Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **U.S. Stocks**: Over the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -3.04%, -1.63%, and -1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -3.39% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 1.29% during the same period [2] - **A - shares**: The wind All - A Index changed by 0.63%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.94%, 0.82%, -0.04%, 0.47%, 0.88%, and 3.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, most indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.79%. Among 30 Citic industries, 17 industries rose and 13 fell, with electric power and new energy, steel, petrochemicals, coal, and basic chemicals leading the gains with weekly increases of over 3.0%. Grid equipment, photovoltaic, carbon neutrality, new energy, coal, environmental protection, and Hong Kong stock dividend ETFs led with weekly increases of over 4% [3] Bond Market - **Chinese Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.22% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 1.88 BP to 1.8142%. Yields of all maturity varieties increased, and the yield curve shifted upward [4] - **Funding and Leverage**: As of November 7, 2025, R007 was 1.4677%, down 2.46 BP from October 31, 2025; DR007 was 1.4130%, down 4.21 BP, and the spread between them widened. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan in the past week. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume increasing from 6.70 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025, to 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025 [5][7] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), long - term U.S. Treasury bond yields rose while short - term yields fell. As of November 7, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.11% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [8] Currency and Commodity Markets - **Exchange Rates**: The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.18% in the past week (20251103 - 20251109), and the U.S. dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The U.S. dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB increased slightly [9] - **Gold Prices**: Gold prices continued to fall in the past week (20251103 - 20251109). London gold spot prices decreased by 0.43% to $3994.10 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.01% to $3995.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai gold spot down 0.38% to 918.03 yuan per gram and futures down 0.16% to 919.02 yuan per gram [10] Outlook and Recommendations - **A - shares**: A - shares are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as electric power and new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemicals, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence [11] - **Bond Market**: High risk appetite is not conducive to the bond market, but the high absolute yield has long - term allocation value [11] - **Gold**: Although the long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, there is a lack of short - term catalysts for growth, and it is likely to decline slightly or move sideways [11]

Group 1 - The recent trading session saw a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of $115, reaching a low of 3945, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations for future upward movement [4][5] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a bullish outlook, particularly around support levels of 902 for domestic gold and 896 for futures contracts [5][6] Group 2 - International silver experienced extreme fluctuations, with a high of 51.5 and a low of 48.5, but the overall trend remains bullish, with support at 49.5 [6] - The outlook for crude oil indicates a potential short-term consolidation phase, with a current price around 61.5, while maintaining a long-term bearish view [6][7] - Domestic fuel oil is in a quiet period with limited price movement, suggesting a wait-and-see approach unless it reaches key support levels [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend with high-level fluctuations, maintaining strong support at 3715 despite a recent drop to around 3722 [1][2] - The recent high point for gold reached 3792, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, and the market is not expected to peak at 3800 [2] - Traders are advised to wait for pullbacks to key support levels, such as 3750 and 3715, before entering long positions to maximize profits [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver prices have reached a new high of 45.2, with a strong upward trend, but traders are cautioned against chasing prices at this level [3] - Support for silver is identified at 44.5, and if prices pull back to this level, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing upward movement, with a focus on maintaining positions without attempting to short the market [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil prices are on the rise, with a temporary high of 65.2, and traders are advised to take profits on long positions if prices reach 66 [4] - The domestic fuel oil market has shown significant gains, reaching around 2960, with a target of 3000 in sight [4] - Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as the market approaches the 3000 target, with a focus on maintaining bullish sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that after recent adjustments, there is still potential for upward movement, but caution is advised against chasing prices too aggressively [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently in a bullish trend, with recent adjustments showing a low of 3717 and a high of 3780, indicating a potential trading range for the day [5]. - The article suggests that traders should wait for pullbacks to key support levels (3715 and 3680) before entering long positions, rather than chasing highs [5][6]. - The technical indicators show a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands tightening and moving averages converging, suggesting a period of high-level fluctuation [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 44.5, with current support at 43.5. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests monitoring the support level for potential rebounds [7]. - If silver holds above 43.5, there may be opportunities for long positions, but a break below this level could indicate a further decline [7]. Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil prices have risen to a high of 45, with a target of 66 for the week. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests holding onto profitable positions [8]. - Domestic fuel oil has also seen an increase, currently around 2915, with a target of 3000. Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as they approach this target [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3657.90 per ounce, experiencing narrow fluctuations [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points was initially seen as a positive for gold, but the ambiguous statements from Chairman Powell cooled expectations for aggressive future cuts [2] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have put additional pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index increasing by 0.4% to 97.347 [2] - Gold's recent trading range has been between $3633 and $3672, with a notable two consecutive daily declines for the first time since the rise from $3311 [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at $3615 and $3672, respectively, with a bullish trend expected to continue after a mid-term adjustment [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have slightly decreased to $67.43, while WTI futures are at $63.53, with both benchmarks expected to record a second consecutive week of increases [6] - The unexpected increase of 4 million barrels in U.S. distillate inventories has raised concerns about demand, countering the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut [6] - The oil market is currently facing a "dual game," balancing the Fed's easing policies against rising inventory data and weak macroeconomic indicators [6] - Short-term oil price trends are characterized by a weak and volatile consolidation pattern, with key support at $62.30 and resistance between $64.0 and $65.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the bullish trend for gold remains intact despite significant adjustments, indicating a high-level consolidation within a bullish trend [2][4] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3615 and 3672, respectively, with the market expected to maintain a bullish trend as long as it stays above 3615 [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold saw a decline from 3707 to 3628, a drop of nearly 80 USD, but the overall outlook remains positive due to global geopolitical instability and poor economic conditions [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading strategies suggest exiting all long positions before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with specific price levels for potential long positions set at 830 and 820 [3] - The Shanghai gold market is projected to see upward movement towards 840, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the trend remains unchanged [3] Group 3 - The silver market is also in a bullish trend, with key levels to watch at 41 and 40.5, indicating potential for further upward movement if these levels hold [5] - The domestic silver market has shown resilience, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the support level at 9700 is not broken [5] Group 4 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern between 64.6 and 63.3, with no significant price movements observed [6] - Domestic fuel oil is expected to have upward potential, with a focus on buying opportunities around 2750, while monitoring resistance levels at 2850 and 3000 [6]

