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国泰海通|宏观:外部扰动,仍有韧性
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-20 14:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that despite increased external uncertainties, domestic economic resilience is supported by policy measures [1] - In April, while external demand faced short-term declines due to tariff changes, domestic demand remained resilient under policy support [1] - Production and consumption growth rates showed a slight decline compared to the previous month but still maintained high growth levels, particularly in emerging industries and policy-favored consumption [1] Group 2 - Investment growth rates across various sectors have also declined, yet infrastructure and manufacturing investments continue to show robust growth [1] - The article anticipates a potential easing of external demand disturbances and expects domestic demand to benefit from continued policy efforts [1] - Following the easing of tariff tensions in May, a short-term rebound in external demand is expected, which will positively impact domestic production and investment [1]