Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1,338.21 billion CNY in 2025, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 271 billion CNY for 2025, 438 billion CNY for 2026, and 525 billion CNY for 2027 [3][11] - The target market value is set at 567.6 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 195.39 HKD per share [3][11] - The report highlights the synergy effects from the main platform and food delivery services, indicating a positive growth outlook [10][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,084.66 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [5] - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to 1,338.21 billion CNY by 2025, representing a growth rate of 15.48% [5] - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 24.17 billion CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 132.82% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.1% by 2027 [5] Business Segment Insights - The company's retail segment is projected to maintain steady growth, with a revenue forecast of 1,154.98 billion CNY for 2024 [12] - The food delivery segment is expected to continue reducing losses, with a revenue increase of 213.7% year-on-year in Q3 [10][11] - The report notes that the collaboration between the main platform and food delivery services has led to a significant increase in traffic and user conversion rates [10][11] Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 9X PE valuation for the retail and new business segments for 2026, reflecting a competitive market position [3][11] - The company's market capitalization is calculated based on comparable companies, indicating a favorable valuation relative to peers [14]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618) and raises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,331.2 billion, 1,409.4 billion, and 1,485.6 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 27.1 billion, 43.8 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan for the same period [1][2] Group 1 - The company expects JD Retail's revenue for Q3 2025 to reach 248.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, driven by increased traffic from the peak season of food delivery, although partially offset by the base effect of national subsidies [2] - JD Retail's Q3 operating profit is projected to be 13.67 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 5.5%, benefiting from improved traffic growth and cost structure optimization due to synergies with food delivery [2] - The overall outlook for JD Retail remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth driven by synergies from food delivery optimization [2] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its target market value to 554.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 190.96 HKD, based on a 9XPE valuation for retail and new businesses in 2026 [1]