马勇教授在会上发布了中国金融形势指数（CAFI）。该指数由财金学院庄毓敏院长领衔主持、由马勇 教授带领的团队研发，历经六年持续追踪与验证，通过货币、信贷、股票、债券、外汇和房地产六大子 市场指数，系统衡量中国金融整体形势。 CAFI指数能准确反映金融周期运行状况，并对GDP、CPI等关键宏观经济指标具有显著领先性。当前监 测表明，中国金融形势已逐步摆脱偏冷区间，呈现初步回暖态势，其中外汇市场和债券市场仍是主要制 约因素。 基于指数分析，报告预测货币政策保持宽松，建议金融市场有序引导增量资金入市，并抓住美联储降息 周期带来的机遇，扩大金融高质量开放，吸引国际耐心资本回流，为中国经济复苏提供新的动力。 全文如下： 中国金融形势分析报告（2025） 中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇 大湾区经济网讯，在2025年11月20日举行的中国金融形势指数专题发布会上，中国人民大学中国财政金 融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇发布并解读了中国金融形势指数（2025）最新分析报 告。该指数是在中国人民大学财政金融学院院长庄毓敏教授的亲自带领下，研究团队经过一年左右的系 统研发、一年左右 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference highlighted the gradual recovery of China's financial situation, as indicated by the China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) [1][2] - The CAFI, developed over six years, effectively reflects financial cycles and has predictive capabilities for key macroeconomic indicators like GDP and CPI [1][3][6] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: monetary, credit, stock, bond, exchange rate, and real estate [3][4] - The index uses a standardized scoring system ranging from -100 to +100, with specific ranges indicating varying states of financial health [4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the overall financial situation in China is showing signs of initial recovery, with the CAFI index at 3.88 (equal weight) and 3.34 (volatility inverse weight), both indicating a "mildly positive" state [10] - The monetary market index and credit situation index are both in a "mildly positive" state, while the bond market index is showing signs of being "slightly cold" [7][10] - The exchange rate pressure index is the lowest among the sub-indices, reflecting ongoing pressures from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, although recent rate cuts may alleviate some of this pressure [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The financial situation is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a likely sustained accommodative monetary policy to combat deflationary pressures [10][11] - Policies will focus on guiding incremental capital into financial markets, breaking the current standoff between stock and bond markets, and enhancing investor protection [11] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts present an opportunity for China to attract international capital, which could bolster the financial situation and support economic recovery [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the dollar channel as a significant mechanism for the cross-border transmission of monetary policy, highlighting its role in influencing global financial stability and the challenges it poses for central banks [1][6]. Group 1: Limitations of Traditional Monetary Policy Transmission - Traditional theories of monetary policy spillover effects focus on interest rate differentials and trade competitiveness, but these channels are increasingly inadequate in explaining real-world capital flows [2][3]. - The interest rate differential can indicate the direction of capital flows but fails to capture their scale and volatility, as investor behavior is also influenced by risk preferences and market sentiment [2]. - The trade competitiveness channel is limited in a dollar-dominated global trade system, where exchange rate fluctuations do not effectively translate into trade price adjustments [3]. Group 2: Impact of Dollar Appreciation on Financing Costs - Dollar appreciation leads to increased financing costs for U.S. companies, particularly in the leveraged loan market, which is sensitive to changes in risk appetite [4][5]. - A 1% appreciation of the dollar results in an increase of 6-7 basis points in leveraged loan spreads, which can rise to approximately 13.8 basis points when controlling for the Eurozone yield curve [4]. - Higher-risk loans exhibit greater sensitivity to dollar fluctuations, with spreads increasing significantly more than lower-risk loans during dollar appreciation [5]. Group 3: Dollar Channel's Role in Global Monetary Policy and Risk Cycles - The dollar channel serves as both a conduit for policy transmission and an amplifier of risk cycles, potentially limiting the independence of U.S. monetary policy [6]. - Dollar fluctuations create a self-reinforcing cycle between risk sentiment and financing conditions, exacerbating the pro-cyclical nature of the financial system [6]. - The dynamics of a strong or weak dollar complicate policy decisions for central banks, necessitating a careful balance between domestic monetary policy effects and external spillover impacts [7].

