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宏观周报(7月14日-20 日):反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过-20250720
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-20 06:49
Domestic Macro - Demand Side - The travel market is heating up during the summer, with domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500 per day, a 13.08% increase month-on-month and a 2.28% increase year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units in the first two weeks of July, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35% as of July 20, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.94 percentage points to 72.93%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%, indicating significant growth in real estate infrastructure[2] Price Performance - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables fell by 0.09%[2] - The PPI showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.44% and 1.05%, respectively[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week saw the issuance of special government bonds increase significantly, with 123 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1,315 billion yuan in new special bonds (excluding debt relief) issued, marking a notable acceleration in issuance[3] - The cement shipment rate has rebounded, indicating an increase in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy and public facilities projects[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. inflation rate for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, indicating manageable inflation levels despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" and other cryptocurrency-related bills have passed the House, supporting the development of private sector digital currencies and reinforcing the dollar's position[3]