2026年尿素价格或呈宽幅震荡走势。全年供应充裕对价格形成压制，出口政策灵活调整提供底部支撑。 上半年，农业需求处于消费旺季，尿素价格或在供需格局阶段性改善情况下震荡偏强运行。下半年，需 求进入淡季，供需面压力增大，尿素价格或逐渐下行。 2026年是产能投放大年 2025年尿素行业产能稳步扩张，供应压力凸显。2025年尿素新增产能预计440万吨，投产主要集中在 二、三季度。多套装置已经落地，包括陕西煤化工80万吨／年装置、甘肃刘化70万吨／年装置、江苏晋 煤恒盛化工60万吨／年装置，等等。预计2025年尿素国内产能在7980万吨，产能增速为5.83%。 2026年亦为尿素新增装置投产大年。根据不完全统计，国内尿素仍有约527万吨产能待投产，名义产能 增速将在6.60%。供应端预计维持宽松格局。 生产成本中枢有望上移 2025年，煤炭市场呈现明显的"先抑后扬"态势。上半年，煤炭价格延续下行探底趋势；下半年，市场止 跌回升信号显现，价格重心逐步上移。走势转变的背后是煤炭市场基本面的阶段性改善：此前供需关系 持续偏宽松，成为压制煤价走低的核心因素；后续受安全检查、超产核查等政策加码影响，煤炭产量收 紧，叠加年内高温 ...

• 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存继续回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，整体采购并不积极，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳，储备需求继续放 缓。出口内外价差大，近期新增出口配额等信息对盘面仍有影响，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交 割品现货1740（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-38，升贴水比例-2.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.1万吨（-5.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹，工业需求按需为主，库存去库，国内整体供过于求仍 明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-1-7 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-1-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存继续回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，整体采购并不积极，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳，储备需求继续放 缓。出口内外价差大，近期新增出口配额等信息对盘面仍有影响，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交 割品现货1710（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-39，升贴水比例-2.3%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.1万吨（-5.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1630（0/0%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交乏力，河南出厂报 1600-1620 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】12 月 16 日，尿素行业日产 19.51 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.05 万吨；较去 年同期增加 1.44 万吨；今日开工率 80.67%，较去年同期 79.95%提升 0.72%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价下跌，市场情绪表现平稳，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价喜爱跌，成 交一般。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开 始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河 南地区市场情绪偏弱，出厂报 ...

节前降价收单，尿素延续跌势 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年9月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 GALAXY FUTURES 2 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 4 3、主流厂家出厂价 上周观点：供需格局继续恶化，尿素跌幅扩大 本周观点：节前降价收单，尿素延续跌势 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥 开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，待发消耗， 预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交转弱，待发充裕，预计出厂报价跟跌为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价弱稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区需求低迷，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单 量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1643 | -3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -68 | -4 3804 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 150646 | -16428 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -5968 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 11477 | -49 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1690 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1690 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1690 | -30 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1690 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 44 | -3 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 352.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 391.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 10.5 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The domestic urea futures market is experiencing a fluctuating downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1661.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.08% [1] - Urea prices are facing increased resistance to rise, as industrial compound fertilizer enterprises have ramped up production, leading to a sustained high daily output of urea and a generally loose supply-demand situation [2] - The marginal demand for urea has shown some improvement, with compound fertilizer weekly operating rates increasing by 3.5% to 40.5%, and the number of urea orders rising by 0.7% to 7.35 [2] Group 2 - Urea inventory has decreased to 1.291 million tons, down by 73,000 tons week-on-week, indicating ongoing destocking efforts [2] - Despite a number of maintenance activities in December affecting around 7 million tons of total capacity, daily production is expected to remain high at 19-20 thousand tons, with a reported daily output of 19.68 thousand tons, which is an increase of 1.49 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The urea market is currently supported by fundamentals and policies, with short-term downward space being effectively supported while facing upward pressure, leading to expectations of continued fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1677 (+12/+0.72%) [3] - Spot market: Factory - gate prices increased, and trading was stable. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1589 - 1610 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized 1560 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 28, the daily urea production was 20.34 tons, the same as the previous workday and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a 0.06% increase from 84.04% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory - gate price was weakly stable. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory. Orders were scarce, and the factory - gate price was expected to be weakly stable [5] - Henan: Market sentiment was weak. The factory - gate price followed the increase, but trading volume decreased. It was expected to operate weakly [5] - Areas around the delivery area: The factory - gate price was firm. Demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. The factory - gate price was expected to remain stable [5] - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, increasing daily production to around 20.4 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, increasing the impact of international prices on the domestic market. Demand from compound fertilizer plants declined, and inventory was high. Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.33 tons to around 1.36 million tons [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].