2025Q4 业绩前瞻：零售承压见底，新业务亏 损收窄 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,307,627 | 1,380,807 | 1,466,767 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.80% | 12.84% | 5.60% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） %） 净利润（百万元） 同比Non-（GAAP | 35,200 | 47,827 | 26,305 | 28,935 | 35,590 | | 同比（%） | 24.73% | 35.90% | -45.00% | 10.00% | 23.00% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） PE ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618) and raises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,331.2 billion, 1,409.4 billion, and 1,485.6 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 27.1 billion, 43.8 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan for the same period [1][2] Group 1 - The company expects JD Retail's revenue for Q3 2025 to reach 248.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, driven by increased traffic from the peak season of food delivery, although partially offset by the base effect of national subsidies [2] - JD Retail's Q3 operating profit is projected to be 13.67 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 5.5%, benefiting from improved traffic growth and cost structure optimization due to synergies with food delivery [2] - The overall outlook for JD Retail remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth driven by synergies from food delivery optimization [2] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its target market value to 554.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 190.96 HKD, based on a 9XPE valuation for retail and new businesses in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD.com Inc (9618.HK) with a target price of 167 HKD, reflecting a 12x PE for 2026 [4][9]. Core Insights - JD's retail business continues to improve operational efficiency, with a significant increase in daily takeaway orders during the 618 shopping festival, which is expected to accelerate retail growth [1][13]. - The revenue for Q2 2025 reached 356.7 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, the highest growth rate in three years [10]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.4 billion RMB, down 49% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in the takeaway business [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for JD.com are adjusted to 1,332.36 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 15% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025 are set at 26.54 billion RMB, reflecting a significant decrease from previous forecasts [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 15.88%, indicating a continuous improvement in operational efficiency over 13 consecutive quarters [12]. Business Segment Performance - JD Retail's operating profit for Q2 2025 was 13.9 billion RMB, up 37.9% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 4.5% [11]. - The logistics segment reported an operating profit of 2 billion RMB, down 10.3% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 3.8% [11]. - New business operations incurred a loss of 14.8 billion RMB in Q2 2025, reflecting increased investments in the takeaway sector [11]. User Engagement - Active user numbers and shopping frequency both grew over 40% year-on-year, indicating strong customer engagement and retention [10].

Revenue Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 356.7 billion yuan in the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 22% [1] - JD Retail revenue was 310.1 billion yuan, up 21% year-over-year, with self-operated categories benefiting from national subsidies, increasing by 23% [1] - JD Logistics revenue reached 51.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17%, significantly accelerated compared to Q1, driven by strong retail growth [1] New Business Development - New business revenue was 13.9 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 199%, but incurred an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan primarily due to the impact of the takeaway business [2] - The peak daily order volume exceeded 25 million, leading to a notable increase in user traffic, with QAC and purchase frequency both up 40% year-over-year [2] - The company is enhancing system capabilities and deepening e-commerce synergies to drive more GMV conversion [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 7.4 billion yuan, down 49% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1% [2] - Retail business operating profit margin (OPM) was 4.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain efficiency [2] - New business OPM was -107%, reflecting increased investment in the takeaway segment, with expectations of further losses during the peak season [2] Future Outlook - The company slightly raised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,335.4 billion, 1,420.2 billion, and 1,488.7 billion yuan, with adjustments of 2%, 1%, and 0% respectively [3] - Due to higher-than-expected losses in the new business segment, the forecast for annual operating losses was adjusted from 16.4 billion to 42.7 billion yuan [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were lowered to 29.2 billion, 40.2 billion, and 56 billion yuan, with adjustments of -35%, -23%, and -2% respectively [3]

Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 FY2025 financial report highlights robust growth in a challenging market, with total revenue reaching RMB 356.66 billion, a 22.4% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of RMB 335.45 billion [1] - Despite a slight decline in net profit, adjusted net profit under non-GAAP was RMB 74 billion, indicating ongoing profitability after financial restructuring [1] - The adjusted earnings per ADS were RMB 4.97, significantly exceeding the market estimate of RMB 3.78, showcasing strong earnings stability [1] Retail Segment Performance - The retail segment reported net revenue of RMB 3.101 trillion, a year-over-year growth of 20.6%, reflecting strong growth momentum [2] - Operating income for JD Retail reached RMB 139 billion, up from RMB 101 billion in Q2 2024, demonstrating significant improvement [2] - The operating profit margin increased from 3.9% in Q2 2024 to 4.5% in Q2 2025, further validating the profitability and operational efficiency of JD Retail [2] Financial Data Summary - JD Retail net revenues rose from RMB 257.07 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 310.08 billion in Q2 2025 [3] - JD Logistics net revenues increased from RMB 44.21 billion to RMB 51.56 billion during the same period [3] - New Businesses segment revenues surged from RMB 4.64 billion to RMB 13.85 billion, indicating strong growth in this area [3]

