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天风证券:如果美联储独立性削弱 有何潜在影响?附三位主要候选人近期观点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 01:42
| 候选人 | 当地时间 | | 观点言论 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沃勒 | 7/18 | | 美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作,而非总统的言论。 | | | 7/30 | . | 7 月降息 25个基点合理,劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现,不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。 | | (美联储现任理 | 8/1 | . | 我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎,在我看来,没有正确平衡经济前景的风险,可能导致政策落后 | | 章) | | | 于形势变化。 | | | 8/1 | . | 美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。 | | 哈塞特 | 7/14 | | 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 | | (白宫国家经济 | 7/16 | ● | 美联储需要重新调整利率的路径,明确利率应当达到的水平。 | | 委员会主任 ) | 8/6 | . | 特朗普的首要任务是维护美联储的独立性。 | | | | . | (被问及美联储职位相关问题时)乐于探讨这一挑战。 | | | 7/17 | . | 如果由一个人领导美联储和财政部,协议会更容易达成。 | | 沃什 (美联储前理事) ...
天风证券:如果美联储独立性削弱 有何潜在影响?
智通财经网· 2025-08-23 23:24
Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].
宏观周报(7月14日-20 日):反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过-20250720
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-20 06:49
Domestic Macro - Demand Side - The travel market is heating up during the summer, with domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500 per day, a 13.08% increase month-on-month and a 2.28% increase year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units in the first two weeks of July, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35% as of July 20, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.94 percentage points to 72.93%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%, indicating significant growth in real estate infrastructure[2] Price Performance - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables fell by 0.09%[2] - The PPI showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.44% and 1.05%, respectively[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week saw the issuance of special government bonds increase significantly, with 123 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1,315 billion yuan in new special bonds (excluding debt relief) issued, marking a notable acceleration in issuance[3] - The cement shipment rate has rebounded, indicating an increase in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy and public facilities projects[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. inflation rate for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, indicating manageable inflation levels despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" and other cryptocurrency-related bills have passed the House, supporting the development of private sector digital currencies and reinforcing the dollar's position[3]
瑞银全球央行调查:滞涨压力不容忽视,对美联储独立性感到担忧
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 00:41
Group 1: Economic Outlook - A significant increase in pessimism regarding the global economic outlook has been observed among central banks, with a shift from expectations of a soft landing to a belief that stagflation is the most likely scenario [2][3] - Concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty have intensified, with 74% of respondents indicating that the potential impact of the Trump administration's trade and international alliance policies has overtaken geopolitical issues as the primary risk [2] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Reserve Currency Status - Despite 80% of respondents predicting that the U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, there is a notable trend towards diversification, with the euro and renminbi gaining attention [4] - Approximately 29% of central banks plan to reduce their investments in U.S. assets in the near future, reflecting a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3][4] Group 3: Gold as a Preferred Asset - Gold continues to be a primary target for global central banks, with 52% planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, and 67% believing it will be the best-performing asset class by the end of the decade [5][6] - Since the end of 2022, gold prices have surged over 100%, leading to a significant acceleration in gold purchases by central banks, particularly after the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves [6][7] Group 4: Concerns Over U.S. Political Environment - Two-thirds of central bank reserve managers express concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, fearing that political interference may undermine its ability to set monetary policy effectively [3] - The political environment in the U.S. is seen as a barrier to investment in dollar assets, with 70% of central banks indicating that it has hindered their investment decisions, a figure that has more than doubled from the previous year [7]
