虽然上个交易日黄金走出了暴跌空间，全盘上下接近有115美金，但是山海还是要强调的是，黄金的多头趋势不变，未来市场还是要看主力上涨。在趋势 中，一切下跌都只算是调整空间。不过，尊重市场，既然黄金走出了大跌，那么，今天黄金就不会像周一，周二，周三那样强势，所以，今天黄金走势 有两种可能，要么是多头趋势的高位震荡，要么是单边多头上涨趋势。那么，今天交易还是尽量做低多看涨。从技术面来看，日线大阴回落，跌破5日均 线，但没有破位10日均线，所以，不存在说强弱转换，下方跌破3900才可能考虑多空趋势变化。H4周期短期布林收口，可能会在高位震荡一段时间，实 际上下关注的区间在3920/4060，所以，即使今天再低一波也算是正常的表现，但午夜在低位3945快速反弹，那么，今天再走低的可能性不大，大概率会 在3945之上继续看涨，还是保持看涨不猜顶原则，如果继续走出趋势力度，今天还是可以看涨到前高4060高点。小周期来看，小周期下方支撑在3970附 近，今天亚欧盘可在此点位做多看涨，如果是震荡大概率看到4000之上，如果是单边即可逐步看4030，4060。 国内黄金一直提示看涨不追涨，在高位追多的风险也很大，特别是周四大概率会 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend with high-level fluctuations, maintaining strong support at 3715 despite a recent drop to around 3722 [1][2] - The recent high point for gold reached 3792, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, and the market is not expected to peak at 3800 [2] - Traders are advised to wait for pullbacks to key support levels, such as 3750 and 3715, before entering long positions to maximize profits [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver prices have reached a new high of 45.2, with a strong upward trend, but traders are cautioned against chasing prices at this level [3] - Support for silver is identified at 44.5, and if prices pull back to this level, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing upward movement, with a focus on maintaining positions without attempting to short the market [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil prices are on the rise, with a temporary high of 65.2, and traders are advised to take profits on long positions if prices reach 66 [4] - The domestic fuel oil market has shown significant gains, reaching around 2960, with a target of 3000 in sight [4] - Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as the market approaches the 3000 target, with a focus on maintaining bullish sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that after recent adjustments, there is still potential for upward movement, but caution is advised against chasing prices too aggressively [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently in a bullish trend, with recent adjustments showing a low of 3717 and a high of 3780, indicating a potential trading range for the day [5]. - The article suggests that traders should wait for pullbacks to key support levels (3715 and 3680) before entering long positions, rather than chasing highs [5][6]. - The technical indicators show a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands tightening and moving averages converging, suggesting a period of high-level fluctuation [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 44.5, with current support at 43.5. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests monitoring the support level for potential rebounds [7]. - If silver holds above 43.5, there may be opportunities for long positions, but a break below this level could indicate a further decline [7]. Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil prices have risen to a high of 45, with a target of 66 for the week. The article advises against chasing prices and suggests holding onto profitable positions [8]. - Domestic fuel oil has also seen an increase, currently around 2915, with a target of 3000. Traders are encouraged to adjust positions as they approach this target [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3657.90 per ounce, experiencing narrow fluctuations [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points was initially seen as a positive for gold, but the ambiguous statements from Chairman Powell cooled expectations for aggressive future cuts [2] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have put additional pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index increasing by 0.4% to 97.347 [2] - Gold's recent trading range has been between $3633 and $3672, with a notable two consecutive daily declines for the first time since the rise from $3311 [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at $3615 and $3672, respectively, with a bullish trend expected to continue after a mid-term adjustment [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have slightly decreased to $67.43, while WTI futures are at $63.53, with both benchmarks expected to record a second consecutive week of increases [6] - The unexpected increase of 4 million barrels in U.S. distillate inventories has raised concerns about demand, countering the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut [6] - The oil market is currently facing a "dual game," balancing the Fed's easing policies against rising inventory data and weak macroeconomic indicators [6] - Short-term oil price trends are characterized by a weak and volatile consolidation pattern, with key support at $62.30 and resistance between $64.0 and $65.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the bullish trend for gold remains intact despite significant adjustments, indicating a high-level consolidation within a bullish trend [2][4] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3615 and 3672, respectively, with the market expected to maintain a bullish trend as long as it stays above 3615 [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold saw a decline from 3707 to 3628, a drop of nearly 80 USD, but the overall outlook remains positive due to global geopolitical instability and poor economic conditions [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading strategies suggest exiting all long positions before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with specific price levels for potential long positions set at 830 and 820 [3] - The Shanghai gold market is projected to see upward movement towards 840, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the trend remains unchanged [3] Group 3 - The silver market is also in a bullish trend, with key levels to watch at 41 and 40.5, indicating potential for further upward movement if these levels hold [5] - The domestic silver market has shown resilience, with a focus on maintaining long positions as long as the support level at 9700 is not broken [5] Group 4 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern between 64.6 and 63.3, with no significant price movements observed [6] - Domestic fuel oil is expected to have upward potential, with a focus on buying opportunities around 2750, while monitoring resistance levels at 2850 and 3000 [6]

