近日，在2025年彭博创新经济论坛期间，彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）远程接受21世纪 经济报道专访时指出，美国关税政策的升级正在深刻改变全球贸易结构与经济增长路径。据其分析，特 朗普政府已将美国平均关税从约2%大幅提高至约15%，这一政策变动导致"美国在全球贸易体系中的角 色正在缩水"。 欧乐鹰表示，根据可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）测算，平均15%的关税水平预计将使未来几年对美出口 规模较无关税情形下降约20%。随着对美国出口壁垒上升，各国正积极寻求替代市场，全球贸易中"绕 过美国"的部分将逐步增长，而与美相关的贸易流则趋于收缩。 自美国总统特朗普今年1月入主白宫以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴频频挥舞关税"大棒"，给全球贸易格局 带来了巨大干扰。世界贸易组织（WTO）警告称，特朗普政府关税正在对国际贸易体系造成80年来"前 所未见"的破坏，预计2026年全球货物贸易增长仅为0.5%。 彭博经济研究预测，2026年全球经济增长率可能进一步放缓至2.9%，低于2025年的3.2%。欧乐鹰指 出，企业为规避关税而进行的超前进口行为已进入库存消化阶段，其滞后影响将持续至2026年。尽管美 国目前未出现滞 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着世界对美元的信任产生动摇，今年美元大跌。 彼得森国际经济研究所（PIIE）高级研究员Jeffrey Schott在2025外滩年会上接受21世纪经济报道记者采 访时表示，美元是国际体系中占主导地位的储备货币，但这并不意味着会一成不变。英镑曾一度占据主 导地位，但英国政府的政策导致英镑在国际金融事务中的影响力下降。美国的政策，尤其是美国国内经 济政策，可能会引发人们对美元长期地位的更多质疑。 Jeffrey Schott自1983年开始就职于彼得森国际经济研究所，目前担任高级研究员，主要致力于国际贸易 政策和经济制裁领域的研究。1974-1982年他任职于美国财政部，专注于国际贸易和能源政策研究。在 东京回合多边贸易谈判中，他作为美国代表团成员参与了《关贸总协定》（GATT）补贴规则的谈判。 他编著有大量关于贸易的书籍，包括《跨太平洋伙伴关系评估》（2016年）、《当地成分要求：全球挑 战》（2013年）、《北美自由贸易协定与气候变化》（2011年）等。此外，他还发表了大量关于美国贸 易政策与经济制裁的文章。 信任缺失 从1947年的《关贸总协定》（GATT）到 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, potentially setting a new historical record for duration [1][5] - The ongoing political conflict between the Republican and Democratic parties continues to escalate, with accusations exchanged regarding the cause of the shutdown [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to the freezing or cancellation of funding for over 200 projects across the U.S., totaling nearly $28 billion, primarily affecting Democratic-led states and cities [9] - The U.S. Labor Department has postponed the release of key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics, which could hinder decision-making by the Federal Reserve [11][13] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that the ongoing shutdown is costing the economy approximately $15 billion per day [13] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Democratic Senate leader has criticized Republicans for refusing to negotiate, attributing the shutdown to their actions [1] - The Republican Senate leader has called for Democrats to stop their "tantrums" and vote to reopen the government [3] - The Department of Homeland Security has attempted to shift blame for the shutdown onto Democrats, although several airports have refused to broadcast this message due to political content regulations [7] Group 3: Global Implications - The shutdown and the resulting lack of reliable economic data are raising concerns among international officials about the ability to formulate effective policies, potentially leading to increased risks of policy errors [17] - The ongoing situation may weaken the U.S. dollar's position in the global market, as other countries rely on U.S. data to assess their own economic conditions [19]

Core Insights - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, with a rapid increase in recent months, raising concerns about sustainability [1][4][6] - The Federal Reserve is the largest holder of U.S. debt, and there are underlying tensions between different financial interests in the U.S. [3][7] - The dollar's status as the world's primary currency allows the U.S. to continue borrowing, but this may not be sustainable in the long term [4][7] Debt Dynamics - The U.S. government employs a "borrow new to pay old" strategy, issuing new debt to cover maturing obligations and additional deficits [5][6] - Interest payments on the debt have surged to $1.4 trillion, consuming a significant portion of government revenue [6][7] - The rate of debt accumulation is accelerating, with an increase of $1 trillion every five months, which is double the average rate of the past 25 years [6][7] Global Context - Major foreign holders of U.S. debt include Japan and China, with Japan increasing its holdings significantly in early 2025 [6] - There is a growing trend of de-dollarization, with countries increasingly opting to settle trade in their own currencies, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves [6][7] - Large investment funds are diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. assets, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a suspension of official economic data releases, impacting not only the U.S. but also other countries that rely on this data for economic assessments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Global Economies - Countries like Japan are facing challenges in making policy decisions due to the lack of U.S. economic data, complicating their monetary policy strategies [3][5]. - The shutdown has created a "data blind spot," increasing the risk of policy missteps as countries navigate economic uncertainties [1][3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that ongoing political pressure on data collection agencies could erode public trust in official statistics, complicating policy formulation for central banks and governments [5][6]. Group 2: Concerns Over U.S. Governance and Data Reliability - The shutdown, along with other recent events such as pressure on the Federal Reserve and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau chief, highlights deeper issues regarding U.S. governance and data reliability [4][5]. - There is growing skepticism about the U.S. governance capabilities and the reliability of its data, which could affect global reserve management and monetary decisions [5][7]. - The absence of reliable official statistics makes it difficult for countries to compare economic data over time, increasing uncertainty in economic assessments [7]. Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - Despite the shutdown, the Federal Reserve continues to collect economic data independently, and private data service providers are offering alternative solutions [5][6]. - Central banks are adapting by piecing together non-official data to make short-term assessments, although this approach lacks the comparability of official statistics [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of Australia's trade relationships, particularly with China, and the implications for its key exports like iron ore and gold, amidst geopolitical tensions and shifts in global currency usage [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Exports - Since Albanese took office, Australia has restored normal trade relations with China, which is crucial for its economy that heavily relies on exports like iron ore and wine [1]. - Iron ore remains Australia's most significant export, but recent developments have raised concerns about its future, especially with the rise of Russia as a key supplier to China [10][15]. - By June 2026, gold is expected to become Australia's second-largest export, benefiting from increased production and rising prices, while liquefied natural gas will lose its position as the second-largest export [8]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Implications - The U.S. is particularly concerned about the potential decline of the dollar's global status due to Australia's iron ore exports and China's increasing use of the yuan in international trade [3][5]. - Australia's media warns that refusing to accept yuan for iron ore transactions could lead to significant economic losses, while accepting it may strain relations with the U.S. [13][17]. - By the 2025-2026 fiscal year, iron ore revenue is projected to decrease to 113 billion AUD, a drop of 3.9 billion AUD from previous estimates, indicating a challenging outlook for this key export [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1, 2025, resulting in hundreds of thousands of federal employees being furloughed without pay and a complete halt to public services [1] - The shutdown was triggered by the failure to extend a temporary spending bill that expired on September 30, with a political deadlock between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-led Senate over healthcare benefits [2] - The shutdown has led to significant consequences, including the closure of national parks losing over 420,000 visitors daily and federal courts only handling emergency cases [4] Group 2 - China has been continuously reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $309.6 billion, marking the lowest level since 2009 [1][6] - Over the past 30 months, China has decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by more than $300 billion, with a notable acceleration in the past two months, reducing nearly $30 billion [6] - This trend is part of a broader global shift, with central banks worldwide adjusting their foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on U.S. debt, as the dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 58%, the lowest in 25 years [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent comments indicate a softening stance amid increasing economic pressures, particularly concerning the production of F-35 fighter jets and the challenges faced by American farmers [9] - Despite the U.S. government's changing attitude, China maintains a calm approach, emphasizing that any cooperation must be based on mutual respect and benefit [11] - The current situation is reminiscent of the 2018 government shutdown, but the complexities are greater now, with inflation remaining high at 3.7%, potentially leading to further price increases if the shutdown continues [13] Group 4 - The government shutdown poses serious challenges for the U.S. government, with unions planning lawsuits for unpaid wages during the shutdown, and local businesses near national parks suffering losses [15] - As of now, China remains the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, but if the current pace of reduction continues, it may be surpassed by Japan by 2026 [17] - The budget impasse and subsequent shutdown are raising profound questions about the dollar's status and U.S. global leadership, prompting China to adopt strategies to navigate this evolving landscape [17]