Core Insights - JD Group reported strong performance in Q2 of FY2025 with total revenue reaching 356.66 billion RMB, a significant increase of 22.4% year-over-year, surpassing market analysts' expectations of 335.45 billion RMB [1][3] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion RMB, down from 12.6 billion RMB in the same quarter last year, but adjusted net profit under non-GAAP was 7.4 billion RMB, indicating a degree of profitability despite the decline [1] - Adjusted earnings per ADS were 4.97 RMB, exceeding market expectations of 3.78 RMB, reflecting JD's stability in profitability and potential to outperform market forecasts [1] JD Retail Performance - JD Retail achieved net revenue of 3.101 trillion RMB, a year-over-year growth of 20.6%, demonstrating robust business performance [2] - Operating income for JD Retail was 13.9 billion RMB, significantly up from 10.1 billion RMB in Q2 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [2] - The operating profit margin for JD Retail increased from 3.9% in Q2 2024 to 4.5% in Q2 2025, further confirming the business's profitability and operational effectiveness [2] Financial Overview - Total consolidated net revenues for JD Group were 356.66 billion RMB, with JD Retail contributing 310.08 billion RMB and JD Logistics contributing 51.56 billion RMB [3] - The cost of revenues for JD Retail was 256.53 billion RMB, while JD Logistics incurred costs of 46.23 billion RMB, reflecting the scale of operations [3] - Total consolidated income before tax was 6.7 billion RMB, indicating a decline from the previous year but still showcasing the company's overall financial health [3]

Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 356.66 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 22.4%, surpassing market expectations of 335.45 billion RMB [1][2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion RMB, down from 12.6 billion RMB in Q2 2024, indicating a decline in profitability [1][2] - Adjusted earnings per ADS were 4.97 RMB, exceeding market estimates of 3.78 RMB, showcasing the company's ability to outperform expectations in terms of earnings stability [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - JD Retail achieved net revenues of 310.07 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a 20.6% increase from 257.07 billion RMB in Q2 2024 [2] - JD Logistics reported revenues of 51.56 billion RMB, up from 44.21 billion RMB in the same period last year [2] - New Businesses segment saw revenues rise to 13.85 billion RMB from 4.64 billion RMB year-over-year [2] Profitability Metrics - JD Retail's operating income increased to 13.94 billion RMB in Q2 2025, compared to 10.11 billion RMB in Q2 2024 [2] - The operating profit margin for JD Retail improved from 3.9% in Q2 2024 to 4.5% in Q2 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1][2] - Total consolidated income from operations showed a loss of 82 million RMB in Q2 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 10.5 billion RMB in Q2 2024 [2] Overall Performance - Despite a decline in certain profit metrics, JD Group's overall revenue and core business performance remain strong, reflecting its leading position and growth potential in the e-commerce market [1][2]

Group 1 - JD Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years [1] - Core retail business showed strong performance with a 20.6% year-on-year growth and an operating profit margin of 4.5%, the highest in promotional quarters [1] - New business revenue surged by 199%, primarily driven by JD's food delivery services [1] Group 2 - User traffic, active user count, and purchase frequency all saw significant growth, with active user count increasing by over 40% year-on-year for seven consecutive quarters [1] - During the "618" shopping festival, JD's overall order volume exceeded 2.2 billion, with daily active users reaching a historical high [1] - JD Supermarket launched new products and enhanced user experience through supply chain innovations, including the introduction of "JD label" products [2] Group 3 - JD's food delivery service achieved over 25 million daily orders, covering 350 cities with over 1.5 million quality restaurant partners [2] - The company has invested over 150 billion yuan in R&D since 2017, with supply chain infrastructure assets nearing 170 billion yuan [2] - JD plans to recruit 35,000 positions in 2026 and has invested 7 billion yuan in youth apartments in Beijing [3] Group 4 - JD has employed over 4,000 disabled individuals and supports their employment through training and operational guidance [3] - The company aims to introduce 1,000 overseas brands within three years, targeting a cumulative sales growth of 10 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - JD Group reported a strong revenue growth of 22.4% year-on-year for Q2 2025, reaching 356.7 billion RMB (approximately 49.8 billion USD), surpassing market expectations and setting a new record for growth in the past three years [1] - The core retail business of JD Group continued to accelerate, with significant growth in most product categories, particularly in daily necessities and fresh food, which saw a 16.4% increase in revenue [1] - The service revenue experienced a notable increase of 29.1%, while the new business segment, particularly JD's food delivery service, saw a dramatic growth of 199% year-on-year [1] User Engagement and Performance - The number of active users and shopping frequency on JD's platform increased by over 40% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in active users [1] - JD's retail revenue grew by 20.6% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 4.5%, the highest recorded for any major promotional quarter in the company's history [1] Future Outlook - JD's food delivery business is developing healthily, with growth in order volume, merchant numbers, and full-time rider recruitment, effectively collaborating with JD's retail and other existing businesses to achieve initial strategic goals [2] - The company aims to focus on user experience, cost, and efficiency while maintaining the core retail business as the foundation of its operations, alongside ongoing investments in new growth areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a 14.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, driven by national subsidies and the "618" promotional event, with a projected adjusted net profit of 56 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's core e-commerce revenue is anticipated to maintain strong growth momentum [1] - JD Retail's revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q2, with the growth rate of electronic products likely outpacing that of daily necessities [1] - Despite some regions experiencing a temporary pause in national subsidies during the "618" event, the overall impact on the company's business has been minimal, with subsidies expected to continue until the end of the year [1] Group 2: Investment in Delivery Business - The company has made significant investments in the delivery market, with Q2 expenditures estimated at around 10 billion yuan [2] - During the "618" period, the company reported a peak daily order volume exceeding 25 million [2] - The delivery business is expected to further expand losses in Q3, although operational efficiency improvements may offset some of these losses [2] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - The target price has been adjusted to 146 HKD / 38 USD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] - The company's current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 7.3x P/E, which is considered low [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for Q2 has been revised down to 56 billion yuan, while revenue predictions remain largely unchanged [2]