他强调，仅从供给侧理解规模经济是不充分的。规模优势能否转化为现实增长，关键在于需求端是否能 够形成有效匹配。历史经验表明，通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，并不能从根本上解决问 题，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 在中国经济结构转型与内外部环境变化交织的背景下，如何理解产业优势、需求约束与宏观政策取向， 成为当前宏观讨论的重要议题。在1月10日举办的"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，中金公司首 席经济学家、论坛副理事长彭文生发表主旨演讲时表示，中国制造业尤其是绿色产业和人工智能，具备 典型的规模经济特征。 彭文生表示，自工业革命以来，规模经济始终是推动经济长期增长的核心载体之一。规模并非静态概 念，而是与技术进步和创新活动相互强化、持续演化的"动态规模经济"。在这一过程中，规模扩张通过 降低成本、提高效率促进技术进步，而技术进步又在新的基础上支撑更大规模的生产与应用，二者形成 正向循环，构成现代经济增长的重要动力。 他认为，当前中国经济面临的问题，并非单一的金融或产业问题，而是金融周期、需求不足与收入 ...

宏观经济研究 2025.12.28 图说中国宏观周报 分行业看贸易盈余 SAC 执证编号：S0080520110001 SFC CE Ref：BRF442 yuchi.zheng@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080520080004 SFC CE Ref：BRG436 wenjing.huang@cicc.com.cn 特别观察 中国商品贸易顺差继续上升，但服务贸易持续逆差，截至今年 9 月，滚动 12 个月的经常账户与 GDP 之比低于 3.5% ，外部失衡不算非常显著。金融周期下行推升贸易顺差，这是因为，社会资源配置往 高效率的高端制造业领域倾斜，技术进步提速，叠加房地产调整导致非贸易品价格下降，降低贸易品 的中间投入成本，促进了出口。另一方面，私人部门去杠杆抑制了需求，从而使得进口放缓，而制造 业升级也使得部分行业国产化程度上升，带动进口下降。具体分行业情况见下。 出口上升、进口下降，推动商品贸易顺差上升。2025 年 1-11 月中国海关口径商品贸易顺差为 10758 亿美元，创历史新高，同比增速为 21%。出口方面，2025 年 1-11 月金额为 34147 亿美元，同比上升 1 ...

·假期将至美指走势维持稳定 ·中金：人民币汇率并未明显低估 ·CME白银隐含波动率飙升至极端高位 ·日本央行会议意见摘要暗示将进一步加息 ·交易员警惕干预风险泰铢创5月以来最大跌幅 ·美元走弱叠加国内政局稳定南非兰特有望录得2009年以来最大年度涨幅 【机构分析】 ·机构分析认为，在清淡的假期行情中，由于缺乏新的催化剂，美元兑一篮子货币汇率持稳。本周经济 日历上重要数据不多，且多个市场将因元旦休市。随着月末和年末临近，美元仓位可能出现一些调整。 美元指数现基本持平，报98.01。数据显示，美元指数年内迄今已下跌近10%。 ·中金公司最新研报指出，汇率走势可能仍与金融周期走势有一定关系。金融周期视角下，中金认为人 民币汇率未明显低估，不过中国股市表现亮眼，叠加美元走弱，人民币汇率阶段性温和回升也有其合理 性。 ·芝商所（CME）白银波动率指数（CVOL）日内一直处于80上方。该指数历史上最高为96.20，最低为 13.97，正常情况在25-35之间波动，当指数>60时，表明白银的波动率已达到极端状态。从12月26日开 始，CME白银波动率指数就突破60，并一路走高，在12月28日开盘后更是跳空上涨至80上方。当 ...

12月29日，中金公司最新研报指出，金融周期是指房价与信贷互相加强而形成的长周期，其上行会压低 经常项目但推升本币汇率，而金融周期下行则推升经常项目并抑制本币汇率。汇率走势可能仍与金融周 期走势有一定关系。房地产天生具有投资品属性，但金融周期不同阶段，中美数据都显示房地产投资品 属性会相应出现变化。近年来中国楼市的投资属性减弱、消费品属性增强。从消费品属性来看，房价收 入比以及租金收益率与按揭利率之差对判断金融周期走势的意义上升。金融周期视角下，中金认为人民 币汇率未明显低估，不过中国股市表现亮眼，叠加美元走弱，人民币汇率阶段性温和回升也有其合理 性。 ...

近期有一种观点认为人民币汇率被明显低估，其主要论据是中国贸易顺差趋势上升或者中国同类商品价格明显低于美国（比如麦当劳的Big Mac）。这类 分析的共同点是从商品定价视角出发判断汇率是否合理，背后是新古典主义思维。在全球外汇交易规模远远超过贸易体量、资本流动波动大的时代，仍然 从商品价格视角来评估汇率无疑与现实差距较大。与此对应，（后）凯恩斯主义从资产价格的视角来分析汇率，不否认实体经济和经常项目的重要性，但 认为在现代金融体系下，资本流动和预期变化构成汇率波动的核心机制，这个思维与现实更为吻合。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 从（后）凯恩斯主义视角来看，我们认为金融周期是导致经常项目与汇率走势出现背离的重要因素，中美数据均显示这个现象。金融周期是指房价与信贷 互相加强而形成的长周期，其上行会压低经常项目但推升本币汇率，而金融周期下行则推升经常项目并抑制本币汇率。比如，过去几年中国处于金融周期 下行阶段，社会资源配置往高效率领域（比如高端制造业）倾斜，技术进步提速，支撑出口。此外，楼市调整导致以房地产为代表的非贸易品价格下降， 降低贸易品的中间投入成本，也促进了出口。同时，金融周期下行期，市 ...