Core Viewpoint - Financial cycle adjustments lead to significant changes in asset allocation, with a systematic increase in the proportion of safe assets and a decrease in real estate allocation, while stock assets may see a systematic increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Cycle Adjustments - Financial cycle adjustments indicate a shift in economic growth models, emphasizing efficiency improvements from technological innovation and population quality [3][4]. - The analysis shows that after a peak in real estate prices, the proportion of safe assets increases by over 5 percentage points in the fifth year, while real estate allocation decreases by about 8 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 3 percentage points [2][3]. - In the sixth to tenth years post-peak, safe asset allocation rises by around 5 percentage points, real estate allocation declines by about 10 percentage points, and stock allocation increases by approximately 5 percentage points [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Changes - The adjustment in the financial cycle leads to a significant change in investor risk preferences, with a tendency for safe assets to increase in allocation [5][6]. - International experiences show that after a financial cycle peak, the proportion of real estate in household asset allocation decreases systematically, while stock-related assets increase [7][10]. - For example, in the U.S., even after real estate prices recovered to previous highs, the allocation to real estate decreased from 45.0% to 36.0%, while stock-related assets increased from 36.9% to 44.4% [8][10]. Group 3: Impact on Chinese Market - In China, the proportion of safe assets in urban households is estimated to rise from about 16% in 2021 to approximately 27% by Q3 2025, while real estate allocation is expected to decrease from 74% to 58%, and stock-related assets to increase from 9% to 15% [16][17]. - The shift in monetary policy, particularly the increase in fiscal contributions to money supply, is expected to support the rise of stock allocations while reducing the appeal of real estate investments [17][20]. - The analysis indicates that the stock market's elasticity to monetary supply has increased, while the elasticity of the real estate market has decreased, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards equities [22][24]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Valuation - The differentiation in return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) between traditional and new economy sectors has become more pronounced, with new economy sectors showing improvement while traditional sectors lag [51][52]. - The valuation of new economy sectors has increased significantly, while traditional sectors have seen little change, indicating a potential need for traditional sectors to improve their valuations to sustain market growth [56][57]. - The analysis of A-share market performance shows that the new economy sectors have outperformed traditional sectors, aligning with the broader trend of efficiency-driven growth [59].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the real estate industry, specifically analyzing global housing price cycles and their implications for the Chinese market [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Asset Price Perspective**: The analysis of housing prices should prioritize asset price perspectives over supply-demand dynamics, especially in large economies like China where financial cycles significantly impact housing prices [1][2]. - **Historical Data Importance**: The study emphasizes the importance of data from after 1970, as the modern monetary system has introduced new patterns in real estate cycles [5][6]. - **Classification of Housing Cycles**: The report categorizes global real estate cycles into three types: - Conventional cycles (decline < 20%) - Small bubbles (decline 20%-35%) - Large bubbles (decline > 35%) [10]. - **Independence of Price Movements**: Historical data indicates that the processes of price increases and decreases are largely independent, with no strong correlation between them [11]. - **Duration of Price Cycles**: - Conventional cycles rebound in about 2 years - Small bubbles take approximately 4.5 years - Large bubbles may take around 6 years [12]. - **Current Trends in China**: Since Q2 2021, Chinese housing prices have been declining. If this is a large bubble, prices could drop by about 40% by Q3 2027. If it is a small bubble, the decline may last until the end of 2025 [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Financial Policies**: The relationship between real estate cycles and financial systems is crucial, with significant differences observed before and after 1970 due to changes in monetary policy [5][7]. - **Limitations of Historical Cases**: The cases of Japan in 1990 and the U.S. in 2008 are deemed less relevant for current analyses due to their unique historical contexts and extreme conditions [6][7]. - **Use of Real vs. Nominal Prices**: The report advocates for the use of real housing price data, which excludes CPI growth, to better reflect asset value changes during economic crises [8]. - **Factors Influencing Recovery**: The recovery of housing prices in different economies is influenced by various factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, which can significantly alter the trajectory of real estate markets [16][20]. - **Indicators for Market Assessment**: The report suggests that nominal prices may indicate a stop in price decline earlier than real prices, but emphasizes the need for direct observation of actual price movements for accurate predictions [17][18]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the real estate market, highlighting the importance of understanding housing price cycles through an asset price lens, the implications of financial policies, and the need for careful consideration of historical data in predicting future trends.