今年以来，美国新一届政府奉行单边主义、保护主义，违反世界贸易组织（WTO）最惠国待遇原则和 约束税率义务，单方面突破"减让表"规定的税率，提出所谓的"对等关税"措施，严重冲击全球经贸秩 序，损害各国正当权益，受到美国内外广泛反对和质疑。日前，韩国总统李在明不满美国加征关税的施 压，担心未采取任何保障措施就接受美方提出的投资要求，会引发韩国金融危机。 韩美7月底曾达成贸易协议框架，但在具体执行方案上尚未最终达成一致。当时，韩方承诺将成立3500 亿美元规模的对美投资基金，以换取美方将对韩产进口品加征的"对等关税"税率从25%下调至15%。但 在后续谈判中，美方要求韩方在投资基金中提高现金直接投资比例。就此，韩方要求美方签署韩美货币 互换协议，以稳控韩元对美元汇率，但美方态度消极，导致谈判陷入僵局。9月22日，李在明接受媒体 采访时表示，在韩美未签署货币互换协议的情况下，韩方若按照美方要求以现金形式对美投资3500亿美 元，可能引发类似于1997年的金融危机。 （作者系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员） （文章来源：经济日报） 韩方的担忧符合经济逻辑和现实挑战。首先，这表达了韩方对当今国际货币体系不公平不合理的 ...

在当今全球化的经济格局下，美元霸权一直是国际金融体系中不容忽视的存在。自布雷顿森林体系确立 了美元与黄金挂钩、其他货币与美元挂钩的国际货币制度以来，美元逐渐成为了世界主要储备货币和国 际贸易结算的主导货币。然而，随着数字货币的兴起，这一传统格局正面临前所未有的挑战。那么，美 元霸权最终会败给数字货币吗？这是一个值得深入探讨的问题。 美元霸权的形成有着复杂的历史和经济背景。第二次世界大战后，美国凭借其强大的经济和军事实力， 在国际货币体系中占据了主导地位。布雷顿森林体系的建立，使得美元成为了国际货币体系的核心。尽 管该体系在 20 世纪 70 年代解体，但美元在国际贸易和金融交易中的主导地位却得以延续。美国通过控 制全球石油贸易等大宗商品的定价权，进一步巩固了美元的地位。各国为了进行国际贸易和储备资产， 不得不大量持有美元，这使得美国能够通过货币政策和金融市场对全球经济施加巨大影响。 数字货币的兴起无疑为国际货币体系的变革带来了新的机遇和挑战，但美元霸权的根基依然稳固。要实 现数字货币对美元霸权的取代，还需要克服技术、监管、政治等多方面的障碍。在未来的发展中，数字 货币和美元可能会在国际金融体系中并存，相互竞争 ...

导读 关键词：稳定币；代币化；国际货币体系；人民币国际化 稳定币虽依托区块链技术实现了跨境支付的高效性与低成本，但其货币职能存在局限性：在计价单位上 仅是法币的"数字化映射"，在交易媒介上依赖特定场景，在价值贮藏上依赖技术共识而非制度保障。短 期来看，稳定币可能强化美元化趋势，冲击部分国家的货币主权；长期而言，因其缺乏货币单一性、弹 性与完整性，难以撼动国际货币体系多极化发展的根本方向。面对这一趋势，中国需加快监管框架建 设，推动离岸人民币稳定币发展，促进其与数字人民币协同，并深化债券市场开放，为人民币国际化筑 牢基础。 摘要 受益于多种因素，近年来全球稳定币迅猛发展。区块链分布式记账的出现为稳定币提供了技术支撑；加 密货币市场的快速发展丰富了稳定币的使用场景；跨境支付技术的成熟拓宽了稳定币的交易场合；摆脱 对传统银行账户的依赖，优化了部分地区的支付选择。然而，当前稳定币并未完全展现货币的本质属 性，其在记账单位方面仅是法定货币计价职能的"数字化映射"，计价对象局限于其他加密数字货币；在 交易媒介方面具有明显的场景依赖性，交易场景局限于数字资产生态系统；在价值贮藏方面是"技术 +信任共识"的产物，并不具有绝对 ...

中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币2025年逆势上涨，源于多方面原因。外部方面，美国例外论破产， 美元信誉受损，特朗普交易转为衰退预期，前9个月美元指数跌9.5%，非美货币受益；特朗普关税政策被裁定违 法，提交最高法院。内部层面，中国经济改善，房地产与地方债务问题缓解，科创亮点推动资产重估，政策对外 部冲击有预判有预案，IMF上调中国经济增长预期。同时，中美经贸磋商缓和，削减关税并推进新协议，支撑汇 率。美联储政策上，2023年9月开启降息，2025年9月恢复降25个基点，现转向关注充分就业，面临政策两难与独 立性被特朗普侵蚀的问题，中长期或致美元进一步走弱。展望人民币汇率，当前人民币汇率未明显偏离均衡汇 率，市场无显著升值压力。未来利好与不确定性因素并存，利好包括美联储降息、美元信用受损、中美双方达成 共识、中国经济持续向好等，不确定性有美联储降息的节奏和力度、磋商变数、经济韧性未知、美国高法的判断 结果等，市场需强化风险中性，不宜单边押注。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛 中国银行研究院副院长鄂志寰分析，从长周期视角来看，人民币汇率受美联储政策影响经历了不同阶段：美联储 降息，人民币汇率升值。2024 ...

