Core Insights - Lin Hai, a seasoned trader with 20 years of experience, emphasizes the importance of understanding macro policies and market dynamics in trading, leading to his recognition in the high-net-worth group and as an outstanding trader in polysilicon futures and options [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy - The core of Lin Hai's trading philosophy is to "grasp the big contradictions," focusing on major market trends rather than minor fluctuations [2] - He transitioned from stock trading to futures, realizing that both markets share the same profit and loss sources, and that significant profits come from major market movements [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - Lin Hai identified a key opportunity in the polysilicon market, where prices rose from 30,000 yuan/ton to 50,000 yuan/ton, by recognizing that the industry was at a loss and that the "anti-involution" policy would support high-quality development [3] - He noted that the price of polysilicon had fallen below the cost line, indicating a potential for recovery as the industry aimed for higher quality [3] Group 3: Risk Management - Lin Hai advocates for a diversified investment strategy, limiting exposure to any single commodity to no more than 10% to mitigate risks from unexpected market events [4] - His approach combines long-term strategic views with short-term tactical adjustments, focusing on maintaining a comfortable mental state while trading [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 15.31%, with a net profit of 5.63 billion yuan, down by 9.89% [7] - The company's CDMO business is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 20.32% to 12.36 billion yuan, while the raw material drug business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 23.41% to 36.03 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.896 billion yuan, 11.512 billion yuan, and 13.081 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.028 billion yuan, 1.224 billion yuan, and 1.477 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023A was 11,474 million yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, while the forecast for 2025E is 10,896 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.4% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023A was 1,055 million yuan, with a growth rate of 6.7%, and is expected to be 1,028 million yuan in 2025E, showing a slight decline of 0.3% [6][8] - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.73%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points compared to the previous period [7] Business Structure and Strategy - The company has formed a "funnel" model for its CDMO project structure, with 1,180 ongoing projects, of which 377 are in the commercialization stage [7] - The company is advancing its business transformation strategy, focusing on "starting raw materials + registered intermediates + API + formulations," with a total of 134 API projects [7] - The company is accelerating its "multi-variety" strategy in the formulation business, with 68 projects under research, including a semaglutide injection that has entered phase III clinical trials [7]