Core Viewpoint - The global dependence on the U.S. stock market has become dangerously high, with potential unprecedented impacts on the world economy if a significant downturn occurs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in the U.S. stock market is driven by escalating trade tensions, yet it remains close to historical highs [2]. - The current market rally is fueled by the AI boom, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble, which ultimately led to the 2000 internet crash [2][4]. Group 2: Wealth Impact - A market correction similar to the internet bubble could result in over $20 trillion in lost wealth for American households, equating to about 70% of the U.S. GDP in 2024 [4]. - Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $15 trillion, representing around 20% of the GDP of other countries, significantly higher than the losses during the internet bubble [4]. Group 3: Global Economic Interconnections - The interconnectedness of global markets means that a sharp decline in the U.S. market would have widespread repercussions [4][5]. - The traditional role of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven during crises may no longer hold, as recent trends show a weakening of the dollar against major currencies [5]. Group 4: Structural Vulnerabilities - Current economic conditions present stronger headwinds than in 2000, including high U.S. government debt and trade tensions, which contribute to increased uncertainty [5][6]. - The need for other regions to find new growth drivers is critical to mitigate the imbalance created by the U.S. market's dominance [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There are signs of capital beginning to flow back into emerging markets, but sustained growth in these economies is essential to maintain this trend [8]. - The potential consequences of a market crash today could be more severe than those experienced after the internet bubble, with less policy space available to cushion the impact [8][9].