自2000年以来，中国GDP在全球GDP总量中的占比从6%升至19%，增加了13个百分点。在国际贸易领 域，中国已超过美国，成为全球货物贸易流动的最大贡献国。中国在全球人口中占比17%，而在全球制 造业增加值中占比33%。对于140多个国家而言，中国是比美国更大的贸易伙伴。 中国在全球经济和贸易舞台上的主导作用越发明显。相比之下，人民币在国际金融活动和官方储备中的 使用占比仍处于低位。 除了全球经济背景之外，近年来全球地缘政治格局也在发生变化。2022年俄乌冲突之后，新兴市场央行 资产多元化的意愿增强。尽管仍处早期阶段，但新兴市场国家资产多元化的需求有望为未来几年人民币 加速国际化打开大门。 专注发展离岸市场，同时保持在岸市场基本不变。 人民币在全球金融领域所占份额依然偏低，与当前中国在全球经济和贸易中的重要地位形成了鲜明对 比。如果中国能够继续发展经济、避免危机、扩大外资易于参与的人民币计价资产并建立市场信心，那 么人民币在官方储备中所占份额就有可能显著突破当前2%的份额。探索国际化之路，中国可能会明显 扩大并放开离岸市场（CNH），同时保持在岸市场（CNY）基本不变，对外直接投资（FDI）在人民币 国际化 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The September market trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high-level consolidation phase after a continuous rise. In the long run, China's capital market is at the beginning of a strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology growth components, are more offensive with large fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend blue-chip components, are more defensive with small fluctuations and relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from -0.11% to -0.25%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest increasing in some contracts and decreasing in others [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also declined, with decreases ranging from -0.24% to -0.34%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.55% to 0.65%. The trading volume and open interest had different changes, with open interest generally increasing [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from -0.44% to -0.72%. The trading volume and open interest changed, with open interest showing a mixed pattern of increase and decrease [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of different contracts had different changes compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index decreased by -0.15%, the CSI 500 index decreased by -0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by -0.24%. Other major domestic and overseas indexes also had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different price changes, with some industries rising and some falling [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes had different values and changes compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic and overseas major indexes, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, etc., had different degrees of increase or decrease [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including 19 measures in five aspects, and proposed to build pilot cities for new consumption formats [2] - Trump said he would talk to Chinese leaders, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had no specific information to provide [2] - The central bank governor pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and mutual restraint of several sovereign currencies [2] - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit in China" is a misreading, and the policy only optimizes the review process [2] 6. Industry Information - A ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan in supporting power base investment [2] - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [2] - Suzhou released an "AI +" urban action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises by the end of 2026, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the core scale of the intelligent economy industry [2] - The China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was officially launched, with 15 initial signing units [2] - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was officially launched [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for reform in global financial governance, focusing on the international monetary system, cross-border payment systems, global financial stability, and governance of international financial organizations [1][3][4] Group 1: International Monetary System - The article discusses the direction for a new round of international monetary system reform, highlighting the need to reduce over-reliance on a single sovereign currency and its negative impacts, promoting healthy competition among a few strong sovereign currencies [1] - It suggests that the future international monetary system may evolve towards a coexistence of a few sovereign currencies that compete and balance each other [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Systems - The article reviews the improvement of the global cross-border payment system, noting that traditional systems face increasing challenges, leading to a global call for enhancements [1] - It states that the cross-border payment system is developing towards greater efficiency, security, inclusiveness, and diversity, with a trend expected to continue [1] - The article highlights the establishment of a multi-channel, widely covered RMB cross-border payment clearing network in China over the past decade [1] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The article outlines the strengthening of financial regulatory rules post-global financial crisis, emphasizing the importance of a multi-layered financial safety net [3] - It mentions that China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 30 countries and regions, contributing to the global financial safety net [3] - The article notes that China has actively participated in the formulation and implementation of international financial regulatory standards, being one of the few economies to fully implement Basel III [3] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - The article points out that the current shareholding structure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not reflect the relative positions of member countries in the global economy [4] - It stresses the urgency of adjusting the shareholding ratios to enhance the legitimacy and representation of the IMF [4] - The article calls for major international financial organizations to strengthen their economic and financial oversight functions and to coordinate macroeconomic policies to maintain stability in the international financial system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sustainability of the dollar system and the so-called "dollar trap," emphasizing that while the dollar's dominance is being questioned, there are currently no viable alternatives to replace it [2][22]. Group 1: Formation of the "Dollar Trap" - The "dollar trap" is supported by three pillars: the necessity for emerging economies to hold foreign reserves, the unique status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven, and the lack of alternative safe assets [2][3][12]. - Emerging markets have accumulated significant foreign reserves, with their share rising from 37.5% to 67.2% between 2000 and 2013, driven by the need for self-insurance and currency stability [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the "Dollar Trap" - Emerging countries voluntarily enter the "dollar trap" by accumulating dollar reserves to pursue export-led growth, but they face continuous devaluation risks [18]. - The "dollar trap" leads to significant potential losses for countries holding U.S. debt, as their currencies appreciate against the dollar, and U.S. inflation erodes the real purchasing power of dollar assets [19][20]. Group 3: Current Changes in the "Dollar Trap" - Since 2015, emerging markets have shown improved financial stability and reduced the necessity to accumulate foreign reserves, indicating a shift in their economic models [24]. - The credibility of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset is weakening due to deteriorating economic fundamentals and fiscal discipline in the U.S., raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [26][27]. - The TINA (There Is No Alternative) framework is being challenged as emerging markets explore alternatives to the dollar, including the yuan, gold, and bitcoin [29][30].

