Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown significant recovery, moving away from the traditional "summer lull" due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Factors Supporting Gold Price Recovery - **Macroeconomic Expectations**: There is a renewed market expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [2]. - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Economic and political risks in various global regions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital inflows [2]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Several central banks are increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [2]. Impact of Holidays on Gold Price Trends - **Market Liquidity**: During holidays, market liquidity typically decreases, which can lead to three potential scenarios affecting gold prices: - **Increased Volatility**: Low trading volumes can cause significant price fluctuations in response to large orders [4]. - **Delayed Market Response**: Important economic data or news released during holidays may not be immediately reflected in the market, leading to concentrated reactions when trading resumes [4]. - **Trend Continuation with Slower Pace**: If gold prices are in a strong upward trend before the holiday, the pace may slow down, but the overall trend direction is unlikely to change [4]. Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Fluctuations - **Focus on Long-Term Trends**: The core factors influencing the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices are primarily the monetary policy directions of major economies and changes in real interest rate expectations, while short-term holiday effects mainly influence trading rhythm rather than trend direction [5]. - **Investment Strategies**: - Monitor market sentiment and position adjustments after the holiday [5]. - Keep an eye on key events such as Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, as these will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policies and gold prices [5]. - Consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with potential short-term volatility following the holiday [5].