大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1630（-7/-0.43%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下探，成交一般，河南出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1620-1630 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1560-1570 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 25 日，尿素行业日产 20.11 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.04 万吨；较 去年同期增加 1.10 万吨；今日开工率 83.17%，较去年同期 84.11%下降 0.94%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳， 成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主； 河南地 ...

进入2025年四季度，国内尿素市场步入传统储备季。尽管尿素日产量维持高位波动，但在储备需求集中 释放、出口集港稳步推进及复合肥行业负荷回升等多重利好因素支撑下，市场情绪较前期有所好转，尿 素企业库存呈现稳步下降态势。期现市场的价格波动既反映了短期供需格局的变化，也蕴含着对后市政 策与出口预期的预判。在此背景下，尿素价格整体呈现偏强运行特征。 近期，复合肥行业开工率上升的同时库存下降，说明其产销率开始提升。根据隆众资讯统计，复合肥产 能利用率在34.61%，环比提升4.29个百分点。从主产区看，东北地区部分装置开始低负荷生产，少数企 业满负荷生产中；湖北、山东地区部分中规模企业排产增多，拉升区域内产能利用率；河北地区前期停 车装置部分恢复生产；河南地区除规模企业产量增加外，部分中小型企业处于停车状态；西南、苏皖等 地区维持以销定产中。未来企业陆续排产冬储肥，预计复合肥产能利用率继续窄幅提升。复合肥企业库 存降至65.48万吨，与去年同期基本持平，库存压力已得到有效缓解。 出口集港缓解库存压力 出口作为调节今年尿素供需矛盾的关键因素，其表现始终是期现市场关注的焦点。强劲的出口数据不仅 缓解了国内新增产能带来的供应 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货研究 尿素基差 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 01-01 01-11 01-21 01-31 02-10 02-20 03-02 03-12 03-22 04-01 04-11 04-21 05-01 05-11 05-21 05-31 06-10 06-20 06-30 07-10 07-20 07-30 08-09 08-19 08-29 09-08 09-18 09-28 10-08 10-18 10-28 11-07 11-17 11-27 12-07 12-17 12-27 元/吨 正元基差 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 01-01 01-11 01-21 01-3 ...

下游逢低补货，尿素震荡为主 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年11月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：下游低价补货，现货窄幅反弹 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：下游高价抵制，出厂价弱势运行 周末至今，随着出厂价连续上调，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪 表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单 成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏弱，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商出货，收单量减少， 成交一般，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱势运行为主。交割区周边区域出厂价坚挺，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区需求增加，交投情绪尚 可，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量减少，新单成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂价暂稳为主。综合来看，检修装置陆续回 归，日均产量增加至20. ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1654（0-7/-0.42%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价窄幅提涨，成交一般，河南出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1620-1630 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1560-1570 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1600-1610 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 20.15 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；较去 年同期增加 1.34 万吨；今日开工率 83.33%，较去年同期 83.23%提升 0.1%。 【逻辑分析】 随着出厂价连续上调，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳，成交 乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始 出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南 地区市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1662（+13/+0.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价弱稳，成交尚可，河南出厂报 1530-1550 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1540-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1560-1570 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1480-1520 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1540-1550 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1450-1490 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 17 日，尿素行业日产 20.44 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.11 万吨；较 去年同期增加 2.24 万吨；今日开工率 84.53%，较去年同期 80.53%提升 4.00%。 【逻辑分析】 新增出口配额消息影响消退，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌， 成交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价领涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价下跌为主； 河南地区市 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on November 14, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Report Focus: Urea Market in the Commodity Sector [1][2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1652 (0/0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. Prices varied by region, e.g., Henan at 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized at 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 14, it was 20.33 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous workday and 1.86 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: On November 14, it was 84.08%, a 2.38% increase from 81.70% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, and market sentiment cooled. Mainstream spot factory prices fell with weak trading [5] - Regional Analysis: Shandong expected falling prices due to weak demand; Henan expected to follow the downward trend; the delivery area and Northeast expected stable prices [5] - Supply and Demand: Supply increased as maintenance units returned. Demand was weak as the fourth - batch quota was issued, and domestic demand entered a "vacuum period" [5] - Price Forecast: With a loose supply - demand situation, urea prices are expected to continue to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Short positions are recommended [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold off on arbitrage operations [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts cover various aspects such as urea daily output, operating rate, production, enterprise inventory, and related downstream product data from 2022 - 2025 [10][14]

回归基本面，尿素震荡偏弱 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年11月 银河能化微信公众号 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：重回基本面，出厂价再次下跌 交易策略：单边，高空；套利，观望；场外，观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：供应恢复，出厂价延续跌势 周末至今，新增出口配额消息影响消退，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价领涨，市 场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货， 新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏弱，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商出货，收单量减 少，成交一般，待发消耗，预计出厂报价跟跌为主。交割区周边区域出厂价跟涨，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区需求平稳，交投情绪尚 可，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量减少，新单成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂价暂稳为主。综合来看，检修装置陆续回 归，日均产量增加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that urea will continue its downward trend. The domestic supply is abundant, and with the end of the autumn fertilizer season in North China, the overall demand is set to enter a "vacuum period." Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas may boost market sentiment in the short - term, the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and weakened, closing at 1640 (-21/-1.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with average trading. Different regions had different ex - factory price ranges, such as 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton in Henan, 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton for small - sized in Shandong and Hebei, 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton for medium and small - sized in Shanxi, 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton for small - sized in Anhui, and 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [3]. Important Information - On November 11, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.51 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.49 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, up 3.68% from 79.73% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - The impact of the news about the new export quota has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes led the increase, but market sentiment cooled, with the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declining, raw material inventory being abundant, finished product inventory being high, and few grass - roots orders. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory quotes followed the increase. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, and the market atmosphere was average. The demand in Northeast China was stable, and the trading sentiment was okay [5]. - The maintenance devices have gradually returned, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.6 tons. On the demand side, with the issuance of the fourth batch of quotas, the influence of international prices on the domestic market has increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the urea inventory can be used for more than half a month. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited. Although the new quota issuance will boost market sentiment to some extent in the short - term, the domestic autumn fertilizer has ended, and the overall demand is about to enter a "vacuum period." With the recent callback of bulk commodities and the loose fundamentals of urea, it is expected that urea will continue to decline [5]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short at high levels [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7].