Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with interest rates retreating from their peak levels. The 10-year government bond yield closed at 1.7059%, down 2.7 basis points from the previous week, reflecting a recovery to levels seen on July 22 [3][7][8] - The report identifies three main pricing clues affecting interest rate adjustments: the increase in external risk premiums, the adjustment of "anti-involution" and "re-inflation" expectations, and the potential for adjustments in data trading [15][20][26] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The report confirms that the previous interest rate bottom has been established, and it is unlikely that rates will fall below previous lows. The rapid decline in interest rates this week indicates a shift in market focus from the "interest rate peak" to the potential for downward movement [4][28] - The 10-year interest rate has been validated at the critical psychological level of 1.75%, suggesting that rates above this level are likely to attract configuration forces [12][28] Group 2: External Environment and Economic Indicators - The uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff prospects has increased, with the likelihood of significant tariff hikes being low. Recent developments indicate that punitive tariffs of 40% on ASEAN countries are unlikely to lead to substantial increases in tariffs [2][28] - The report notes that despite adjustments in "re-inflation" expectations, risk appetite remains strong, with commodity prices still significantly higher than in June. The South China Industrial Products Index was reported at 3680.1, reflecting an 8.7% increase from the June low [22][29] Group 3: Data Trading Adjustments - The report highlights that the basic pressure on the bond market may weaken, but the possibility of a significant economic downturn is low. Recent PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing, construction, and service sectors, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic momentum [26][27] - The report emphasizes that the adjustments in the three pricing clues have led to a rapid decline in interest rates, but after the initial emotional response, the likelihood of returning to previous lows is minimal [28]