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外汇储备连续5个月增长背后:美元贬值“跷跷板效应”隐现
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-07 14:35
Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have shown a steady increase, reaching $328.53 billion by the end of May, marking a $3.6 billion rise from April, and continuing a five-month upward trend [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the fifth consecutive month, influenced by fiscal and monetary policies of major economies and economic growth prospects [3]. - The increase in reserves is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, with an 8.4% decline in the dollar index over the first five months of the year [2][5]. - The valuation effect of currency exchange rates and asset prices has led to a slight increase in reserves, despite fluctuations in global financial asset prices [3][5]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - China has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7.383 million ounces by the end of May, a rise of 60,000 ounces from April, marking seven consecutive months of gold accumulation [3][8]. - The global demand for gold among central banks is rising due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with expectations that central banks will add approximately 1,000 tons of gold reserves this year [3][10]. - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves remains low at 7%, compared to the global average of about 15%, indicating potential for further increases in gold holdings [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Financial analysts predict that China's foreign exchange reserves will continue to exhibit stable fluctuations, supported by improving economic conditions and trade relations with the US [6][7]. - The expectation of continued depreciation of the US dollar is likely to support the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, as a negative correlation exists between the dollar index and reserve levels [6][7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are expected to drive further demand for gold as a safe-haven asset among central banks globally [4][10].