| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1819 | 2 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 14 | -11 | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 266075 | 3294 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -44501 | -3814 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1870 | 20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 30 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1890 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1890 | 30 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1870 | 30 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 73 | 60 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 408 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 481 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 17.4 | 0.8 企业库存(周,万吨) ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺当前 开工均在偏低位置。农需储备需求良好，随着节后春耕需求启动预计仍有上升空间。综合库存继 续回落，去库形态明显。外盘价格维持高位，出口内外价差继续拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业 协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中 长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前交割品现货1830（+20），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-25，升贴水比例-1.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR ...

Report Date - The report is dated February 11, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period last year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to increase, and the comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In terms of industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizer is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral. The main position of UR is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4] - Bullish factors include inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand; bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logics are international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With maintenance return, operating rate will rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and de - stocking is obvious. Near Spring Festival, order demand is okay, agricultural reserve demand is good. Compound fertilizer demand is stable in industrial demand, while melamine operating rate is falling. There is a large export price difference, but domestic supply still exceeds demand. Spot delivery price is 1800 (+10), and fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: UR2605 contract basis is 15, premium - discount ratio is 0.8%, bullish [4] - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of UR is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with high operating rate year - on - year. Although it's near Spring Festival, downstream reserve demand is okay, and inventory is de - stocking [4] Spot and Futures | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1800 (+10), Shandong spot price is 1800 (+10), Henan spot price is 1800 (0), FOB China price is 3058 [6] | | **Futures** | 05 contract price is 1785 (-3), UR01 price is 1735 (-9), UR09 price is 1743 (-5). UR2605 contract basis is 15 (+13) [6] | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 11036 (+176), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), UR manufacturer inventory is 919 million tons, UR port inventory is 165 million tons [6] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea capacity has been increasing, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence of PP has shown a downward trend from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate was 12.8% in 2019, 17.9% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 8.4% in 2024 [9] - In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, urea continues its oscillating pattern with low - price procurement. Attention should be paid to external disturbances. Mainstream factory ex - factory prices in most regions are stable, but market sentiment is low and trading is weak. Industrial compound fertilizer开工率 has increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories are high, and grass - roots orders are scarce. Agricultural procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and traders are starting to sell due to fear of high prices. New orders are weak [4]. - Domestic gas - head maintenance devices have partially returned, and the daily output has rebounded to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons from the east and west coasts. Although international prices have been rising, the domestic - international price difference is still large, but there are no new domestic quotas, so the overall impact is limited [4]. - The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions is stable. Compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection in Hebei and Henan have resumed production, and enterprises with low raw material inventories are purchasing at low prices. The procurement progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the procurement intensity will gradually slow down [4]. - As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders sell due to fear of high prices, agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, factory orders weaken, and ex - factory quotes start to decline. The futures price decline further cools the spot market sentiment. Although the overall order - receiving situation has improved after the urea manufacturers lower the ex - factory quotes, downstream customers in high - price sales areas still resist. In the short term, it will continue to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply - National**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 95.30%, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. There were 3 new coal - based device shutdowns and 4 coal - based enterprise shutdown devices resumed production during the period [5]. - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 97.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The Ming Shui device had a slight production reduction, and other enterprises' production was basically normal [5]. - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 4th week of 2026 (20260116 - 0122), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.65%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points from the previous week [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: From 20260116 - 0122, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle was 42.96%, a week - on - week increase of 2.88 percentage points [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,840 tons, an increase of 460 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 33.33% [5]. - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: From 20260116 - 20260123, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Downstream factories and traders mainly purchase low - price goods for rigid demand and resist price increases [5]. - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of January 21, 2026, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.88 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous cycle, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price increased, and the urea production profit expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with ample supply exerting downward pressure on prices, while flexible export policies provide bottom support [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the urea industry will see a steady expansion of production capacity, with an expected addition of 4.4 million tons, primarily in the second and third quarters [2]. - By the end of 2025, domestic urea production capacity is projected to reach 79.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.83% [2]. - In 2026, approximately 5.27 million tons of urea capacity is still pending production, leading to a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.60% [2]. - The overall supply is expected to remain loose, impacting market prices significantly [6]. Production Costs - The production cost center is anticipated to rise, influenced by a "first suppressed, then lifted" trend in the coal market [3]. - In 2025, the complete production cost of urea from different processes varies, with fixed-bed urea costing 1917 CNY/ton, water-coal slurry at 1526 CNY/ton, and natural gas at 1978 CNY/ton [4]. Downstream Demand - Urea's apparent consumption in China for January to November 2025 was 59.86 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year [8]. - Agricultural demand is the primary driver, with direct fertilization and compound fertilizer accounting for 44.6% and 20.8% of total demand, respectively [8]. - Policies supporting high-standard farmland construction and soil fertility restoration are expected to influence urea demand positively, although the growth rate may slow over time [9]. Seasonal Demand Patterns - Urea demand exhibits seasonal characteristics, with significant usage during the growing seasons, particularly in March, June, and September [10]. - The compound fertilizer production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, supported by policies aimed at ensuring food production [11]. Export Dynamics - The domestic urea export policy was relaxed in May 2025, with a total of approximately 4.6 million tons of export quotas allocated by November 2025 [13]. - The potential for further expansion of export quotas in 2026 could alleviate domestic supply pressures [14]. Price Outlook - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate