Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) as China continues to develop its economy and expand its offshore market while maintaining stability in its onshore market [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - Since 2000, China's GDP share in global GDP has increased from 6% to 19%, marking a 13 percentage point rise [1]. - China has surpassed the U.S. to become the largest contributor to global goods trade, accounting for 33% of global manufacturing value added [1]. - The RMB's share in global financial activities and official reserves remains low at around 2%, despite China's significant role in the global economy [1][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape has shifted post-2022 with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, increasing the willingness of emerging market central banks to diversify their assets, potentially opening doors for RMB internationalization [2]. Group 3: Determinants of Reserve Currency - Key factors influencing the choice of reserve currency include inertia, economic scale, financial market depth, currency creditworthiness, and increasingly, geopolitical considerations [3][4]. - The inertia of reserve currencies suggests that changes in reserve composition occur slowly, with adjustments typically under 10% in a single year [3]. - Economic scale is a crucial determinant, where an increase in GDP share can lead to a disproportionate rise in reserve currency share once a critical threshold is reached [4]. Group 4: Insights from Historical Currency Transitions - Historical transitions of dominant currencies, such as the shift from the British Pound to the U.S. Dollar, illustrate that becoming a dominant currency is a lengthy process [5][6]. - Policy actions and economic conditions significantly influence the rise and fall of currency internationalization [6]. Group 5: RMB Internationalization Strategy - The RMB's internationalization may focus on expanding the offshore market while keeping the onshore market relatively stable, given the larger scale of the onshore market [8][10]. - The RMB's role in foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to grow, particularly in light of China's ongoing trade surpluses and competitive manufacturing sector [9]. - The Chinese government is actively working to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar, developing cross-border payment systems and promoting RMB-denominated commodity trading [9][10].