人民日报海外版记者 张红 受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底 均创历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系 正在动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。人民日报海外版邀请中国现代国际 关系研究院研究员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美 元/盎司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七 成，创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼 克松政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油价格冲击的影响，黄金价格从1971年8 月的每盎司35美元一路冲高，于1980年1月触及每盎司835美元的峰值。 【解读】 陈文玲：2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行 ...

受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七成， 创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼克松 政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油价格冲击的影响，黄金价格从1971年8月的 每盎司35美元一路冲高，于1980年1月触及每盎司835美元的峰值。 "乱世黄金"再次得到验证 "乱世"不一定是战争，也可以是无序。世界正处于百年未有之大变局，也是大乱局，变 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中央经济工作会议 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行[1]。本次会议客观分析了中国经济面临的发展形势，不回避困难挑战，我们认为会议突 出问题导向、目标非常清晰，直接回应了市场和社会对消费、投资、房地产、企业账款、市场竞争秩序等一系列热点问题的广泛关切。 在政策工具的选择上，本次会议体现出更加注重质效的导向、工具的选择范围也更丰富。明年的政策取向是"稳中求进、提质增效"。其 中"提质增效"是今年的新要求，或意味着明年宏观政策会更加注重落地的效果，而不是仅强调总量扩张。我们在年度展望报告《"增 减"之间》[2]中也强调了2026年可能呈现总量政策适度加力，结构方面"增减"和"供需"同时发力以实现合理增长的观点。 2025.12.12 | 中金研究 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 适度加力，增减并行——12月政治局会议点评 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[3]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质 ...

国际货币体系的历史演变 国际货币是在国际市场上充当一般等价物或行使一般等价物职能的货币。国际货币体系的演变是不同时 期货币因素与非货币因素综合作用的结果。不同阶段的国际货币体系运行特征不尽相同，国际金本位 制、布雷顿森林体系、牙买加体系在一定程度上促进了国际经济社会发展，同时也暴露出各自存在的问 题，为未来改革提供了镜鉴。 作者：徐德顺，商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员 国际货币因国际贸易而生，于15世纪地理大发现、国际贸易伙伴大扩容时为早期重商主义者所关注，迄 今已有数百年历史。国际货币体系是国际体系的重要组成部分，由一系列国际货币制度构成，其形成与 发展受到货币内在规律、市场经济需求和地缘政治博弈等多重因素影响。国际货币体系经历了二战前的 国际金本位制、二战后的布雷顿森林体系和牙买加体系三大阶段。其中，牙买加体系的主要特征是 以"脱锚"的主权信用货币为主要国际储备资产，其公平合理性一直以来受到广泛质疑。面对地缘政治博 弈加剧、市场创新加速的现实挑战，国际社会应凝聚共识，促进国际货币体系朝着更加稳健、更有效 率、更加公平合理的方向改革。 一、单一紊乱的国际金本位制 三、令人堪忧的牙买加体系 布雷顿森林体系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "New Monetary Landscape" discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, the inherent contradictions of the current system, and the progress and lessons of RMB internationalization, proposing strategies to advance it [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Lessons - The authors provide a detailed analysis of the rise of the US dollar and the decline of the British pound, emphasizing the historical significance of the Marshall and Dodge Plans in saving the Bretton Woods system and reinforcing the dollar's international status [3]. - The book highlights two critical steps in the dollar's internationalization: the entry of major US banks into foreign markets and the Federal Reserve's support for dollar-denominated commercial paper, leading to over 50% of US trade being settled in dollars by the 1920s [4]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Strategies - The book argues that RMB internationalization must be grounded in China's domestic economy, maintaining monetary policy independence and macroeconomic stability [5]. - It suggests that cultivating and developing the RMB's pricing function is crucial, with practical paths including promoting RMB pricing through economic aid to African countries, addressing trade deficits with neighboring countries, and facilitating RMB transactions in commodity trading [5][6]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis and Challenges - The authors analyze Japan's failed yen internationalization efforts, attributing the failure to the inability to maintain a stable yen exchange rate, which diminished its international value [5]. - The book posits that the current international monetary system's sustainability hinges on whether peripheral countries will continue to purchase US debt, which is influenced by the US's growing external debt and trade deficits [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Cooperation and Regional Currency - The book advocates for regional monetary cooperation to promote domestic financial reform and open up, aiming to establish the RMB as a regional international currency in Asia [6]. - It emphasizes the dangers of financial liberalization combined with rigid exchange rates, suggesting that the interaction between RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization requires more detailed discussion [7]. Group 5: Global Reserve Asset Diversification - The authors note that diversification of reserve assets among US allies cannot effectively mitigate systemic risks, as demonstrated by the sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine conflict [8]. - They argue for a strategic shift towards a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while reducing asymmetries in dollar assets and liabilities [8].

