Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]