Group 1 - Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, but attention is needed for potential strength conversion on Thursday, with support levels at 3375 and 3350 [4][5] - The trading range for gold on Wednesday was between 3393 and 3373, with a peak at around 3400 during the US session, aligning with expectations [2][4] - The technical analysis indicates that the daily cycle is nearing its peak, and if the daily candle closes bearish, a strong weakness conversion is likely, potentially leading to a drop to 3350 [5][6] Group 2 - Silver experienced a decline but maintained a bullish trend, with a trading range between 39 and 38; a drop below 38 could lead to further declines [6] - The domestic gold market remains strong, with the Shanghai gold contract holding around 785 and the Rongtong gold contract around 778, indicating potential for further gains if they stay above 780 and 772 respectively [5][6] - The international crude oil market showed an upward trend, with a support level at 62.5 and a peak at 64.2, suggesting continued bullish momentum [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating of the stock index is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, investor sentiment remains strong, and sectors such as securities brokers related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market has not been established, and it will take time to form a structural slow - bull market. The market has shown some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market is strong. The callback depth and space are limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is relatively narrow. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. - For futures operations, short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. There is still an expectation of regression for IH - IM, and it is still in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended. For option operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. This week, one can try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Investors with a conservative preference can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies issued in accordance with the child - rearing subsidy system are exempt from personal income tax, effective January 1, 2025 [4]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among Fed officials regarding the risks of inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most think the risk of rising inflation is higher than the risk of declining employment [4]. 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.23%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86%. In terms of sectors, computer hardware (+3.59%) and petrochemicals (+3.54%) led the gains, while highways (-0.41%) and biotechnology (-0.15%) lagged. More than 3,600 stocks rose, and 104 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily and weekly lines of the four major stock indexes maintain an upward trend, and they have generally broken through the 2023 high, showing a strong technical pattern [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly declined to around 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a relatively high trading enthusiasm [4]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Short - term investor sentiment is strong, and sectors related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market is not clear, and the market shows fear of high prices. Although the short - term sentiment is still optimistic, the callback space is limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is narrow. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. For IH - IM, there is an expectation of regression, and it is in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended [3]. - **Options**: Try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility this week, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3].

Group 1 - The overall market trend for gold is bullish, with expectations of high-level fluctuations this week, indicating a lack of strong continuation in either direction [2][4] - Gold is expected to see a rise to around 3360/3365, with support levels at 3330 and 3320, providing opportunities for long positions as long as these levels hold [4][5] - Silver maintains a bullish trend as long as it does not break the support level of 37.3, with potential upward movement towards 38.6 [5][6] Group 2 - International crude oil is projected to remain bullish around the 66 mark, with current prices near 67.7, and potential targets of 69.2 and 72 depending on market movements [6] - Domestic fuel oil is experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a recent drop below 2950, but opportunities for long positions may arise if prices fall below 2850 [6]

Group 1 - The overall market direction remains bullish, but caution is advised due to potential high-level fluctuations and consolidation [1][3] - Recent gold prices showed a slight decline, with a daily high of $3356.6 and a low of $3323.5, closing at $3341, indicating a stable overall range [3] - The previous Friday's significant increase was followed by a correction, with resistance levels near $3380-$3400, suggesting limited upward movement of $20-$30 [3] Group 2 - The weekly outlook continues to favor bullish positions, with expectations to break above last week's high of $3365 towards the $3380-$3430 resistance area [3] - Short-term trading strategies emphasize caution in high-level positions, with support levels identified at $3320 and potential further declines to $3300-$3280 for bottom-fishing [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a pressure zone between $3355-$3360, with a need to maintain above $3360 for further upward movement [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]