中金研究 中国商品贸易顺差继续上升，但服务贸易持续逆差，截至今年9月，滚动12个月的经常账户与GDP之比低于3.5%，外部失衡不算非常显著。金融周期下 行推升贸易顺差，这是因为，社会资源配置往高效率的高端制造业领域倾斜，技术进步提速，叠加房地产调整导致非贸易品价格下降，降低贸易品的 中间投入成本，促进了出口。另一方面，私人部门去杠杆抑制了需求，从而使得进口放缓，而制造业升级也使得部分行业国产化程度上升，带动进口 下降。具体分行业情况见下。 点击小程序查看报告原文 出口上升、进口下降，推动商品贸易顺差上升。 2025年1-11月中国海关口径商品贸易顺差为10758亿美元，创历史新高，同比增速为21%。出口方面， 2025年1-11月金额为34147亿美元，同比上升1746亿美元，同比增速为5.4%；进口方面，2025年1-11月金额为23388亿美元，同比下降130亿美元，同比增 速为-0.6%。两者共同作用下，推动商品贸易顺差上升。而从截至2025年9月的滚动12个月的贸易顺差、出口和进口占GDP比重来看，2025年9月为6.0%， 同比上升1.3个百分点，其中出口上升贡献0.6个百分点，进口下降贡献0.7个 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between the traditional neoclassical exchange rate models and the realities of modern financial systems, emphasizing the need to consider financial factors alongside real economic indicators when assessing exchange rates [2][3][6]. Exchange Rate Framework - The neoclassical framework emphasizes real economic factors while downplaying the impact of financial factors on exchange rates, which may lead to significant misjudgments in exchange rate assessments [3][6]. - In contrast, post-Keynesian economics posits that capital flows and expectations are the core mechanisms driving exchange rate fluctuations, especially in a highly financialized economy [3][6][15]. Types of Exchange Rates - There are three main forms of exchange rates: bilateral exchange rates (especially against the US dollar), nominal effective exchange rates, and real effective exchange rates, with the latter being crucial for analyzing the impact on trade [5][6]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - Estimating the so-called "equilibrium value" of exchange rates is complex due to the multitude of bilateral and multilateral factors involved, with traditional models often failing to account for the significant role of capital flows [6][12]. - The post-Keynesian perspective argues that capital flows dominate exchange rate determination, as evidenced by the vast scale of foreign exchange market transactions compared to international trade [14][15]. Historical Context and Examples - Historical instances, such as the volatility of the US dollar post-Bretton Woods and the Asian financial crisis, illustrate the inadequacies of neoclassical models in explaining exchange rate movements [16]. - The article highlights the phenomenon of the Chinese yuan's "internal depreciation and external appreciation" post-2005, which aligns more closely with post-Keynesian theories than with neoclassical assumptions [17][18]. Recent Developments - Recent data indicates that despite improvements in China's manufacturing competitiveness, the real effective exchange rate of the yuan has depreciated by 16% from January 2022 to October 2025, contradicting neoclassical predictions [18].

Exchange Rate Framework - Traditional neoclassical models emphasize real factors while underestimating financial influences on exchange rates[3] - The neoclassical framework often leads to significant misjudgments regarding exchange rate assessments[4] - Post-Keynesian views argue that capital flows and expectations are core mechanisms driving exchange rate fluctuations[10] Capital Flows and Exchange Rates - In 2022, the daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market reached $7.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $32 trillion annual trade volume[15] - The neoclassical perspective struggles to explain persistent trade deficits without corresponding currency depreciation[14] - The post-Keynesian approach better aligns with historical exchange rate volatility and the impact of capital flows[18] Renminbi Exchange Rate Analysis - From January 2022 to October 2025, the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi depreciated by 16%[19] - The phenomenon of "internal depreciation and external appreciation" of the renminbi challenges traditional neoclassical explanations[19] - Financial cycle adjustments have led to reduced demand and downward pressure on prices, affecting the renminbi's exchange rate[20]

Core Viewpoint - The downward trend in interest rates may become a norm for China's financial operations in the near future, and addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates will be a primary task for the financial industry [1] Group 1: Reasons for Interest Rate Decline - The first reason is related to the real economy, where changes in global population structure and slowing technological progress have led to a decline in potential growth rates, resulting in total global savings exceeding total investments, which determines the downward trend of natural interest rates [3][7] - The second reason pertains to the financial system, where large-scale financialization of the real economy has altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy, indicating a shift from traditional economic cycles to financial cycles [3][7] - The third reason involves changes in the paradigm of monetary policy, where central banks are now more decisive in responding to crises, as seen after the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. [3][7] Group 2: Impacts of Interest Rate Decline - The decline in interest rates reduces financial costs for the real economy, providing a positive stimulus for its development, while in the financial sector, lower interest rates lead to a narrowing of interest margins [8] - Additionally, the decline in interest rates may cause funds to flow out of commercial banks' balance sheets, a phenomenon known as "disintermediation," where funds move away from financial intermediaries to the market and non-bank financial institutions [8] - The impact on monetary policy will lead to significant changes in financial structure, with social financing in China increasing from 12.768 trillion yuan in 2015 to 43.772 trillion yuan by October 2025, a 2.42-fold increase over ten years [9] Group 3: Financial Structure Changes - The scale of indirect financing, which includes various types of loans, has increased from 11.055 trillion yuan to 28.617 trillion yuan over the same period, a 1.58-fold increase [9] - The proportion of indirect financing in total social financing has decreased from 86% to 65.3%, a reduction of 21 percentage points over ten years, indicating progress towards the goal of reducing the proportion of indirect financing and increasing direct financing [9][10] - Disintermediation has become a favorable condition for the development of capital markets, although it does not guarantee that capital markets will develop well, as other conditions are also necessary [10]