Group 1: Strategy - The international monetary system exhibits a stable "center-periphery" structure, where dominant currencies have changed over time, but the underlying order remains consistent. This order is rooted in trust and the "high-order belief" in sovereign currencies, which are supported by national credit and legal tender, creating liquidity premiums and network effects, thus exhibiting natural monopoly characteristics [6]. - The formation of central currencies relies on economic, financial, and institutional advantages, maintained through positive feedback loops. However, when debt expansion exceeds fiscal and institutional constraints, emerging countries may seize the opportunity to rise as old centers decline. Currently, the foundation of the dollar system is weakening, and global economic diversification is accelerating. If the RMB can leverage institutional reforms and market openness, it may enhance asset depth and international trust, potentially leading to a more balanced multi-center global currency system [6]. Group 2: Macroeconomy - Since 2022, geopolitical factors, "de-dollarization," and the continuous growth of U.S. debt have driven gold prices higher. The demand for gold is primarily influenced by central bank purchases, which have become a significant source of demand in recent years. However, as gold prices rise, some central banks have begun to reduce their gold holdings temporarily, as the ratio of gold to reserve assets exceeds their targets. Overall, there may still be room for an increase in the global allocation of gold by central banks [10]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a long-term bull market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, which provided substantial expansion opportunities for companies. Stable capital inflows have translated future economic potential into current stock market valuations, resulting in stock market growth rates significantly exceeding economic growth rates [12]. - Japan's economy underwent a structural transformation during the "lost two decades" post-1990, which created investment opportunities despite overall macroeconomic challenges. The structural rise in Japan's stock market reflects this transformation, driven by corporate globalization, high-tech leadership, and improved corporate governance. Excluding the "old economy" sectors heavily exposed to domestic real estate and deflation, the "new economy" sectors have shown strong trends since the 1990s [14].

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining momentum, with its global transaction volume reaching 8.5%, narrowing the gap with the British pound, indicating a new opportunity window for RMB's internationalization [1][3]. Group 1: Overview of the Book "New Currency Landscape" - The book "New Currency Landscape" discusses the new journey and progress of RMB internationalization, highlighting the significant changes in the international monetary field and the acceleration of de-dollarization among countries [3][4]. - It provides a comprehensive study from theoretical to practical perspectives, focusing on the evolution of the international monetary system and the repositioning of RMB [3][4]. Group 2: Internal Trends and Challenges of RMB Internationalization - The long-term vulnerabilities of the dollar system and its weaponization have led emerging market countries to seek diversification of foreign exchange reserves, positioning RMB as a key alternative due to its purchasing power and market stability [5][6]. - China's shift from a passive participant to a partial leader in international trade and investment is driving the promotion of RMB in pricing, settlement, and reserve asset supply [5][6]. - The need for China to strengthen its internal unified market is crucial for enhancing its international competitiveness and supporting RMB internationalization [11][12]. Group 3: Regional Strategies for RMB Internationalization - Different regional strategies are required for RMB internationalization, focusing on developing countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, resource-rich countries, and developed nations like Europe [7][8]. - In Southeast Asia and Africa, RMB loans can be used for infrastructure projects, creating a dual output of products and capital [8][9]. - For oil-exporting countries, promoting currency swaps and bilateral pricing in RMB can enhance trade relations [9][10]. Group 4: Microfoundations and Key Challenges - The fragmentation of the domestic economy and the need for a unified market pose challenges to RMB internationalization, necessitating reforms in local government behavior and economic governance [11][12]. - Improving financial resource allocation efficiency is essential, as the current over-reliance on the banking system hinders the development of capital markets [13][14]. - The transformation of Hong Kong's financial market and its currency peg to the US dollar is a critical issue for RMB internationalization, requiring careful consideration of its future role [15].

