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外卖与堂食的黄金平衡点
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东吴证券:餐饮行业中外卖与堂食的“黄金平衡点”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 08:43
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities emphasizes the increasing importance of online channels in the restaurant industry, particularly the balance between takeout and dine-in services to enhance profitability and efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Online Channels - Online channels are becoming a key growth engine for the restaurant industry, with takeout revenue potentially reaching 60-70% for fast food and coffee sectors, while traditional dining experiences are declining [1][3]. - National restaurant revenue growth is slowing, with a reported increase of only 3.3% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to a more stable growth phase [1]. Group 2: Takeout Adaptability Across Different Formats - The adaptability of various restaurant formats to takeout is ranked from highest to lowest: beverages & fast food > casual dining > hot pot, with takeout revenue for coffee and fast food potentially reaching 50-70% [2]. - The adaptability is influenced by the type of service required, frequency of consumption, and the complexity of delivery logistics [2]. Group 3: Balancing Takeout and Dine-in - A healthy takeout ratio is crucial for restaurant brands, as it can significantly improve operational efficiency and brand competitiveness; however, over-reliance on takeout can lead to a loss of brand identity and profitability [3]. - The optimal takeout revenue ratio for fast food and coffee is suggested to be 60-70%, while for traditional dining, it is 30-40% to avoid operational inefficiencies [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Internal Growth - Restaurants should establish a takeout revenue threshold and innovate their takeout offerings while also focusing on building a proprietary membership system to convert external traffic into internal loyalty [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," with a focus on balancing takeout and dine-in strategies tailored to consumer trends and brand positioning [5]. - Recommended companies include Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, Guming, Mixue Group, Haidilao, and Yum China, with additional attention on Green Tea Group, Dashihua, Tongqinglou, Guangzhou Restaurant, Jiumaojiu, and Chabaidao [5].