seasonally, with strong agricultural demand in the first half potentially supporting prices, while increased supply and lower demand in the second half may lead to price declines [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The export internal and external price difference is large, and recent information such as new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline. Agricultural and industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. The export internal and external price difference is large, and recent information such as new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 38, and the premium - discount ratio is - 2.2%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in shock. Industrial demand is mainly on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1740 | 20 | 05 Contract | 1778 | 10 | Warehouse Receipt | 12619 | 243 | | Shandong Spot | 1740 | 20 | Basis | -38 | 10 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 119.1 | -5.5 | | Henan Spot | 1750 | 0 | UR01 | 1694 | 12 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 101.9 | - | | FOB China | 2793 | - | UR05 | 1778 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 17.2 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1745 | 15 | - | - | - | [6] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Inventory de - stocking [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The overall demand is not strong, and the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand, and overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The overall domestic urea market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 39, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.3%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract rebounds in a fluctuating manner. The industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Inventory de - stocking is a positive factor, while domestic oversupply is a negative factor. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |--|--| | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710, with a change of +20; the price of Shandong spot is 1710 with no change; the price of Henan spot is 1710 with no change; the FOB China price is 2798 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 05 contract is 1749 with no change; the basis is - 39, with a change of +10; the price of UR01 is 1661 with no change; the price of UR05 is 1749 with no change; the price of UR09 is 1715 with no change [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 12381 with no change; the UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons; the UR port inventory is 17.2 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |

Market Review - Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1630 (0/0%) [3] - The ex - factory prices in the spot market were stable, but trading was weak. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1520 - 1570 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On December 16, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.51 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 80.67%, a 0.72% increase from 79.95% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - The ex - factory prices in mainstream regions declined, and market sentiment was stable. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices were weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizer decreased, raw material inventory was abundant, finished - product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand. In Henan, market sentiment was weak, ex - factory prices followed the decline, traders sold goods, the order - receiving volume decreased, and trading was average. In the areas around the delivery zone, ex - factory prices were firm, the market atmosphere was average, demand in Northeast China increased, trading sentiment was okay, and purchases were for agricultural rigid demand [5] - Currently, domestic supply is abundant. The operating rate of compound fertilizer in North China is slowly increasing, and attention should be paid to the order - receiving progress. Overall demand is mainly rigid. Traders have started to sell goods, and the purchasing power at high prices has weakened significantly. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 5.63 tons to around 123.42 tons, remaining at a high level [5] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, the operating rate of compound fertilizer has increased month - on - month, and the sentiment in the spot market is okay. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, a new quota has been issued, but the Indian tender has been finalized, and the impact of the international market on the domestic market is weak. In the medium term, the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas has subsided, the procurement of raw materials for domestic compound fertilizer is coming to an end, most of the off - season storage tasks have been completed, overall demand is weak, and the urea fundamentals are still loose, showing a weak trend [5] - In the short term, some manufacturers have significantly reduced prices to 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, order - receiving is okay, and trading has improved, while trading in other high - price regions remains weak. It is expected that urea futures will fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the supply - demand pattern continued to deteriorate and the decline of urea widened; this week's view is that urea continues to decline as prices are cut to receive orders before the holiday [3] - The market sentiment has been average since the weekend, with the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas falling and the trading volume being mediocre [3] - The supply is abundant as the overhauled plants are gradually resuming production and the daily output has increased to over 190,000 tons; the demand is in a "vacuum period" with the agricultural demand ending and the compound fertilizer not starting large - scale production [3] - The third batch of export quotas has been implemented, and urea has returned to the domestic fundamentals. Although the collective sharp rebound of bulk commodities provides some emotional support for urea futures, the order - receiving weakens after the spot price rises, and it is still treated with a volatile mindset in the short term [3] - The trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading without chasing the short; to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Core Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250911 - 0917), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 83.88%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [4] - Supply - Shandong: The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 81.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [4] - Demand - Melamine: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [4] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points [4] - Demand - Urea Demand of Compound Fertilizer: As of September 19, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 370 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 59.78% [4] - Demand - Advance Receipt: As of September 17, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [4] - Inventory - Enterprise: On September 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [4] - Inventory - Port: As of September 18, 2025 (the 38th week), the sample inventory of urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal rose, the spot price of urea fell, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production had a profit of 40 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 270 yuan/ton, the futures price fell, the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some new urea production units are under maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in domestic urea production. With some short - term equipment failures, the possibility of a decline in capacity utilization is high. Reserve demand has temporarily slowed down due to the rapid increase in urea prices. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased month - on - month, and short - term capacity utilization is expected to show a narrow increase. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume is 3804; the position of the main contract is 150646 lots, down 16428 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5968; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11477 sheets, down 49 sheets [2] 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20, 20, and 30 yuan respectively; in Anhui, it is 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at the main port in China is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, down 4500 tons. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, down 17 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6000330 tons, up 129060 tons [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the start - up rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32100 tons, up 600 tons [2] 5. Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.34 million tons, or 5.38%. As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 10.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons, or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of cargo collection at ports, but the cargo collection rhythm is still slow [2] 6. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]