Background of Forex Futures - Forex futures originated in the 1970s, driven by the significant changes in the international monetary system, particularly the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4][5] - The Bretton Woods system established fixed exchange rates between currencies and the US dollar, which was pegged to gold, minimizing foreign exchange risk [4] - The collapse of this system in 1973 and the subsequent Jamaica Agreement in 1976 allowed countries to choose their exchange rate systems freely, increasing foreign exchange risk and the demand for risk management [4][5] Development of Forex Futures in the US - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched the first forex futures contracts in May 1972, marking the establishment of the forex futures market [6] - The market expanded rapidly after the Jamaica Agreement, with other exchanges like NYMEX and NYFE entering the forex futures business [6] - By 1982, standardized forex options were introduced, further diversifying the forex derivatives market [6][7] Current State of Forex Futures in the US - The CME is the primary market for forex futures and options in the US, continuously introducing new forex derivatives to meet diverse investor needs [2][10] - In 2024, the CME's average daily trading volume reached 26.5 million contracts, a 9% increase from 2023, with forex products averaging 1.03 million contracts daily, an 8% year-on-year growth [14] - The most traded forex futures in 2024 included the Euro (258,000 contracts), Japanese Yen (192,000 contracts), and British Pound (120,000 contracts) [14] Trends in Forex Futures Development - There is an increasing demand for forex derivatives due to heightened market volatility and the need for effective risk management [16] - Emerging market currency derivatives are expected to see significant growth as economies develop and trade volumes increase, particularly in regions like Latin America [16]

Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the structural flaws of the current international monetary system and the transformative potential of stablecoins, particularly in enhancing the efficiency of dollar transactions in cross-border payments [4][18][19] - It outlines the historical evolution of the international monetary system, highlighting three significant phases: the "golden dollar" era under the Bretton Woods system, the "debt dollar" phase driven by debt expansion, and the emergence of "dollar stablecoins" as a technological innovation [4][10][18] Group 2: Golden Dollar: Establishment and Termination of the Bretton Woods System - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's peg to gold, allowing it to function as a global trade and reserve currency, but this system faced inherent contradictions leading to its collapse [5][9] - The "Triffin Dilemma" emerged as a critical issue, where the demand for dollars in international trade outpaced the growth of gold reserves, ultimately resulting in the suspension of dollar convertibility to gold in 1971 [9][12] Group 3: Debt Dollar: Modern Credit Currency Era and Its Flaws - The transition to a "debt dollar" system marked a shift where the dollar was no longer tied to gold, leading to a reliance on debt for currency creation, which has resulted in significant global financial implications [10][12] - The article identifies three phases of the debt dollar system, including the rise of global dollar loans, the debt explosion post-2008 financial crisis, and the surge in U.S. government debt during the COVID-19 pandemic [15][17] Group 4: Dollar Stablecoins: Technological Innovation and Future of the International Monetary System - Stablecoins are positioned as a solution to enhance the efficiency of dollar transactions, potentially restoring confidence in the dollar amidst concerns over its debt issues and geopolitical tensions [19][20] - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of stablecoin transactions, which reached $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined transaction volumes of Visa and Mastercard, although most of this volume is still tied to crypto assets [21] - It discusses the theoretical and technical foundations of stablecoins, including their ability to separate the functions of currency, and the underlying technologies that support their operation [20][21]