Core Viewpoint - China needs to be vigilant about the weakening momentum of global economic growth and the recurring external trade conflicts that may disrupt external demand in the coming year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese exports, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - Despite the intensified trade conflict, China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to about 10% [3][4] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.3% and 26.1% respectively, contributing positively to overall export growth [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - The structure of China's export products has improved, with the share of high-tech industrial products rising to 53.3% in September 2023, marking a historical high [5][7] - The growth in high-tech industrial exports has been driven by machinery and audio-visual equipment, which saw their export shares increase to 42.6% and 8.5% respectively [5][7] - The RCA index for various industrial products indicates that while labor and resource-intensive products have seen a decline in comparative advantage, other categories have shown significant improvement [9][12] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, with 51.1% of total exports being intermediate products, indicating a reliance on further processing in other countries like Vietnam [13][15] - The IMF report highlights that while China's intermediate goods trade has increased, the export of final goods remains primarily directed towards Europe and North America, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trade structure [15] - The continuous decline in export prices since 2023 has led to a trend of "trading price for volume," which may provoke increased trade protectionism against China [15][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that despite increased external uncertainties, domestic economic resilience is supported by policy measures [1] - In April, while external demand faced short-term declines due to tariff changes, domestic demand remained resilient under policy support [1] - Production and consumption growth rates showed a slight decline compared to the previous month but still maintained high growth levels, particularly in emerging industries and policy-favored consumption [1] Group 2 - Investment growth rates across various sectors have also declined, yet infrastructure and manufacturing investments continue to show robust growth [1] - The article anticipates a potential easing of external demand disturbances and expects domestic demand to benefit from continued policy efforts [1] - Following the easing of tariff tensions in May, a short-term rebound in external demand is expected, which will positively impact domestic production and investment [1]