央行研究局局长王信:未来美元地位取决于两方面 市场对美元信心已经下降
news flash· 2025-06-18 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The future status of the US dollar depends on both the US economy and policies, as well as the developments of other major currencies and their issuing countries, indicating a potential shift towards a more competitive multi-currency system [1] Group 1 - The confidence in the US dollar has seen a decline in the market [1] - A transition from an over-reliance on the dollar to competition among major currencies could provide better constraints and incentives for the policies of major currency issuers [1]
美元周期与地位
招银证券· 2025-05-23 02:48
Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]
清华大学五道口金融学院特聘教授施康:人民币国际化之路漫长且充满挑战
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-18 11:28
Group 1: Global Currency System and Dollar Status - The recent sell-off of dollar assets is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, and despite a decline in trust, the dollar's dominant position in the global currency system remains difficult to challenge [4] - New currencies like the euro, renminbi, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are unlikely to gain widespread acceptance in the short term, as the formation of reserve currencies requires long-term accumulation of national economic strength [4] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global currency system requires significant changes in the economic field, which is still a distant goal [4] Group 2: Development of Digital Renminbi - Public acceptance of digital renminbi depends on its advantages over existing payment methods; without unique benefits, it may struggle to gain popularity [5] - The success of digital renminbi in international markets faces challenges similar to those in China, where entrenched payment methods like credit cards hinder the adoption of alternatives [5] - Market forces should drive the development of digital renminbi, with widespread adoption occurring only when businesses find it more convenient and cost-effective than traditional banking [5] Group 3: Internationalization of Renminbi - The path to renminbi internationalization is long and challenging, with non-convertibility and strict capital controls being the main obstacles [7] - Despite China's significant role in global trade, the current economic environment is not conducive to opening capital accounts and achieving full convertibility of the renminbi [7] - Long-term, as China's economy continues to develop, issues surrounding renminbi convertibility and capital flow will gradually be resolved, leading to its important position in the global currency system [7]
2025清华五道口全球金融论坛主题讨论一丨面向未来的全球货币体系
清华金融评论· 2025-05-18 10:16
2025年5月17-18日,2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。主题论坛一以"面向未来的全 球货币体系"为主题,围绕在不确定性背景下全球金融合作、重塑全球金融秩序,五位国内外专家学 者各抒己见,为参会者带来一场精彩的思维碰撞。 图为圆桌讨论现场 主题会议以圆桌讨论形式展开,联合国前副秘书长马克·马洛赫-布朗勋爵(Lord Mark Malloch- Brown),亚投行首席经济学家白乐夫(Erik Berglof),香港中文大学经济系教授、清华大学五道口 金融学院特聘教授施康,瑞银资产管理全球战略主管马西米利亚诺·加斯塔利(Massimiliano Castelli) 围绕全球金融合作展开讨论。重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事兼创始人马克·乌赞(Marc Uzan) 主持本场论坛。 马克・马洛赫 - 布朗勋爵 联合国前副秘书长 马克·马洛赫-布朗勋爵从国际秩序的角度出发,探讨了当前全球面临的挑战以及多边主义的重 要性。当前,国际秩序因美国单边主义及关税政策冲击面临危机,特朗普政府回归"强国政 治",导致全球经济低增速和政治不确定性增加。而当下多边世界的定义仍不清晰,美国仍是 国际机构中最大的话语权 ...
欧洲央行管委诺特:美元在很多功能上都无可替代。推翻美元的地位依然遥遥无期。
news flash· 2025-05-13 15:20
欧洲央行管委诺特:美元在很多功能上都无可替代。推翻美元的地位依然遥遥无期。 ...
德银警示:海外投资者持续撤离美国资产 美元地位面临挑战
智通财经网· 2025-04-28 23:34
据悉,一年多来截至今年 2 月,萨拉维洛斯一直看好美元,特别是美元对欧元的表现。然而自那之后,他却成为看空美元的代表人物之一,警告称若美国总 统特朗普的经济政策致使投资者抛售过去十年积累的美国资产,美元恐将失去全球储备货币地位。 智通财经APP获悉,德意志银行指出,尽管过去一周市场有所回暖,但外国投资者对美国资产仍持观望态度。为了近乎实时地把握海外投资者近期动态,德 意志银行外汇策略主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯研究了资金流入各类基金的情况,这些基金从海外吸纳资金后再投入美国股债市场。 据萨拉维洛斯本周一发布的报告,数据显示过去两个月海外买家购买美国资产的步伐 "急踩刹车",即便上周市场阴霾略有散去,也未见好转迹象。报告认 为,从资金流动现状来看,美国资本流入要么迅速放缓,要么美国资产投资大幅缩水,无论哪种情况,都对美元这个双赤字货币的地位构成挑战。 但自 4 月初特朗普宣布计划对贸易伙伴加征关税以来,美元与美国股债市场一同下挫。罕见的同步抛售引发了市场对外国投资者大规模撤离美国市场的担 忧。 为了更及时地掌握相关趋势,萨拉维洛斯研究了约 400 只专注于美国、在海外注册的 ETF 每日资金流入情况,以及更广泛的封闭式 ...