Core Insights - The U.S. debt crisis is intensifying, with the national debt exceeding $37.4 trillion and interest payments projected to reach $900 billion in 2025, surpassing military spending [3][15][23] - Trump's recent tax policies, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, are seen as ineffective and potentially harmful, exacerbating the existing economic challenges [3][5][23] - The agricultural sector is facing significant challenges, with a reported 20% decline in exports and rising costs due to tariffs, leading to widespread discontent among farmers [8][9][15] Economic Indicators - The debt-to-GDP ratio has reached a historical high of 117%, indicating severe fiscal pressure [5] - Inflation is evident, with consumer prices rising, such as a nearly $1 increase in the price of milk [6][15] - The U.S. is experiencing a trade deficit that is worsening, contrary to expectations of improvement [15][23] Market Reactions - The stock market has reacted negatively to the economic situation, with significant drops in indices like the Dow Jones, which lost 1,000 points in a single day [11] - International capital is beginning to flow out of the U.S. market, raising concerns about the dollar's stability and its status as the world's primary reserve currency [11][17] Global Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the EU and ASEAN have increased by 8% and 10% respectively, indicating a shift in trade patterns and supply chain resilience [6][13] - The Chinese government is diversifying its foreign reserves, reducing its holdings of U.S. debt to $775 billion by 2025, while increasing gold reserves [13][19] Political and Economic Strategy - The U.S. government's approach to managing the debt crisis involves a mix of tax increases and tariffs, but these measures are criticized as short-term fixes that do not address underlying issues [15][23] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are characterized by retaliatory tariffs, particularly affecting U.S. agricultural products, which are facing an 84% tariff from China [9][19] Future Outlook - The situation is described as a "live broadcast" of a debt crisis with no clear resolution in sight, as both the U.S. and China navigate their respective economic challenges [21][25] - The potential for a shift in global economic leadership is being discussed, with China's stable approach contrasting with the U.S.'s more aggressive tactics [25]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining low borrowing costs and stability in the global financial system, and any attempts to undermine this independence could lead to higher long-term interest rates and increased inflation risks [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - ECB Executive Schnabel warns that weakening the Fed's independence could backfire, raising borrowing costs instead of lowering them [1] - Historical evidence shows that central bank independence reduces risk premiums and eases financing conditions for households, businesses, and governments [1] - Political pressure for rate cuts could erode investor confidence in the Fed's policy certainty, potentially leading to higher long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - Schnabel indicates that the U.S. could export higher inflation, as countries struggle to combat global inflation [2] - The loss of trust in U.S. policies could threaten the dollar's supremacy in the global financial system, although no viable alternative to the dollar currently exists [2] - ECB President Lagarde emphasizes that Trump's interference with the Fed could pose serious risks to both the U.S. and global economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with possible implications for inflation, fiscal stability, the dollar's status, and market performance [1] Group 1: Potential Impacts of a New Fed Chair - Increased risk of stagflation due to potential policy shifts [1] - Heightened fiscal concerns as a result of a politically influenced Fed [1] - Weakened dollar and capital flight if the Fed's independence is compromised [1] - Possible market turmoil leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] Group 2: Candidates for Fed Chair - Main candidates include Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, with Milan emerging as a potential dark horse due to his dovish stance and advocacy for reduced Fed independence [1] - Other candidates consist of current Fed officials like Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, as well as financial institution representatives and former government economists [1] Group 3: Candidate Statements - Waller emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on its work rather than presidential comments, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut in July is reasonable [2] - Hassett acknowledges the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence while also advocating for a reassessment of interest rate paths [2] - Walsh supports the idea of a rate cut and expresses willingness to lead the Fed if called upon by the President [2]