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The high demand for the US dollar as a global reserve currency leads to its overvaluation, which suppresses the competitiveness of the US manufacturing sector and results in long-term trade deficits [1][2] - The Chinese stock market performs well despite slowing economic growth and low inflation, attributed to phase-specific monetary policy easing, optimistic policy expectations, and liquidity in the market [1][4] - A comprehensive macroeconomic analysis should integrate both financial and real perspectives, focusing on monetary supply, interest rates, capital market dynamics, production capacity, employment, and consumer demand [1][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Currency and Economic Policy - The preference for a strong or weak dollar in the US depends on economic policy goals, such as promoting exports or attracting capital [2] - The relationship between financial cycles and real economic cycles is crucial for macroeconomic regulation, with financial cycles often requiring looser fiscal policies in their later stages [3][23] Section 2: Chinese Stock Market Dynamics - The positive performance of the Chinese stock market can be understood through various lenses, including liquidity, investor confidence, and policy expectations, despite a weak fundamental backdrop [4][30] Section 3: Financial and Real Economic Perspectives - A dual perspective on macroeconomics, considering both financial and real aspects, is essential for accurate predictions and targeted policy recommendations [5][12] - The interaction between financial markets and the real economy is significant, as evidenced by the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the risks of neglecting this relationship [7][8][15] Section 4: Unique Aspects of Chinese Fiscal Policy - China's fiscal policy is characterized by its complexity, involving multiple budgets and a variety of quasi-fiscal tools that allow for flexible macroeconomic adjustments [18][19] Section 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The US government debt is projected to reach 140% of GDP in ten years, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in the context of persistent inflation [26]

Strategy - The recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to liquidity issues (rising Hibor), downward revisions in earnings, and low AH premium. The market has not formed an effective breakthrough despite previous upward movements, with a baseline target of 24,000 and an optimistic target of 25,000-26,000 remaining unchanged due to insufficient support from overall and structural analysis [5][7]. Macroeconomy - The stock market is showing improvement despite ongoing economic downward pressure. The report suggests that understanding the financial cycle can provide better insights into the stock market's positive performance amid economic challenges. Key differences between stock market rebounds following financial versus economic cycle adjustments are highlighted, including the need for fiscal stimulus to enhance ROE during financial cycle adjustments [9][11]. Macroeconomy - Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is interpreted as a "dovish" signal, but it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability or extent of interest rate cuts. The speech emphasizes the Fed's response function, indicating that if employment risks outweigh inflation, rate cuts may occur. However, if inflation risks surpass employment concerns, the Fed may halt rate cuts, suggesting challenges for monetary policy amid conflicting employment and inflation targets [9][11]. Macroeconomy - The A-share market has shown a significant turnaround since 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high. However, the underlying economic fundamentals have not improved significantly, leading to a divergence between economic stability and market enthusiasm. The report analyzes the root causes of the current bull market, emphasizing that capital inflows are not the sole driver of market performance [11][13]. Strategy - The recent increase in market activity and inflow of new capital is partly due to the initial signs of residents moving their deposits, driven by the attractiveness of A-shares amid an "asset shortage" environment. This trend is expected to continue, with the potential for increased trading volume and short-term volatility, but it is not anticipated to affect the medium-term market trajectory [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent improvement in the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding the financial cycle perspective to explain the market's positive performance despite ongoing economic downward pressure [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Cycle vs Economic Cycle - The financial cycle adjustment leads to a significant deterioration in balance sheets, while the economic cycle adjustment has a relatively smaller impact on balance sheets [6][9]. - In the financial cycle adjustment phase, the stock market may experience a "reallocation" effect driven by balance sheet changes, whereas in the economic cycle adjustment, the stock market's recovery is more synchronized with economic improvements [12][11]. - The ideal policy mix differs between the two cycles; the financial cycle requires more fiscal stimulus, while the economic cycle relies more on monetary policy [7][30]. Group 2: Three-Step Process of Stock Market Recovery - The recovery of the stock market post-financial cycle adjustment can be divided into three steps: 1. Housing market adjustment and deterioration of private balance sheets, leading to an increase in the proportion of safe assets [3][12]. 2. Policy intervention to stabilize growth and improve private balance sheets, increasing the attractiveness of risk assets relative to safe assets, resulting in a rise in the stock market [3][12]. 