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中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略
中金点睛· 2025-11-29 01:07
Group 1: Strategy - The international monetary system exhibits a stable "center-periphery" structure, where dominant currencies have changed over time, but the underlying order remains consistent. This order is rooted in trust and the "high-order belief" in sovereign currencies, which are supported by national credit and legal tender, creating liquidity premiums and network effects, thus exhibiting natural monopoly characteristics [6]. - The formation of central currencies relies on economic, financial, and institutional advantages, maintained through positive feedback loops. However, when debt expansion exceeds fiscal and institutional constraints, emerging countries may seize the opportunity to rise as old centers decline. Currently, the foundation of the dollar system is weakening, and global economic diversification is accelerating. If the RMB can leverage institutional reforms and market openness, it may enhance asset depth and international trust, potentially leading to a more balanced multi-center global currency system [6]. Group 2: Macroeconomy - Since 2022, geopolitical factors, "de-dollarization," and the continuous growth of U.S. debt have driven gold prices higher. The demand for gold is primarily influenced by central bank purchases, which have become a significant source of demand in recent years. However, as gold prices rise, some central banks have begun to reduce their gold holdings temporarily, as the ratio of gold to reserve assets exceeds their targets. Overall, there may still be room for an increase in the global allocation of gold by central banks [10]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a long-term bull market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, which provided substantial expansion opportunities for companies. Stable capital inflows have translated future economic potential into current stock market valuations, resulting in stock market growth rates significantly exceeding economic growth rates [12]. - Japan's economy underwent a structural transformation during the "lost two decades" post-1990, which created investment opportunities despite overall macroeconomic challenges. The structural rise in Japan's stock market reflects this transformation, driven by corporate globalization, high-tech leadership, and improved corporate governance. Excluding the "old economy" sectors heavily exposed to domestic real estate and deflation, the "new economy" sectors have shown strong trends since the 1990s [14].