Core Insights - A chart showing the changing proportions of gold reserves and U.S. Treasury securities in global international reserves has gained significant attention on social media, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies among countries [1][2] - The proportion of U.S. Treasury securities in global reserves peaked around one-third in 2016 but is projected to decline to below 25% by mid-2025, while gold reserves are expected to rise above 25% [1] - The price of gold has increased significantly from around $1,200-$1,300 per ounce in 2016 to approximately $3,300 per ounce by mid-2025, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen from an average of 1.85% in 2016 to around 4.2%-4.3% [1] Investment Behavior - The decline in U.S. Treasury securities and the rise in gold reserves are influenced by sovereign nations intentionally increasing their gold holdings while reducing U.S. Treasury investments [2] - The period of rising U.S. Treasury securities (1980-2016) coincided with a phase of robust economic globalization, while the decline since 2016 aligns with a backlash against globalization [2][3] - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, but confidence in the current monetary system has been shaken by recent U.S. government actions, including trade wars and asset freezes [3][4] Future Outlook - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings may become a rational choice for emerging markets and some developed countries, despite the dollar's continued importance in the international monetary system [4] - Other currencies such as the euro, yuan, yen, and pound are expected to play increasingly significant roles, with the yuan showing the most potential [4] - The future international monetary system may evolve into a hybrid model combining elements of the "three islands of global financial stability" and the proposed "Bretton Woods 3.0" framework [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing dynamics between gold reserves and U.S. Treasury securities in global international reserves, highlighting a significant shift expected in late 2025 where gold reserves will surpass U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [2][3]. Group 1: Trends in Gold and U.S. Treasury Securities - Gold reserves have seen an increase from approximately 10% in 2008 and 2016 to over 25% in mid-2025, while U.S. Treasury securities have decreased from about one-third in 2016 to below 25% in mid-2025 [2][3]. - The price of gold rose from around $1,200-$1,300 per ounce in 2016 to approximately $3,300 per ounce by mid-2025, contributing to the increase in gold reserves' value [3]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities increased from an average of about 1.85% in 2016 to around 4.2%-4.3% in mid-2025, leading to a decline in the market price of existing U.S. Treasury securities [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The period of rising U.S. Treasury securities from 1980 to 2016 coincided with a phase of strong global economic and financial globalization, while the decline since 2016 aligns with a period of challenges to globalization [4]. - Key events in 2016, such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, marked a significant turning point in global economic dynamics [4]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Policies - The Trump administration's trade policies and reluctance to provide global public goods have undermined confidence in the current international monetary system, affecting the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [5]. - The freezing of Russian foreign assets by the U.S. government during the Ukraine conflict raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. Treasury securities, leading to discussions about potential forced conversions of U.S. debt held by foreign nations [5][6]. Group 4: Future of the International Monetary System - Despite a projected decline in the dollar's international status, it will remain the most important reserve currency, while other currencies like the euro, yuan, yen, and pound will gain significance [7]. - The future international monetary system may evolve into a hybrid model incorporating elements of the "global financial stability trilemma" and the proposed "Bretton Woods 3.0" framework [7].