姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 期货研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2292 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2248 元/吨，收盘时略微收低 0.88%至 2249 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 38 元/吨。中东地缘风险升温博弈国内甲醇供应压力增大，预计后 市甲醇期货或维持震荡整理的走势。 原油：本周三国内原油期货 2604 合约呈现放量增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **豆粕期货**: The soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Brazil's soybean harvest is abundant and gradually hitting the market, leading to significant global supply pressure. Domestic downstream demand is weak, while high oil - mill operation rates and low breeding profits suppress consumption growth. However, Argentina's drought and the continuous reduction of domestic soybean meal inventory provide bottom support [6]. - **豆油期货**: The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation. As the oil - mill operation rate recovers, soybean oil supply is becoming looser, and terminal consumption is weak, with inventory pressure still existing. But the US biodiesel policy expectations and international crude oil price fluctuations support the soybean oil futures price [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 豆粕期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound stage. The 4th - week oil - mill soybean actual crushing volume is 2.1021 million tons, the operation rate is 57.83%, and the soybean meal inventory is 898,600 tons. Pay attention to South American weather, Brazil's new - crop arrival rhythm, and domestic breeding demand [6]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend last week, with a slightly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 was expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean meal futures price is currently in a sideways trend, with a strongly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak - range fluctuation, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [19][21][24] 豆油期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range fluctuation stage. The 125 oil - mills' actual soybean oil output in the 4th week is 39,940 tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory is 956,000 tons. Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward trend last week, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 was expected to continue a slightly bullish range - bound pattern [32]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 is expected to be in a high - level range - bound stage [32]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazil's premium. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [42][45][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Last week, the copper market oscillated at a high level and broke through the previous high in the game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality." The macro - situation is divided at home and abroad, and the fundamentals show a typical multi - empty tug - of war. The copper price is still in an oscillating pattern. Looking forward, the copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fluctuation risk may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro - situation: There is a differentiation between domestic and overseas. Domestic active fiscal and monetary policies boost market confidence, while overseas, the Federal Reserve signals a suspension of interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical disturbances create a complex background. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the strike crisis at Chilean copper mines continues, and the raw material shortage pattern remains. On the demand side, high prices continuously suppress spot purchases, and the market rationally revises the expectation of copper consumption in emerging fields such as AI. Although there is policy - driven stocking demand in the photovoltaic field, the overall consumption shows "weak reality" characteristics. - Future trend: The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, with potential for intensified fluctuation risks. "Strong expectations" such as long - term supply bottlenecks, global green - transition demand, and a macro - loose environment provide bottom support, while "weak reality" pressure from high - price negative feedback, geopolitical and overseas - policy uncertainties will continue to cause disturbances [2]. Attention Factors - Attention should be paid to the latest Sino - US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change Amount | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 101,770 | 100,330 | 1,440 | 1.44% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 110 | - 45 | - 65 | - 144.44% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward - spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 46.4 | - 45 | - 1.4 | - 3.11% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 102,770 | 101,500 | 1,270 | 1.25% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 143,575 | 138,975 | 4,600 | 3.31% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 213,515 | 180,543 | 32,972 | 18.26% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper (LME Copper 3), and the Shanghai - London ratio (unadjusted for exchange rate) through relevant charts, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents relevant data on copper concentrate forward - spot prices, crude copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price - change trends, and the main - market refined - scrap price difference through multiple charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12][13][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded - area premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse - receipt bill - of - lading premiums through relevant charts, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [21][23][30]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper spot inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [32].

在全球不确定性持续发酵的背景下，本周贵金属行情在基本面与技术面的共振中加速演绎，黄金与白银双双刷新历史高点，凸显避险情绪仍处于高位。 ▲ATFX图 在这一背景下，黄金价格本周一度冲高至 4642 美元附近，技术结构上仍运行在明确的上升通道之中，但短线已显露出高位震荡与回调压力。结合图表结构 来看，当前金价自高位回落后，正考验通道中轨与短期趋势支撑区域，约 4600–4580 美元一带构成第一道关键支撑，若该区域能够稳住，价格更可能以高位 整理的方式消化前期涨幅，并为后续再度测试 4640 美元上方压力区积蓄动能；反之，若跌破通道下沿及 4580 美元附近支撑，则技术结构将转向更深层的修 正，回调目标可能下移至 4510 美元一线，该位置对应前期突破平台与重要结构支撑。值得注意的是，当前走势更符合"强趋势中的高位震荡"特征，而非趋 势反转信号，这与基本面尚未出现实质性缓解高度一致。白银方面，价格表现明显强于黄金，反映市场情绪并未完全转向防御，而是处于避险与投机并存阶 段，工业属性叠加资金推动，使白银在趋势延续阶段放大波动，同时也提高了短线回撤风险。整体贵金属板块中，铂金与钯金同步走强，显示资金正从单一 避险交易 ...

