Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries. It assesses the market trends, price movements, and influencing factors of different commodities, offering corresponding investment strategies and outlooks based on fundamental and technical analyses [12][16][22]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - China imposes special port fees on US ships starting today, and in September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [9]. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th in Beijing. Fed's Paulson supports two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. In September, China's soybean and iron ore imports reached record highs, and coal imports were the second - highest on record. OPEC slightly raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year [10]. Macro Finance - **A - share Strategy**: Consider a buy - on - dips approach and pay attention to index rotation. Although there are uncertainties in the US - China trade conflict, the actual impact may be limited. Be cautious of short - term market fluctuations if the 100% tariff is imposed [12]. - **Treasury Futures**: Adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate, but there is an overall optimistic bias based on odds and future fundamentals [13][14]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: Steel may experience oscillatory adjustments, and iron ore will maintain high - level oscillations. The real demand improvement in the steel downstream is limited, and the market may have an oscillatory or off - peak season performance. The cost of raw materials is expected to remain between valley and peak electricity costs [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand from steel mills is strong, but the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend. Pay attention to the stop - profit points for short positions and the entry points for long positions during sharp drops in the next 1 - 2 weeks [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Hold a bearish view on soda ash and consider taking short - term profits. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for glass. The supply - demand contradiction in soda ash is difficult to resolve, and the inventory of glass is relatively high [19][20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom, and shorting on rallies can be considered [22]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak fundamentals, with increasing inventory and a downward - trending price. The global zinc price may show a resonance decline [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range. For polysilicon, wait and see the progress of the industry conference this week [24]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The international and domestic cotton markets are affected by macro factors and supply - demand changes [26]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a short - selling strategy. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 740 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure [27][28]. - **Eggs**: Gradually stop - profit and reduce short positions, and wait and see. The supply - demand of eggs is loose, but the downside space of the spot is limited [28][29]. - **Apples**: Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy. The new - season apples have a strong expectation of a high opening price, but the price may decline as the listing volume increases [30]. - **Corn**: Consider a long - on - dips strategy for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state purchases [30]. - **Red Dates**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening price has a high expectation [31]. - **Pigs**: Hold short positions for near - month contracts. The post - holiday supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price is likely to continue to be weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is that supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. There may be a short - term price repair [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak [34]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [35]. - **Methanol**: Adopt a bullish - oscillatory view. The port inventory pressure is large, but the arrival of Iranian goods may be affected, which may lead to a short - term rebound [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate. The inventory of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises is slowly declining, and the spot price is slightly stronger [38]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt's own fundamentals are stable, and the demand in the north is entering a critical period [39]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to continue to be weak. Be cautious when short - selling during sharp drops. Pay attention to macro policies, device changes, and downstream procurement sentiment [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Adopt a long - term bearish view. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [42]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillatory approach. Pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures [46]. - **Paper - related Products**: - **Printing Paper**: It is expected to oscillate. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy or sell put options [40]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the port de - stocking and spot trading. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips if the spot is stable [44]. - **Log**: Pay attention to the implementation of spot price support and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy if conditions are met [45]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the cost support is weak [41].