吨出厂不等，局部少量略低 5960-5980 元/吨出厂，品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：高位震荡 20251231 瓶片：高位震荡 20251231 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **U.S. Stocks**: Over the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -3.04%, -1.63%, and -1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -3.39% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 1.29% during the same period [2] - **A - shares**: The wind All - A Index changed by 0.63%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.94%, 0.82%, -0.04%, 0.47%, 0.88%, and 3.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, most indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.79%. Among 30 Citic industries, 17 industries rose and 13 fell, with electric power and new energy, steel, petrochemicals, coal, and basic chemicals leading the gains with weekly increases of over 3.0%. Grid equipment, photovoltaic, carbon neutrality, new energy, coal, environmental protection, and Hong Kong stock dividend ETFs led with weekly increases of over 4% [3] Bond Market - **Chinese Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.22% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 1.88 BP to 1.8142%. Yields of all maturity varieties increased, and the yield curve shifted upward [4] - **Funding and Leverage**: As of November 7, 2025, R007 was 1.4677%, down 2.46 BP from October 31, 2025; DR007 was 1.4130%, down 4.21 BP, and the spread between them widened. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan in the past week. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume increasing from 6.70 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025, to 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025 [5][7] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), long - term U.S. Treasury bond yields rose while short - term yields fell. As of November 7, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.11% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [8] Currency and Commodity Markets - **Exchange Rates**: The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.18% in the past week (20251103 - 20251109), and the U.S. dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The U.S. dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB increased slightly [9] - **Gold Prices**: Gold prices continued to fall in the past week (20251103 - 20251109). London gold spot prices decreased by 0.43% to $3994.10 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.01% to $3995.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai gold spot down 0.38% to 918.03 yuan per gram and futures down 0.16% to 919.02 yuan per gram [10] Outlook and Recommendations - **A - shares**: A - shares are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as electric power and new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemicals, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence [11] - **Bond Market**: High risk appetite is not conducive to the bond market, but the high absolute yield has long - term allocation value [11] - **Gold**: Although the long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, there is a lack of short - term catalysts for growth, and it is likely to decline slightly or move sideways [11]

Group 1 - The recent trading session saw a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of $115, reaching a low of 3945, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations for future upward movement [4][5] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a bullish outlook, particularly around support levels of 902 for domestic gold and 896 for futures contracts [5][6] Group 2 - International silver experienced extreme fluctuations, with a high of 51.5 and a low of 48.5, but the overall trend remains bullish, with support at 49.5 [6] - The outlook for crude oil indicates a potential short-term consolidation phase, with a current price around 61.5, while maintaining a long-term bearish view [6][7] - Domestic fuel oil is in a quiet period with limited price movement, suggesting a wait-and-see approach unless it reaches key support levels [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend with high-level fluctuations, maintaining strong support at 3715 despite a recent drop to around 3722 [1][2] - The recent high point for gold reached 3792, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, and the market is not expected to peak at 3800 [2] - Traders are advised to wait for pullbacks to key support levels, such as 3750 and 3715, before entering long positions to maximize profits [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver prices have reached a new high of 45.2, with a strong upward trend, but traders are cautioned against chasing prices at this level [3] - Support for silver is identified at 44.5, and if prices pull back to this level, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing upward movement, with a focus on maintaining positions without attempting to short the market [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil prices are on the rise, with a temporary high of 65.2, and traders are advised to take profits on long positions if prices reach 66 [4] - The domestic fuel oil market has shown significant gains, reaching around 2960, with a target of 3000 in sight [4] - Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as the market approaches the 3000 target, with a focus on maintaining bullish sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that after recent adjustments, there is still potential for upward movement, but caution is advised against chasing prices too aggressively [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently in a bullish trend, with recent adjustments showing a low of 3717 and a high of 3780, indicating a potential trading range for the day [5]. - The article suggests that traders should wait for pullbacks to key support levels (3715 and 3680) before entering long positions, rather than chasing highs [5][6]. - The technical indicators show a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands tightening and moving averages converging, suggesting a period of high-level fluctuation [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 44.5, with current support at 43.5. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests monitoring the support level for potential rebounds [7]. - If silver holds above 43.5, there may be opportunities for long positions, but a break below this level could indicate a further decline [7]. Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil prices have risen to a high of 45, with a target of 66 for the week. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests holding onto profitable positions [8]. - Domestic fuel oil has also seen an increase, currently around 2915, with a target of 3000. Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as they approach this target [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3657.90 per ounce, experiencing narrow fluctuations [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points was initially seen as a positive for gold, but the ambiguous statements from Chairman Powell cooled expectations for aggressive future cuts [2] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have put additional pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index increasing by 0.4% to 97.347 [2] - Gold's recent trading range has been between $3633 and $3672, with a notable two consecutive daily declines for the first time since the rise from $3311 [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at $3615 and $3672, respectively, with a bullish trend expected to continue after a mid-term adjustment [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have slightly decreased to $67.43, while WTI futures are at $63.53, with both benchmarks expected to record a second consecutive week of increases [6] - The unexpected increase of 4 million barrels in U.S. distillate inventories has raised concerns about demand, countering the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut [6] - The oil market is currently facing a "dual game," balancing the Fed's easing policies against rising inventory data and weak macroeconomic indicators [6] - Short-term oil price trends are characterized by a weak and volatile consolidation pattern, with key support at $62.30 and resistance between $64.0 and $65.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the bullish trend for gold remains intact despite significant adjustments, indicating a high-level consolidation within a bullish trend [2][4] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3615 and 3672, respectively, with the market expected to maintain a bullish trend as long as it stays above 3615 [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold saw a decline from 3707 to 3628, a drop of nearly 80 USD, but the overall outlook remains positive due to global geopolitical instability and poor economic conditions [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading strategies suggest exiting all long positions before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with specific price levels for potential long positions set at 830 and 820 [3] - The Shanghai gold market is projected to see upward movement towards 840, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the trend remains unchanged [3] Group 3 - The silver market is also in a bullish trend, with key levels to watch at 41 and 40.5, indicating potential for further upward movement if these levels hold [5] - The domestic silver market has shown resilience, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the support level at 9700 is not broken [5] Group 4 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern between 64.6 and 63.3, with no significant price movements observed [6] - Domestic fuel oil is expected to have upward potential, with a focus on buying opportunities around 2750, while monitoring resistance levels at 2850 and 3000 [6]

Group 1 - Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, but attention is needed for potential strength conversion on Thursday, with support levels at 3375 and 3350 [4][5] - The trading range for gold on Wednesday was between 3393 and 3373, with a peak at around 3400 during the US session, aligning with expectations [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the daily cycle is nearing its peak, and if the daily candle closes bearish, a strong weakness conversion is likely, potentially leading to a drop to 3350 [5][6] Group 2 - Silver experienced a decline but maintained a bullish trend, with a trading range between 39 and 38; a drop below 38 could lead to further declines [6] - The domestic gold market remains strong, with the Shanghai gold contract holding around 785 and the Rongtong gold contract around 778, indicating potential for further gains if they stay above 780 and 772 respectively [5][6] - The international crude oil market showed an upward trend, with a support level at 62.5 and a peak at 64.2, suggesting continued bullish momentum [6][7]