Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a 14.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, driven by national subsidies and the "618" promotional event, with a projected adjusted net profit of 56 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's core e-commerce revenue is anticipated to maintain strong growth momentum [1] - JD Retail's revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q2, with the growth rate of electronic products likely outpacing that of daily necessities [1] - Despite some regions experiencing a temporary pause in national subsidies during the "618" event, the overall impact on the company's business has been minimal, with subsidies expected to continue until the end of the year [1] Group 2: Investment in Delivery Business - The company has made significant investments in the delivery market, with Q2 expenditures estimated at around 10 billion yuan [2] - During the "618" period, the company reported a peak daily order volume exceeding 25 million [2] - The delivery business is expected to further expand losses in Q3, although operational efficiency improvements may offset some of these losses [2] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - The target price has been adjusted to 146 HKD / 38 USD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] - The company's current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 7.3x P/E, which is considered low [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for Q2 has been revised down to 56 billion yuan, while revenue predictions remain largely unchanged [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月16日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | 宏观快评:4 月金融数据解读-贸易冲击初显 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-特别国债放量发行 策略专题:AI 赋能资产配置（十四）-借力大模型应对特朗普言论风险信 号 行业与公司 杰瑞股份(002353.SZ) 财报点评:油服设备龙头，国际化战略稳步推进 徐工机械(000425.SZ) 财报点评:盈利能力稳步提升，海外业务快速发展 杭叉集团(603298.SH) 财报点评:国际化布局效果显著，智慧物流打开成 长空间 特变电工(600089.SH) 财报点评:输变电、能源业务稳步推进，多晶硅板 块盈利承压 第一太阳能(FIRST SOLAR)(FSLR.O) 财报点评:组件销量稳步增长，在手 订单保持充裕 京东集团-SW(09618.HK) 海外公司财报点评:零售业务表现亮眼，关注外 卖进展 迈瑞医疗(300760.SZ) 财报点评:2025 年一季度业绩环比快速增长，国 内业务有望逐季改善 | 主要市场指数 | | 05 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘指数 | 涨跌幅% | | 道琼斯 | 33 ...

Group 1: Core Business Performance - JD Group achieved revenue of 301.1 billion RMB (approximately 41.5 billion USD) in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - The retail business generated revenue of 263.8 billion RMB with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%, reaffirming its core position within the group [2] - The growth in JD's retail business is supported by an overall recovery in the consumption environment, with a reported 4.6% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in Q1 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Ecosystem Development - JD is implementing a "100 billion plan" to support brand merchants, aiming for significant sales milestones for new products, thereby enhancing the platform's product diversity and user experience [3] - The company is focusing on an open platform strategy, reducing entry barriers for third-party merchants, which has led to double-digit growth in both user numbers and order volume [3] - JD's logistics network, consisting of over 1,600 self-operated warehouses and 2,000 third-party cloud warehouses, has become a crucial support for its core business, achieving revenue of 46.97 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [4] Group 3: Expansion into New Markets - JD's entry into the food delivery market represents a strategic breakthrough, with significant subsidies for merchants and riders to enhance service quality and attract users [5][6] - The food delivery service has seen explosive growth, with daily order volume surpassing 1 million shortly after launch, indicating strong market acceptance [6] - The integration of high-frequency food delivery with other retail categories is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency and user engagement [6][7] Group 4: Long-term Vision and Innovation - JD's approach emphasizes the importance of technology and innovation as foundational drivers, with substantial investments in R&D totaling 145.6 billion RMB [8][9] - The company aims to evolve from a transaction platform to a comprehensive urban service operator, leveraging its logistics capabilities to support a broader range of services [7][9] - JD's growth strategy highlights the need for a virtuous cycle of efficiency improvement and value creation through technological empowerment and ecosystem collaboration [9]