3. Economic recovery, transitioning the stock market from being driven by reallocation effects to being driven by earnings [3][12]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Stock Market Rebound - Several factors support the current rebound in the Chinese stock market, including accelerated technological advancements and a correction of overly cautious market expectations regarding the medium to long-term economic outlook [3][47]. - The government's increased focus on the economy, housing market, and stock market has led to a perception that downside risks are limited [3][47]. - The decline in the cost-effectiveness of safe asset allocations has motivated investors to increase their allocation to risk assets, further supporting the stock market [3][47]. Group 4: Comparison with International Experiences - The article draws comparisons with the U.S. financial cycle, noting that the U.S. stock market recovery post-financial cycle adjustment occurred earlier than the recovery of nominal GDP and the housing market [17][15]. - The U.S. experience shows that stock prices may recover before economic indicators due to improvements in corporate balance sheets, even when the economy has not yet shown signs of recovery [11][21]. - Japan's experience illustrates that addressing debt issues is crucial for stock market recovery, as the Japanese market did not stabilize until after significant debt problems were resolved [41][43]. Group 5: Implications for China - The financial cycle adjustment in China is expected to have a lesser impact on various sectors' balance sheets compared to the U.S. and Japan during their respective financial crises [51][56]. - The heavy debt burden on local governments in China poses challenges, but improving balance sheets could support corporate development and enhance stock market potential [56][53]. - The article suggests that the ongoing structural improvements in the Chinese economy, particularly in innovation, may lead to a more resilient market compared to past financial cycle adjustments in other countries [56][58].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights several new phenomena in credit and financial data for July, indicating a trend of private deleveraging and government leveraging in the second half of the financial cycle, influenced by seasonal factors [2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Financial Data Trends - Social financing (社融) continued to accelerate while credit remained weak, with new social financing reaching 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and a slight rise in growth rate from 8.9% in June to 9.0% in July [4]. - New credit in July was -50 billion yuan, showing a significant change compared to June, reflecting seasonal loan issuance patterns and local debt replacement impacts [4][5]. - Despite weak credit data, loan interest rates remained stable, indicating a shift in financial institutions' operational philosophy towards prioritizing asset quality over merely increasing loan volume [5]. Group 2: Financial Investment and Deposits - The active financial investment environment contributed to a significant increase in non-bank deposits, which reached 2.14 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan [6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is consistent with previous months, suggesting heightened financial investment activity in the private sector amid declining deposit rates [6]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and M1/M2 Trends - M2 growth rate reached 8.8% year-on-year in July, supported by accelerated fiscal spending, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate of 12.8% [6]. - M1 growth rate increased to 5.6% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate exceeding 6%, influenced by active financial investment and low base effects from previous months [7]. - The article anticipates that the year-on-year growth rate of monetary supply will likely continue to improve in the third quarter, with M2 potentially exceeding 9% and M1 around 6% [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic context indicates a divergence between the stock market's implied PMI and PPI growth levels, which are higher than market expectations, suggesting a need to understand the current stock market rebound from a financial cycle perspective [1][2][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **US Financial Recovery Post-2009**: The US effectively improved private sector balance sheets through government leverage, fiscal expansion, interest rate reductions, and real estate bailouts, leading to increased stock market allocations [1][3]. - **Japan's Slow Recovery**: In contrast, Japan's government did not leverage sufficiently after the 1990 real estate bubble burst, resulting in a prolonged weak private sector balance sheet and sluggish stock market recovery [4][5][6]. - **China's Current Economic State**: China's private sector balance sheet is stable, with positive factors such as reduced real estate drag, increased policy focus, and technological advancements supporting stock market growth [1][9]. - **Future Stock Market Performance**: The sustainability of future stock market growth in China hinges on the effective improvement of private sector balance sheets and the growth momentum from technological advancements [2][16]. - **Government Policy Impact**: The timing of policy implementation is crucial for economic impact, with significant measures taken in 2024 to support economic stability [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Household Asset Allocation Trends**: Since 2019, household asset allocation has shifted towards low-risk financial assets, with limited growth in high-risk assets, indicating potential for future increases in high-risk asset investments [12]. - **Challenges for the Private Sector**: The private sector faces high repayment pressures, necessitating a reduction in leverage, with fiscal policy being more effective than monetary policy in addressing these challenges [13][14]. - **Central Bank Tools**: In a context of limited interest rate reduction space, the central bank has room for balance sheet expansion, which is crucial for helping the private sector reduce leverage [15]. - **Market Sentiment**: Short-term market sentiment remains supported, but long-term stock market sustainability depends on the improvement of private sector balance sheets [16].