总之，黄金的长期叙事依然诱人，但短期的交易环境已变得异常凶险。市场正在从基于宏观信念的"买 入持有"模式，切换到基于价格波动和情绪博弈的"短线厮杀"模式。当前最佳策略是"长线逻辑埋心底， 短线操作看震荡"。具体而言，各位金友应将大部分资金置于场外观望，仅以极小仓位在4550-4560美元 支撑区与4600-4610美元阻力区之间进行高抛低吸的短线交易，严格止损，快进快出。将主要精力和资 金保留下来，等待市场完成这一轮高位震荡、情绪冷却，并在更舒适的支撑位（如4520-4500美元）出 现明确的企稳信号后，再进行中线级别的多头布局。在狂热的氛围中保持冷静和耐心，是在当前市场生 存并最终获利的关键。 故日内操作建议： 黄金：4590-4592一线做空，止损4601，目标看4550-4520-4500一线，破位持有。若再度重新站上4600， 则回调出空做多，看4630-4650一线。另外，下跌至4550不破，也可反手出空做多，继续看高位震荡。 周二（1月13日），市场正处在一个微妙的节点：长期利多格局与短期回调风险激烈博弈，任何风吹草 动都可能引发价格的剧烈摆动。早盘市场风云突变，价格上演开盘直线跳水，伦敦金快速失 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are expected to be in a high - level shock state as of December 31, 2025. The short - fiber futures showed a relatively strong shock, and the bottle - chip market's trading atmosphere slightly recovered with upstream raw materials rising [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: For short - fiber futures, the prices of short - fiber 2601, 2602, and 2603 were 6700, 6564, and 6556 respectively, with changes of 18, 24, and - 104 compared to the previous day. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 35898 to 223942, and the主力成交量 decreased by 12854 to 185172. The short - fiber华东现货价格 rose by 10 to 6.540, and the short - fiber产销率 increased by 1% to 55% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: For bottle - chip futures, the prices of bottle - chip 2601, 2602, and 2603 were 5850, 6040, and 6050 respectively, with changes of 62, 18, and 22 compared to the previous day. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1087 to 39111, and the主力成交量 decreased by 23164 to 45895. The bottle - chip华东现货 price and bottle - chip华南现货 price remained unchanged at 6035 and 6080 respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber futures were in a relatively strong shock. The factory's spot quotes remained stable, with the semi - bright 1.4D mainstream quotes in the range of 6650 - 6700. The trading volume was still low, and the downstream purchased on demand. As of 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 55% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The upstream raw materials fluctuated and closed higher. The polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market slightly recovered, and the orders from December to February were mostly traded at 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly lower at 5960 - 5980 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The short - fiber trend intensity and bottle - chip trend intensity were both 0, indicating a neutral state for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **U.S. Stocks**: Over the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -3.04%, -1.63%, and -1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -3.39% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 1.29% during the same period [2] - **A - shares**: The wind All - A Index changed by 0.63%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.94%, 0.82%, -0.04%, 0.47%, 0.88%, and 3.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, most indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.79%. Among 30 Citic industries, 17 industries rose and 13 fell, with electric power and new energy, steel, petrochemicals, coal, and basic chemicals leading the gains with weekly increases of over 3.0%. Grid equipment, photovoltaic, carbon neutrality, new energy, coal, environmental protection, and Hong Kong stock dividend ETFs led with weekly increases of over 4% [3] Bond Market - **Chinese Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.22% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 1.88 BP to 1.8142%. Yields of all maturity varieties increased, and the yield curve shifted upward [4] - **Funding and Leverage**: As of November 7, 2025, R007 was 1.4677%, down 2.46 BP from October 31, 2025; DR007 was 1.4130%, down 4.21 BP, and the spread between them widened. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan in the past week. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume increasing from 6.70 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025, to 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025 [5][7] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), long - term U.S. Treasury bond yields rose while short - term yields fell. As of November 7, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.11% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [8] Currency and Commodity Markets - **Exchange Rates**: The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.18% in the past week (20251103 - 20251109), and the U.S. dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The U.S. dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB increased slightly [9] - **Gold Prices**: Gold prices continued to fall in the past week (20251103 - 20251109). London gold spot prices decreased by 0.43% to $3994.10 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.01% to $3995.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai gold spot down 0.38% to 918.03 yuan per gram and futures down 0.16% to 919.02 yuan per gram [10] Outlook and Recommendations - **A - shares**: A - shares are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as electric power and new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemicals, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence [11] - **Bond Market**: High risk appetite is not conducive to the bond market, but the high absolute yield has long - term allocation value [11] - **Gold**: Although the long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, there is a lack of short - term catalysts for growth, and it is likely to decline slightly or move sideways [11]

Group 1 - The recent trading session saw a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of $115, reaching a low of 3945, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations for future upward movement [4][5] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a bullish outlook, particularly around support levels of 902 for domestic gold and 896 for futures contracts [5][6] Group 2 - International silver experienced extreme fluctuations, with a high of 51.5 and a low of 48.5, but the overall trend remains bullish, with support at 49.5 [6] - The outlook for crude oil indicates a potential short-term consolidation phase, with a current price around 61.5, while maintaining a long-term bearish view [6][7] - Domestic fuel oil is in a quiet period with limited price movement, suggesting a wait-and-see approach unless it reaches key support levels [7]