Core Viewpoint - China needs to be vigilant about the weakening momentum of global economic growth and the recurring external trade conflicts that may disrupt external demand in the coming year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese exports, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - Despite the intensified trade conflict, China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to about 10% [3][4] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.3% and 26.1% respectively, contributing positively to overall export growth [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - The structure of China's export products has improved, with the share of high-tech industrial products rising to 53.3% in September 2023, marking a historical high [5][7] - The growth in high-tech industrial exports has been driven by machinery and audio-visual equipment, which saw their export shares increase to 42.6% and 8.5% respectively [5][7] - The RCA index for various industrial products indicates that while labor and resource-intensive products have seen a decline in comparative advantage, other categories have shown significant improvement [9][12] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, with 51.1% of total exports being intermediate products, indicating a reliance on further processing in other countries like Vietnam [13][15] - The IMF report highlights that while China's intermediate goods trade has increased, the export of final goods remains primarily directed towards Europe and North America, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trade structure [15] - The continuous decline in export prices since 2023 has led to a trend of "trading price for volume," which may provoke increased trade protectionism against China [15][17]

Group 1: Export Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total export value reached $2.8 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, the highest level in three years[18] - Despite a 16.9% decline in exports to the US, overall export growth was supported by significant increases in non-US markets, contributing approximately 6.3 percentage points to total export growth[3][22] - Exports to emerging markets such as Africa and ASEAN grew by 28.3% and 14.7%, respectively, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the US[3][4] Group 2: Export Structure and Dynamics - Intermediate goods and capital goods have become the main drivers of overall export growth, with intermediate goods exports increasing by 10.2% and contributing 4.7 percentage points to total exports[5][37] - The share of intermediate goods in total exports rose from 41.7% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, while the share of consumer goods fell from 37.2% to 32.5%[36][37] - Consumer goods exports faced pressure, growing only by 0.2%, primarily due to competition from low-cost economies and ongoing trade frictions[5][40] Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - China's export relationship with developed economies like the US and EU is shifting from complementarity to a mix of competition and cooperation, with the share of exports to these regions declining from 35.4% in 2017 to 29.1% in 2024[42][46] - The export growth to ASEAN and other developing economies is expected to continue, driven by local manufacturing capabilities and increasing demand for intermediate and capital goods[47][49] - Future export growth is projected to stabilize at around 4% to 5%, supported by a complete industrial system and significant upgrading potential[56]