Group 1 - Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, but attention is needed for potential strength conversion on Thursday, with support levels at 3375 and 3350 [4][5] - The trading range for gold on Wednesday was between 3393 and 3373, with a peak at around 3400 during the US session, aligning with expectations [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the daily cycle is nearing its peak, and if the daily candle closes bearish, a strong weakness conversion is likely, potentially leading to a drop to 3350 [5][6] Group 2 - Silver experienced a decline but maintained a bullish trend, with a trading range between 39 and 38; a drop below 38 could lead to further declines [6] - The domestic gold market remains strong, with the Shanghai gold contract holding around 785 and the Rongtong gold contract around 778, indicating potential for further gains if they stay above 780 and 772 respectively [5][6] - The international crude oil market showed an upward trend, with a support level at 62.5 and a peak at 64.2, suggesting continued bullish momentum [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating of the stock index is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, investor sentiment remains strong, and sectors such as securities brokers related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market has not been established, and it will take time to form a structural slow - bull market. The market has shown some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market is strong. The callback depth and space are limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is relatively narrow. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. - For futures operations, short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. There is still an expectation of regression for IH - IM, and it is still in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended. For option operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. This week, one can try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Investors with a conservative preference can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies issued in accordance with the child - rearing subsidy system are exempt from personal income tax, effective January 1, 2025 [4]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among Fed officials regarding the risks of inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most think the risk of rising inflation is higher than the risk of declining employment [4]. 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.23%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86%. In terms of sectors, computer hardware (+3.59%) and petrochemicals (+3.54%) led the gains, while highways (-0.41%) and biotechnology (-0.15%) lagged. More than 3,600 stocks rose, and 104 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily and weekly lines of the four major stock indexes maintain an upward trend, and they have generally broken through the 2023 high, showing a strong technical pattern [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly declined to around 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a relatively high trading enthusiasm [4]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Short - term investor sentiment is strong, and sectors related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market is not clear, and the market shows fear of high prices. Although the short - term sentiment is still optimistic, the callback space is limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is narrow. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. For IH - IM, there is an expectation of regression, and it is in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended [3]. - **Options**: Try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility this week, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3].

Group 1 - The overall market trend for gold is bullish, with expectations of high-level fluctuations this week, indicating a lack of strong continuation in either direction [2][4] - Gold is expected to see a rise to around 3360/3365, with support levels at 3330 and 3320, providing opportunities for long positions as long as these levels hold [4][5] - Silver maintains a bullish trend as long as it does not break the support level of 37.3, with potential upward movement towards 38.6 [5][6] Group 2 - International crude oil is projected to remain bullish around the 66 mark, with current prices near 67.7, and potential targets of 69.2 and 72 depending on market movements [6] - Domestic fuel oil is experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a recent drop below 2950, but opportunities for long positions may arise if prices fall below 2850 [6]