化学制药 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 1、《业绩基本符合预期，期待头孢 完成出清》2025-05-08 2、《收入稳中有升、CDMO 业务值 得期待》2025-03-17 现稳健》2024-10-18 股价与行业-市场走势对比 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 年实现营业收入 54.44 亿元，同比减少 15.31%，归母净利润 5.63 亿元，同比减少 9.89%，扣非归母净利润 5.21 亿元，同比 减少 13.59%。 收入、利润阶段性承压，API、制剂业务夯实底部，CDMO 业务成长可期。分季度： 2025Q2 实现营业收入 27.14 亿元（同比-15.98%，环比-0.58%，下同），同比去年 高基数承压，归母净利润 3.15 亿元（-17.48%，+26.54%），扣非归母净利润 3.15 亿元（-13.29%，+53.10%），利润端环比 25Q1 明显改善。25H1 业绩阶段性承压主 要由于公司 API、制剂业务受国内部分抗生素品种竞争加剧、供需结构调整致需求疲 软以及集采续约价格冲击等多重因素影响有所下滑。分业务：1）API 中间体：25H1、 2025Q2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 15.31%, with a net profit of 5.63 billion yuan, down by 9.89% [7] - The company's CDMO business is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 20.32% to 12.36 billion yuan, while the raw material drug business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 23.41% to 36.03 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.896 billion yuan, 11.512 billion yuan, and 13.081 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.028 billion yuan, 1.224 billion yuan, and 1.477 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023A was 11,474 million yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, while the forecast for 2025E is 10,896 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.4% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023A was 1,055 million yuan, with a growth rate of 6.7%, and is expected to be 1,028 million yuan in 2025E, showing a slight decline of 0.3% [6][8] - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.73%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points compared to the previous period [7] Business Structure and Strategy - The company has formed a "funnel" model for its CDMO project structure, with 1,180 ongoing projects, of which 377 are in the commercialization stage [7] - The company is advancing its business transformation strategy, focusing on "starting raw materials + registered intermediates + API + formulations," with a total of 134 API projects [7] - The company is accelerating its "multi-variety" strategy in the formulation business, with 68 projects under research, including a semaglutide injection that has entered phase III clinical trials [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 920 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.54% to 72 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The front-end business (drug research) generated revenue of 154 million yuan, down 7.59%, with block revenue at 136 million yuan (down 4.71%) and CRO revenue at 18 million yuan (down 24.69%) [2] - The back-end business (drug development and commercialization) achieved revenue of 765 million yuan, an increase of 32.27%, with block revenue at 217 million yuan (down 8.80%) and CDMO revenue at 548 million yuan (up 60.92%) [2] - The gross margin for the front-end business was 57.29%, down 7.45 percentage points, while the back-end business gross margin was 25.69%, down 8.30 percentage points [2] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Financial Management - The company is focusing on revenue scale expansion and nurturing strategic clients and key projects, leading to a higher increase in operating costs compared to revenue growth [2] - The company improved cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities totaling 467 million yuan, an increase of 240.62% [3] - Revenue from multinational corporations (MNCs) reached 367 million yuan, up 69.73%, enhancing business sustainability [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as the pharmaceutical investment and financing environment improves, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 172 million, 228 million, and 297 million yuan respectively [3] - The company is shifting its project focus towards the back-end, with over 1,100 early-stage projects and 53 phase 3 and commercialization projects serviced in the first half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic CDMO sector, with strong global competitiveness in API, CDMO, and formulation businesses, and is expected to enter a new growth cycle as CDMO business enters an explosive phase and other segments return to long-term growth trajectories [3][6]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business is poised for explosive growth due to stable product quality, strong cost control, and efficient customer service, positioning the company as a core player in global innovative drug CDMO [3]. - Domestic innovation drug industry is thriving, with leading biotech companies emerging, which is expected to drive the company's rapid growth as domestic API projects commercialize [3]. - Long-term partnerships with overseas pharmaceutical giants are anticipated to contribute to sustained revenue and profit growth from both human and veterinary drug projects [3]. Formulation Business - The company is accelerating its "multi-variety" strategy leveraging its integrated API and formulation advantages, with an expected approval of over 15 new formulation products annually starting in 2026 [4]. - Investment in differentiated competition through higher technical barriers in modified new drugs is ongoing, utilizing advanced drug technology platforms to support long-term growth in the formulation business [4]. API Business - The API and intermediate business remains the foundation and largest component of the company's operations, with antibiotics expected to stabilize and rebound in prices from H2 2025 to 2026 [5]. - The veterinary drug sector is nearing a clearing phase, with potential for significant profit elasticity upon price recovery [5]. - The company continues to expand its slow disease API product pipeline, ensuring growth through capacity and technical advantages [5]. - The aesthetic medicine segment is expected to grow rapidly through diversified product offerings and deepening collaborations with leading clients [5].

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on identifying and investing in pharmaceutical advanced manufacturing companies that have global competitive advantages and are poised for growth due to market integration and emerging demand [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach emphasizes steady performance and the importance of companies that can deliver profits, rather than speculative investments [2][3]. - The strategy involves identifying companies that have completed their first growth curve and are in a dormant phase, which may present good buying opportunities [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is unique due to high compliance costs and registration barriers, which create a competitive moat for leading companies [4]. - The raw material drug industry is expected to see continuous opportunities due to the lifecycle of drugs and the ongoing demand for new products [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - Companies in the raw material drug, device consumables, and CDMO sectors are anticipated to experience operational efficiency improvements and profit surges as new orders and clients emerge [5]. - The innovative drug sector is currently facing challenges in profit realization, with significant uncertainties regarding large-scale profit generation [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a belief that the innovative drug industry will continue to develop, presenting valuable investment opportunities in the future [6]. - The potential for significant growth in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is highlighted, particularly for companies that can adapt to new market demands and integrate effectively [4][5].

Group 1: Company Performance and Financials - As of May 13, the number of shareholders and average shareholding amount were not disclosed, but investors were advised to check the company's periodic reports for details [3] - The company aims to improve its operational management and performance to achieve a turnaround in the second quarter [3] - The company reported a 15.64% decline in domestic revenue and a 26.60% decline in international revenue, attributed to increased competition and global economic uncertainties [8] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) for Dapagliflozin has begun quantitative production, and the company expects to receive approval for the European registration of Brilinta by the end of September [3] - The company is focusing on the development of stem cell therapies for myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction, with ongoing work for domestic IND registration [3][8] - The company plans to expand its market presence in 2025 by entering more customer supply chains and enhancing existing customer relationships [8] Group 3: Investor Relations and Shareholder Communication - The company emphasizes the importance of communication with investors through various channels, including performance briefings and investor hotlines [3][6] - The company has conducted a share buyback of 3,244,700 shares, totaling approximately ¥57.06 million, to support its equity incentive plan [8][9] - Shareholder sell-offs are attributed to personal financial planning rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future [9]